PolandSzczecin - PolandFinished

Predictions graded

Tom Gentzsch #185Germany2Alan Wazny #827Poland1

Sets 7-5 · 6-7 · 6-0Mon 14 Sept 2026, 17:20 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions5–363%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageTom Gentzsch · 642 places

Tom Gentzsch

Germany

Reached a career-high No. 185 on August 3, 2026. Two of his three Challenger finals have come on clay, but no reliable source explicitly identifies a preferred surface.

Current ranking: #185
Peak ranking: #185 · 2026
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Alan Wazny

Poland

Wazny, 19, is a right-hander from Rzeszów. His ATP-supplied profile lists a best singles ranking of No. 827; no reliable source identifies a preferred surface.

Current ranking: #827
Peak ranking: #827
Current age: 19
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Sep 2026, 04:45 · Europe/Bucharest

Tom Gentzsch is a strong favorite over Alan Wazny due to superior ranking, recent form, and clay pedigree.

The match winner market offers no value at 1.12, but Gentzsch winning in straight sets and under 21.5 total games are solid angles. Watch for aces over 8.5 as a low-confidence play.

Context

Gentzsch, ranked 145, is the higher-ranked player and has a career clay win percentage above 60%.
His recent clay results include wins over players ranked inside the top 200, while Wazny's wins have come mostly against unranked or lower-ranked opponents. This suggests Gentzsch is better equipped to handle the level of this Challenger first round.
- Gentzsch last 15 on clay: 9-4 record, 69.2% win rate.
- Wazny last 15 on clay: 7-8 record, 46.7% win rate.
- Gentzsch's recent clay wins include victories over No. 118 Piros and No. 178 Kym.
- Wazny's recent clay wins include opponents ranked outside the top 500 or unranked.
Gentzsch's height (191 cm) and first-serve effectiveness give him free points on clay.
Wazny's lower ace count and first-serve win rate mean he will likely face more pressure on his service games. If Gentzsch maintains his serving level, he can control rallies from the start.
- Gentzsch clay last 15: 6.8 aces per match, 74.4% first-serve points won.
- Wazny clay last 15: 2.3 aces per match, 68% first-serve points won.
- Gentzsch's first-serve percentage is 64.3% on clay, slightly above Wazny's 59.5%.
Wazny, ranked 827, has struggled against modest opposition in recent weeks.
His losses to No. 854 Juszczak, No. 900 Pieczonka, and No. 355 Pereira suggest he is not yet competitive at this Challenger level. Gentzsch's wins over higher-ranked players indicate he should be the more reliable performer.
- Wazny lost to No. 854 Juszczak 5-7 6-3 7-5 on September 3.
- Wazny lost to No. 900 Pieczonka 6-3 6-4 on August 25.
- Wazny lost to No. 355 Pereira 6-2 6-4 on July 31.
- Gentzsch beat No. 118 Piros and No. 178 Kym in August.
Alan Wazny, ranked No. 827, enters this Szczecin Challenger main draw as a wildcard.
He has not played a qualifying match this week, so he arrives without that extra workload, but the wildcard itself does not change his recent form or ranking gap against Gentzsch.
- The tournament confirmed Wazny as a main-draw wildcard recipient.
- Stored recent sample: 2 wins from 5 tracked matches.
ConfirmedSources checked 13 Sep 2026, 04:44 · Europe/BucharestInvest in Szczecin Open 2026szczecinopen.pl · 8 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Tom Gentzsch

