PolandSzczecin - PolandFinished

Predictions graded

Tom Gentzsch #185Germany2Martin Krumich #255Czechia0

Sets 6-3 · 6-4Wed 16 Sept 2026, 13:10 Predictions gradedSecond RoundClay

Predictions2–433%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageTom Gentzsch · 70 places

Tom Gentzsch

Germany

Reached a career-high No. 185 on August 3, 2026. Two of his three Challenger finals have come on clay, but no reliable source explicitly identifies a preferred surface.

Current ranking: #185
Peak ranking: #185 · 2026
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Martin Krumich

Czechia

Krumich is a 23-year-old Czech right-hander. ITF records list clay as his preferred surface and No. 268 as his career-high ATP singles ranking, reached in June 2026.

Current ranking: #255
Peak ranking: #268 · 2026
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 15 Sep 2026, 03:23 · Europe/Bucharest

Gentzsch is the favorite based on better recent form, a 3-1 H2H lead, and a stronger serve, but the odds offer no value.

The match is likely to be competitive, with over 21.5 total games and over 9.5 games in the first set as the best low-confidence betting angles.

Context

Gentzsch, ranked 145, has built his ranking on clay with a 26-13 record on the surface in 2026.
His recent clay numbers are clearly better than Krumich's: he wins 69.2% of clay matches and 54.2% of games, while Krumich wins 53.3% and 50.9%. Gentzsch also returns serve better on clay, winning 41.2% of return points to Krumich's 40.5%. This suggests Gentzsch should control baseline rallies and create more break chances.
- Gentzsch last 15 on clay: 9-4 record, 54.2% games won, 41.2% return points won.
- Krumich last 15 on clay: 8-7 record, 50.9% games won, 40.5% return points won.
The two have met four times since July 2025, with Gentzsch winning the last three.
Gentzsch's 3-1 edge includes a 6-4 5-7 6-4 clay win in April 2026, showing he can beat Krumich on this surface. Krumich's only win came on clay in July 2025, but Gentzsch has since adjusted. This history gives Gentzsch a psychological and tactical edge.
- H2H: Gentzsch leads 3-1 overall, 1-1 on clay.
- Most recent meeting: Gentzsch won 6-4 5-7 6-4 on clay in April 2026.
Krumich, ranked 263, has struggled to capitalize on break chances recently.
In his last 15 matches, Krumich has converted just 33.8% of break points, while Gentzsch has converted 44.6%. If Krumich cannot improve that number, he may waste opportunities against Gentzsch's solid serve, which wins 72.9% of first-serve points.
- Krumich last 15: 33.8% break points converted (44/130).
- Gentzsch last 15: 44.6% break points converted (50/112).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Tom Gentzsch

1.60fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 62.5%

0.0ppshort

Gentzsch's superior recent overall and clay record plus a 3-1 H2H lead support his favoritism, but the odds are slightly below the model estimate.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Gentzsch has superior recent form and a positive H2H edge, supported by stronger clay performance in the last 15 matches.
- Last 15 overall record: 10-5 (66.7%) vs Krumich 8-7 (53.3%)
- Clay last 15 record: 9-4 (69.2%) vs Krumich 8-7 (53.3%)
- H2H: Gentzsch leads 3-1, including 2 wins in 2026
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonTom GentzschEstimated chance62%

Games0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have competitive recent matches, and the H2H suggests a close contest likely to exceed 21.5 games.
- Gentzsch last 15 average games per match: 25.3
- Krumich last 15 average games per match: 21.1
- H2H matches averaged 23.5 games
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
First sets between these players have consistently been close, supporting a total above 9.5 games.
- Gentzsch last 15 first set average games: 9.8
- Krumich last 15 first set average games: 9.3
- H2H first sets: 10, 9, 10, 10 games
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Gentzsch's stronger recent serve performance and H2H advantage make him a slight favorite to take the opening set.
- Gentzsch first set win conversion career: 85% vs Krumich 87%
- Gentzsch last 15 first serve points won: 72.9% vs Krumich 71.9%
- H2H: Gentzsch won first set in 2 of 3 wins
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonTom GentzschEstimated chance58%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined ace rates suggest a total above 10.5 is plausible, though confidence is low due to variability.
- Gentzsch last 15 aces per match: 7.0
- Krumich last 15 aces per match: 4.1
- Combined average aces per match: 11.1
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 10.5Estimated chance50%

Prediction history

Tom Gentzsch has been highly reliable when projected to win

Tom Gentzsch has fulfilled 7 of 9 recent win projections, a 78% success rate. His average estimated probability was 62.4%, with an expected 5.6 wins, so he outperformed expectation by 1.4 wins. The two misses both came as losses, with no draws or subject wins, indicating that when he fails, he tends to lose outright.

