BrazilWTA Sao PauloFinished

Predictions graded

Anna Blinkova #108Russia2Alina Charaeva #112Armenia0

Sets 6-4 · 7-5Fri 18 Sept 2026, 18:10 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalHard

Predictions5–271%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAnna Blinkova · 4 places

Anna Blinkova

Russia

Reached a career-high ranking of No. 34. No reliable current physical-availability or preferred-surface detail was found in the requested searches.

Current ranking: #108
Peak ranking: #34
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 179 cm

Alina Charaeva

Armenia

The WTA lists Charaeva at a career-high No. 112 in July 2026. The ITF identifies hard courts as her preferred surface.

Current ranking: #112
Peak ranking: #112 · 2026
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 18 Sep 2026, 03:12 · Europe/Bucharest

Blinkova is the deserved favorite on Hard-court form and serve/return structure, but at 1.50 the match-winner offers negative value versus a 62% model estimate.

The best angles are Over 9.5 double faults (60%) and Over 21.5 games (58%), while backing Charaeva at 2.60 is a clear avoid.

Context

Blinkova, 27, is the higher-ranked player at No. 94 and has spent most of her career on hard courts, where she has 139 tour-level wins. Charaeva, 24, is ranked No. 133 and has built her 2026 season mainly on clay, with only six hard-court wins this year.
The two recent hard-court records are close enough that the ranking gap does not translate into a clear form advantage. Blinkova's 66.7% hard-court win rate over the last 15 matches is only marginally better than Charaeva's 57.1%, and both have similar games-won percentages, so this looks like a match decided by small margins rather than one player's recent level.
- Blinkova is 10-5 on hard courts in her last 15 matches, a 66.7% win rate, with 56.9% of games won.
- Charaeva is 9-6 on hard courts in her last 15 matches, a 60% win rate, with 52.7% of games won.
- Both players have played all 15 of their recent matches on hard courts, so the samples are directly comparable.
Charaeva, 23, is the WTA No. 133 right-hander and the away player in this São Paulo quarterfinal. Her opener against Xiaodi You on September 16 went three sets, 3-6, 7-6(5), 6-3, and she won again the next day against Elina Avanesyan.
Blinkova's first two matches in São Paulo were straight-set wins, so Charaeva has spent more time on court getting to this round. That gap is a workload fact rather than proof of fatigue, and it matters most if the quarterfinal runs long or goes to a third set.
- The opening-round win over You was identified as a marathon and required three sets before Charaeva completed the second round the following day.
- Stored recent sample: 3 wins from 5 tracked matches.
ConfirmedSources checked 18 Sep 2026, 03:11 · Europe/BucharestWTA player profilewww.wtatennis.com · 18 Sep 2026SP Open 2026 official drawwww.wtatennis.com · 18 Sep 2026
Charaeva, 24, is ranked No. 133 and has played most of her 2026 tennis on clay, where her serve is less of a weapon. Blinkova, 27 and ranked No. 94, has a more hard-court-oriented career and a slightly more reliable first serve.
Charaeva's higher ace rate gives her more free points on serve, but her 5.6 double faults per match is the highest in this matchup and creates extra pressure on her second serve. Blinkova's lower ace count is offset by fewer double faults, so the server who manages the second ball better may control the baseline exchanges.
- Charaeva averages 3.9 aces and 5.6 double faults per match across her last 15 matches.
- Blinkova averages 2.5 aces and 4.8 double faults per match across her last 15 matches.
- Charaeva's first-serve points won (62.1%) and second-serve points won (45.7%) are both slightly below Blinkova's 64% and 40.8% respectively.
Charaeva, 24, has played a heavy schedule in 2026, including 17 clay-court wins and several three-set matches. Blinkova, 27, has played a more typical hard-court schedule with shorter matches.
Charaeva has played roughly 30 more minutes per match than Blinkova over the last 15, including a three-set win over Xiaodi You in the previous round. If this quarter-final becomes physical, Blinkova's lighter recent load could give her an edge in the later stages, though Charaeva has shown she can win long matches.
- Charaeva's last 15 matches average 129.6 minutes, including a 3-6 7-6(5) 6-3 win over Xiaodi You in the round of 16.
- Blinkova's last 15 matches average 99.7 minutes, with her longest recent match a 6-0 2-6 7-5 loss to Claire Liu.
- Charaeva has played three three-set matches in her last 15, while Blinkova has played two.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Anna Blinkova