1.12fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 89.3%

0.0ppshort

Gentzsch's superior recent form, clay pedigree, and ranking gap make him a strong favorite.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.12
The read
Gentzsch's superior recent form, clay pedigree, and ranking gap make him a strong favorite.
- Gentzsch last15 overall record 10-5 (66.7%), Wazny 7-8 (46.7%)
- Gentzsch clay last15 record 9-4 (69.2%), Wazny clay last15 7-8 (46.7%)
- Gentzsch ranking 145 vs Wazny 827
- Gentzsch career clay wins 136 vs Wazny 19
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonTom GentzschEstimated chance72%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Gentzsch's ability to win in straight sets and moderate game totals suggests a shorter match.
- Gentzsch last15 average games per match 24.7, Wazny 23.2
- Gentzsch clay last15 average games per match 25.2
- Gentzsch has won 6 of last 15 matches in straight sets
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 21.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent first sets have been close, making over 9.5 games plausible.
- Gentzsch last15 first set average games 9.9
- Wazny last15 first set average games 9.7
- Both players have competitive first sets in recent matches
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets have trended toward longer games, supporting the over.
- Gentzsch last15 second set average games 9.8
- Wazny last15 second set average games 9.5
- Second sets have often been competitive
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Gentzsch's higher set win rate and strong first-set conversion support taking the opener.
- Gentzsch first-set win conversion career 85%
- Gentzsch last15 sets won 62.2% vs Wazny 52.8%
- Gentzsch clay last15 sets won 63.6%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonTom GentzschEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Gentzsch's consistent set-level edge should carry into the second set.
- Gentzsch last15 sets won 62.2% vs Wazny 52.8%
- Gentzsch clay last15 sets won 63.6%
- Gentzsch break point conversion 44.6% vs Wazny 52.9% but Gentzsch creates more opportunities
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostTom GentzschEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Gentzsch's tendency to win in straight sets and Wazny's straight-set losses point to a two-set match.
- Gentzsch last15 straight-set wins: 6 of 10 wins
- Wazny last15 straight-set losses: 5 of 8 losses
- Gentzsch clay last15 straight-set wins: 5 of 9 wins
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Gentzsch's ace rate alone nearly covers the line, with Wazny adding a few.
- Gentzsch last15 aces per match 7.0
- Wazny last15 aces per match 2.3
- Combined average 9.3 aces per match
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined double fault rates exceed the line, especially on clay.
- Gentzsch last15 double faults per match 4.2
- Wazny last15 double faults per match 2.7
- Combined average 6.9 double faults per match
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance52%

Tom Gentzsch

10W 5L

6-3 7-6(1)#422Massimo Giunta

7-6(4) 6-4#207Francesco Passaro

7-5 6-3#210Pol Martin Tiffon

6-4 7-6(4)#178Jerome Kym

6-4 6-4#118Zsombor Piros

6-3 7-6(5)#215Henri Squire

6-1 1-6 6-1#221Chun Hsin Tseng

6-3 6-7(5) 6-4#280Thiago Moura Monteiro

6-4 3-6 7-6(8)#888Max Dahlin

6-3 6-3#282Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva

6-2 6-7(5) 6-3#158Gauthier Onclin

4-6 6-2 6-0#257Andrej Nedic

6-7(3) 7-5 6-4#342Dali Blanch

6-4 4-6 6-0#213Guy Den Ouden

7-5 6-4#186Jan Kumstat

Alan Wazny

7W 8L

5-7 6-3 7-5#854Pawel Juszczak

6-1 6-3—Jan Sadzik

6-3 6-4#900Filip Pieczonka

6-3 3-6 7-6(3)—Jan Sadzik

7-6(5) 6-1#847Benito Sanchez Martinez

6-2 7-6(3)#186Jan Kumstat

0-6 6-4 6-4#854Pawel Juszczak

6-2 6-4#355Tiago Pereira

6-2 6-3—Noel Larwig

6-4 6-4—Andrea Brignacca

7-5 4-6 6-0#310Igor Ribeiro Marcondes

6-4 3-6 7-5—Kacper Szymkowiak

4-6 6-4 6-2#719Herman Hoeyeraal

7-6(6) 6-3#580Karol Filar

6-2 6-4—Oliwier Sterniczuk

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

TGTom GentzschGentzsch

Last 15

5–4

9 core stats · 0 even

Alan WaznyWaznyAW

Tom Gentzsch carries the stronger recent form — Alan Wazny's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In64.0%+4.5pp59.5%

1st Serve Won74.8%+6.8pp68.0%

2nd Serve Won46.7%+5.9pp52.6%

Aces / Match7.0+4.72.3

Double Faults / Match4.21.5 fewer2.7

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won39.6%+1.1pp38.5%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted44.6%+8.3pp52.9%

Break Pts Saved60.5%+4.2pp64.7%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won51.7%+1.3pp50.4%

Serve · 3–2

64.0%1st Serve In+4.5pp59.5%

74.8%1st Serve Won+6.8pp68.0%

46.7%2nd Serve Won+5.9pp52.6%

7.0Aces / Match+4.72.3

4.2Double Faults / Match1.5 fewer2.7

Return · 1–0

39.6%Return Pts Won+1.1pp38.5%

Pressure · 0–2

44.6%Break Pts Converted+8.3pp52.9%

60.5%Break Pts Saved+4.2pp64.7%

Points · 1–0

51.7%Total Pts Won+1.3pp50.4%