Recent evidence for Tom Gentzsch9 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

30 Jul·Bonn - Germany

#186Tom Gentzsch1-2#883Max Dahlin

BetBugsTom Gentzsch to win·62%

Missed

30 Jul 2026

Bonn - Germany

#186Tom Gentzsch1-2#883Max Dahlin

Tom Gentzsch to win

62%probability

Max Dahlin won

Missed

28 Jul·Bonn - Germany

#186Tom Gentzsch2-0#259Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva

BetBugsTom Gentzsch to win·62%

Matched

28 Jul 2026

Bonn - Germany

#186Tom Gentzsch2-0#259Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva

Tom Gentzsch to win

62%probability

Tom Gentzsch won

Matched

21 Jul·Tampere - Finland

#302Dali Blanch1-2#212Tom Gentzsch

BetBugsTom Gentzsch to win·58%

Matched

21 Jul 2026

Tampere - Finland

#302Dali Blanch1-2#212Tom Gentzsch

Tom Gentzsch to win

58%probability

Tom Gentzsch won

Matched

17 Jul·Bunschoten - Netherlands

#212Tom Gentzsch2-1#244Max Houkes

BetBugsTom Gentzsch to win·58%

Matched

17 Jul 2026

Bunschoten - Netherlands

#212Tom Gentzsch2-1#244Max Houkes

Tom Gentzsch to win

58%probability

Tom Gentzsch won

Matched

15 Jul·Bunschoten - Netherlands

#212Tom Gentzsch2-0#696Pieter De Lange

BetBugsTom Gentzsch to win·72%

Matched

15 Jul 2026

Bunschoten - Netherlands

#212Tom Gentzsch2-0#696Pieter De Lange

Tom Gentzsch to win

72%probability

Tom Gentzsch won

Matched

Head-to-Head

3-1 (4 meetings)

W6-4 5-7 6-4Tom Gentzsch#145vMartin Krumich#263Apr 12, 2026

W6-3 6-4Tom Gentzsch#145vMartin Krumich#263Feb 5, 2026

W4-6 6-3 7-6(3)Tom Gentzsch#145vMartin Krumich#263Jan 7, 2026

L6-4 6-2Tom Gentzsch#145vMartin Krumich#263Jul 14, 2025

Tom Gentzsch dominates (4 meetings)4 total meetings

Previous match context available

Tom Gentzsch

10W 5L

7-5 6-7(3) 6-0#813Alan Wazny

6-3 7-6(1)#386Massimo Giunta

7-6(4) 6-4#207Francesco Passaro

7-5 6-3#210Pol Martin Tiffon

6-4 7-6(4)#178Jerome Kym

6-4 6-4#116Zsombor Piros

6-3 7-6(5)#215Henri Squire

6-1 1-6 6-1#221Chun Hsin Tseng

6-3 6-7(5) 6-4#280Thiago Moura Monteiro

6-4 3-6 7-6(8)#896Max Dahlin

6-3 6-3#282Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva

6-2 6-7(5) 6-3#158Gauthier Onclin

4-6 6-2 6-0#257Andrej Nedic

6-7(3) 7-5 6-4#342Dali Blanch

6-4 4-6 6-0#213Guy Den Ouden

Martin Krumich

8W 7L

6-2 6-2—Kacper Knitter

6-2 6-4#175Zdenek Kolar

3-6 6-4 6-3#358Sebastian Sorger

6-3 6-4#198Thiago Seyboth Wild

6-2 6-4#283Sandro Kopp

4-6 6-4 6-1#562Svyatoslav Gulin

6-2 6-3#273Dominic Stricker

2-6 6-4 6-4#580Javier Barranco Cosano

6-3 6-2#236Sumit Nagal

6-2 6-3#171Joel Schwaerzler

2-6 6-4 6-2#276Philip Henning

6-3 6-7(7) 6-2#161Max Alcala Gurri

6-4 6-2#147Stefano Travaglia

6-4 6-3#207Francesco Passaro

6-4 6-2#239Frederico Ferreira Silva

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

TGTom GentzschGentzsch

Last 15

5–2

9 core stats · 2 even

Martin KrumichKrumichMK

Tom Gentzsch carries the stronger recent form — Martin Krumich's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

1st Serve In64.3%+9.6pp54.7%

1st Serve Won72.9%+1.0pp71.9%

2nd Serve Won48.0%—48.3%

Aces / Match7.0+2.94.1

Double Faults / Match4.11.8 fewer2.3

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won40.6%—40.5%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted44.6%+10.8pp33.8%

Break Pts Saved58.8%+3.1pp61.9%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won51.9%+1.3pp50.6%

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

64.3%1st Serve In+9.6pp54.7%

72.9%1st Serve Won+1.0pp71.9%

48.0%2nd Serve Won—48.3%

7.0Aces / Match+2.94.1

4.1Double Faults / Match1.8 fewer2.3

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

40.6%Return Pts Won—40.5%

Pressure · 1–1

44.6%Break Pts Converted+10.8pp33.8%

58.8%Break Pts Saved+3.1pp61.9%

Points · 1–0

51.9%Total Pts Won+1.3pp50.6%