1.50fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 66.7%

0.0ppshort

Blinkova's stronger Hard-court serve/return structure and cleaner straight-set form are real, but the quoted price already overprices her relative to the model estimate.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Blinkova holds the stronger recent Hard-court serve/return structure and cleaner straight-set form, while Charaeva's longer three-set workload and higher double-fault rate add risk; surface-fit and recent-form signals favor the home player.
- Last-15 overall record 10-2 (66.7%) with 22 of 34 sets won (64.7%), all 15 matches on Hard (matchesTracked=15).
- Hard-court serve/return split: 64.0% first-serve points won, 50.2% return points won, 58.8% break points saved over the same 15-match window.
- Recent form: straight-set wins over Valdmannova (6-3 6-0) and Carol Young Suh Lee (6-1 6-3) in Sao Paulo, plus 6-2 6-2 over Julia Riera on Sep 11.
- Charaeva's last-15 Hard sample is 4-3 with 45.7% return points won and 6.1 double faults per match (7 matches tracked).
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAnna BlinkovaEstimated chance62%

Games1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Charaeva's long recent matches and Blinkova's tendency toward competitive three-setters push the total games line upward, supported by both players' recent workload and duration data.
- Blinkova's last-15 average match duration is 99.7 minutes with 304 games across 15 matches (20.3 games/match).
- Charaeva's last-15 average duration is 129.6 minutes with 370 games across 15 matches (24.7 games/match).
- Charaeva's Sao Paulo run includes a 3-6 7-6(5) 6-3 three-setter and a 3-6 7-6(5) 6-3 win over You.
- Both players' recent Hard matches frequently extend past 20 games (Blinkova's 6-0 2-6 7-5 loss to Claire Liu).
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance58%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Blinkova's fast starts and superior first-serve efficiency on Hard give her the edge to take the opening set, though Charaeva's resilience keeps this at medium confidence.
- Blinkova won the opening set in 4 of her last 5 completed matches (Valdmannova 6-3, Suh Lee 6-1, Jacquemot 6-1, Riera 6-2).
- Career first-set win conversion 86% (careerStats) versus Charaeva's 90% but on a much smaller recent sample.
- Charaeva dropped the first set in her Sao Paulo opener against Xiaodi You (3-6) before recovering in three.
- Blinkova's last-15 first-serve points won on Hard is 64.0% (636 points tracked).
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonAnna BlinkovaEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent profiles show a tendency toward extended matches, with Charaeva's three-set history and Blinkova's set-dropping pattern supporting a three-set outcome.
- Charaeva has played three-set matches in 4 of her last 8 completed matches (You, Bartunkova, Kraus, Sorribes Tormo).
- Blinkova's last-15 sets won is 22 of 34 (64.7%), indicating she frequently drops at least one set.
- Charaeva's deciding-set win rate is 58% (careerStats) and she has shown comeback ability in Sao Paulo.
- Blinkova's deciding-set win rate is 53% (careerStats), suggesting close matches are common.
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' high double-fault rates, especially Charaeva's 6.1 per match on Hard, make the over 9.5 line well-supported by recent serve statistics.
- Blinkova averages 4.8 double faults per match over her last 15 matches (72 in 15).
- Charaeva averages 5.6 double faults per match over her last 15 matches (84 in 15), and 6.1 per match on Hard.
- Combined recent average is approximately 10.4 double faults per match.
- Both players have first-serve percentages below 60% in the last 15 matches, increasing double-fault risk.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches frequently feature tiebreaks, and their near-even tiebreak records suggest a competitive match likely to produce at least one tiebreak.
- Blinkova's recent matches include a 7-6(5) set against Jacquemot and a 7-6(6) set against Zakharova.
- Charaeva's recent matches include a 7-6(5) set against You and a 6-7(5) set against Aksu.
- Both players have tiebreak win percentages near 50% (Blinkova 51%, Charaeva 49%).
- Charaeva's last-15 average match duration is 129.6 minutes, indicating extended sets.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Charaeva's higher ace rate on Hard and Blinkova's moderate serve numbers suggest the combined ace total could exceed 7.5, though both players' modest first-serve percentages keep this at low confidence.
- Charaeva averages 3.9 aces per match over her last 15 matches (58 aces in 15 matches).
- Blinkova averages 2.5 aces per match over her last 15 matches (38 aces in 15 matches).
- Combined recent average is approximately 6.4 aces per match, but Charaeva's Hard-court average is 4.4 per match.
- Blinkova's first-serve percentage is 59.6% and Charaeva's is 58.8%, limiting ace potential.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance52%

Prediction history

Anna Blinkova has been reliable when projected to win, fulfilling 5 of 7 recent match-winner projections

Anna Blinkova fulfilled 5 of 7 recent match-winner projections, a 71% rate. Her two missed results were both losses, and those misses came at a higher average estimated probability (70) than her matches (58.4), suggesting the strongest projections were the ones that failed. The current 62% projection sits within her historical range of 55% to 78%.

Recent evidence for Anna Blinkova7 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

1 Aug·WTA Toronto

#104Anna Blinkova2-0#475Heather Watson

BetBugsAnna Blinkova to win·55%

Matched

1 Aug 2026

WTA Toronto

#104Anna Blinkova2-0#475Heather Watson

Anna Blinkova to win

55%probability

Anna Blinkova won

Matched

10 Jul·WTA Contrexeville

#114Anna Blinkova0-2#364Aurora Zantedeschi

BetBugsAnna Blinkova to win·78%

Missed

10 Jul 2026

WTA Contrexeville

#114Anna Blinkova0-2#364Aurora Zantedeschi

Anna Blinkova to win

78%probability

Aurora Zantedeschi won

Missed

8 Jul·WTA Contrexeville

#114Anna Blinkova2-0#232Maria Lourdes Carle

BetBugsAnna Blinkova to win·58%

Matched

8 Jul 2026

WTA Contrexeville

#114Anna Blinkova2-0#232Maria Lourdes Carle

Anna Blinkova to win

58%probability

Anna Blinkova won

Matched

20 Jun·WTA Bad Homburg

#106Anna Blinkova2-0#191Julia Avdeeva

BetBugsAnna Blinkova to win·62%

Matched

20 Jun 2026

WTA Bad Homburg

#106Anna Blinkova2-0#191Julia Avdeeva

Anna Blinkova to win

62%probability

Anna Blinkova won

Matched

15 Jun·WTA Nottingham

#105Anna Blinkova1-2#126Taylah Preston

BetBugsAnna Blinkova to win·62%

Missed

15 Jun 2026

WTA Nottingham

#105Anna Blinkova1-2#126Taylah Preston

Anna Blinkova to win

62%probability

Taylah Preston won

Missed

Previous match context available

Anna Blinkova

10W 5L

6-3 6-0#153Vendula Valdmannova

6-1 6-3#136Carol Young Suh Lee 6-0 2-6 7-5#96Claire Liu 6-1 7-6(5)#156Elsa Jacquemot

6-2 6-2#144Julia Riera

7-5 6-1#317Nadia Podoroska

6-1 6-0#819Valentina Mediorreal Arias

6-4 6-3#22Anna Kalinskaya

7-6(6) 6-0#109Anastasia Zakharova

6-7(5) 6-4 7-5#21Ekaterina Alexandrova

1-6 6-2 6-3#88Mananchaya Sawangkaew

3-6 6-2 6-2#99Eva Lys

6-3 6-4#125Dominika Salkova

6-3 6-3#146Rebecca Sramkova

6-2 7-5#385Heather Watson

Alina Charaeva

9W 6L

6-2 6-3#155Elina Avanesyan 3-6 7-6(5) 6-3#207Xiaodi You

6-4 6-4#143Susan Bandecchi

4-6 6-4 6-3#34Nikola Bartunkova

6-3 6-3#618Rebecca Marino

6-1 7-6(3)#69Anna Bondar

5-7 7-5 7-5#95Sinja Kraus

3-6 7-5 6-1#193Sara Sorribes Tormo

6-3 6-3#78Yulia Putintseva

6-0 6-1#173Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva

4-6 6-4 6-1#103Polina Kudermetova

5-7 6-4 6-0#267Caroline Werner

6-2 6-4#167Elizabeth Mandlik

6-3 6-7(5) 7-6(4)#203Ayla Aksu

5-7 6-2 7-5#143Susan Bandecchi

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

ABAnna BlinkovaBlinkova

Last 15

7–2

9 core stats · 0 even

Alina CharaevaCharaevaAC

Anna Blinkova carries the stronger recent form — Alina Charaeva's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In59.6%+0.8pp58.8%

1st Serve Won64.0%+1.9pp62.1%

2nd Serve Won40.8%+4.9pp45.7%

Aces / Match2.5+1.43.9

Double Faults / Match4.80.8 fewer5.6

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won50.2%+3.9pp46.3%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted50.3%+0.9pp49.4%

Break Pts Saved58.8%+5.3pp53.5%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won52.5%+1.7pp50.8%

Serve · 3–2

59.6%1st Serve In+0.8pp58.8%

64.0%1st Serve Won+1.9pp62.1%

40.8%2nd Serve Won+4.9pp45.7%

2.5Aces / Match+1.43.9

4.8Double Faults / Match0.8 fewer5.6

Return · 1–0

50.2%Return Pts Won+3.9pp46.3%

Pressure · 2–0

50.3%Break Pts Converted+0.9pp49.4%

58.8%Break Pts Saved+5.3pp53.5%

Points · 1–0

52.5%Total Pts Won+1.7pp50.8%