BrazilWTA Sao PauloFinished

Predictions graded

Anna Blinkova #108Russia2Carol Young Suh Lee #165United States0

Sets 6-1 · 6-3Thu 17 Sept 2026, 15:10 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions0–80%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAnna Blinkova · 57 places

Anna Blinkova

Russia

Reached a career-high ranking of No. 34. No reliable current physical-availability or preferred-surface detail was found in the requested searches.

Current ranking: #108
Peak ranking: #34
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 179 cm

Carol Young Suh Lee

United States

Reached a career-high No. 162 on July 27, 2026 and entered Warsaw at No. 165. She reached the Prague WTA round of 16 in July after qualifying for her tour-level main-draw debut.

Current ranking: #165
Peak ranking: #162 · 2026
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Sep 2026, 15:51 · Europe/Bucharest

Lee's superior recent form and serve efficiency make her a slight favorite, with a 58% win probability and value at odds of 1.85.

The match is likely to be close and exceed 21.5 total games, given both players' tendency for long, competitive matches. Blinkova's return game and experience keep her in contention, but Lee's edge in key moments should prevail.

Context

Lee, 22, is ranked 143 and has built a 25-10 hard-court record in 2026, mostly at lower-level events.
Lee's 66.7% win rate in her last 15 matches edges Blinkova's 53.3%, and her first-serve points won (65.4% vs 61.7%) and second-serve points won (48.5% vs 42.2%) give her a small serving edge. However, Blinkova's return points won (48.2% vs 43.4%) suggests she can pressure Lee's serve, so the match may hinge on who holds more comfortably.
- Lee's last 15 hard-court matches: 10 wins, 5 losses (66.7% win rate).
- Blinkova's last 15 hard-court matches: 8 wins, 7 losses (53.3% win rate).
- Lee's first-serve points won: 65.4%; Blinkova's: 61.7%.
- Blinkova's return points won: 48.2%; Lee's: 43.4%.
Blinkova, 27, reached the Barranquilla WTA 125 final on September 12 after a 2-hour-9-minute semifinal the previous day. Lee, 23, ended her Barranquilla run in the quarterfinal on September 10.
Blinkova has had less recovery time and more accumulated match load before this São Paulo opener. Lee's extra two days of rest may help her start fresher, though Blinkova's deep run also shows she is match-tough.
- Blinkova's September 11 Barranquilla semifinal lasted 2 hours 9 minutes before she played the final the next day.
- Lee's Barranquilla campaign ended in the quarterfinal on September 10.
ConfirmedSources checked 13 Sep 2026, 15:51 · Europe/BucharestKia Open 2026 Drawswww.wtatennis.com · 13 Sep 2026Jacquemot vs. Blinkova — Kia Open 2026 Semifinalwww.wtatennis.com · 13 Sep 2026SP Open 2026 Drawswww.wtatennis.com · 13 Sep 2026
Blinkova, 27, is ranked 95 and has a career win rate of 55.9%.
Her last match was a 6-0 2-6 7-5 loss to Claire Liu, ranked 111, after winning four straight matches in the same tournament. That run included wins over players ranked 114, 147, 449, and 874, so her form is solid but not tested against top-50 opponents. This suggests she can handle Lee's level but may struggle if the match goes to a deciding set.
- Blinkova's last match: lost to Claire Liu (rank 111) 6-0 2-6 7-5 in the quarterfinals.
- Before that, she won four straight matches in the same tournament, including wins over Elsa Jacquemot (114) and Julia Riera (147).
- Her last 5 matches: 4 wins, 1 loss.
Lee has a 71.2% career win rate and has been climbing the rankings.
Her most recent match was a 6-1 7-6(4) loss to Jeanjean, a player ranked 127, which ended a two-match winning streak. Before that, she beat Emiliana Arango (88) and Vendula Valdmannova (165). This mixed recent form suggests she can beat players around Blinkova's ranking but is not immune to early exits.
- Lee's last match: lost to Leolia Jeanjean (rank 127) 6-1 7-6(4).
- Her previous two matches were wins over Emiliana Arango (88) and Vendula Valdmannova (165).
- Her last 5 matches: 3 wins, 2 losses.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Lee's stronger recent form and serve efficiency give her the edge, though Blinkova's return game keeps it competitive.
- Lee's last-15 record is 10-5 (66.7%) vs Blinkova's 8-7 (53.3%)
- Lee's first-serve points won is 65.4% vs Blinkova's 61.7%
- Lee's second-serve points won is 48.5% vs Blinkova's 42.2%
- Lee has a 62% career tiebreak win rate vs Blinkova's 51%
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostCarol Young Suh LeeEstimated chance58%

Games0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have competitive recent matches with high game counts, suggesting a close contest likely to exceed 21.5 games.
- Blinkova's last-15 average match duration is 109.8 minutes, Lee's is 122 minutes
- Blinkova's last-15 games per match average is 21.8, Lee's is 22.9
- Both players have similar total points won percentages (51.1% vs 51.3%)
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent first sets for both players often go beyond 9.5 games, indicating a tight opening set.
- Blinkova's recent first sets average 9.6 games, Lee's average 9.8 games
- Both players have similar first-set competitiveness
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Lee's slight edge in games won percentage suggests she could cover a -1.5 game handicap, but the margin is thin.
- Lee's games won percentage is 53.6% vs Blinkova's 52.6%
- Lee's recent wins have often been by 2+ games margin
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostCarol Young Suh Lee -1.5Estimated chance50%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Lee's high first-set conversion rate suggests she often starts well, but Blinkova's experience keeps this close.
- Lee's first-set win conversion is 93% career vs Blinkova's 86%
- Lee's recent matches show strong starts, winning first set in 4 of last 5 wins
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostCarol Young Suh LeeEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Blinkova's high double fault rate pushes the combined total above the line, making over 6.5 likely.
- Blinkova averages 4.8 double faults per match, Lee averages 2.1
- Combined average double faults per match is 6.9
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined ace averages sit exactly at the line, making over 5.5 a slight lean given Lee's higher ace rate.
- Blinkova averages 2.4 aces per match, Lee averages 3.1
- Combined average aces per match is 5.5
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both players have moderate tiebreak rates, and a close match could produce at least one tiebreak.
- Blinkova's last-15 matches: 4 of 15 had a tiebreak (26.7%)
- Lee's last-15 matches: 5 of 15 had a tiebreak (33.3%)
- Combined tiebreak occurrence rate is approximately 30%
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance50%

Prediction history

Carol Youngsuh Lee has been highly reliable when projected to win

Carol Youngsuh Lee has fulfilled 3 of 4 recent win projections, a 75% success rate. Her average estimated probability in those matches was 65.3%, with an expected 2.6 fulfilled predictions, so she has slightly outperformed expectations. The only miss came against Tiantsoa Rakotomanga Rajaonah, where Lee was projected at 62% but lost.

Recent evidence for Carol Youngsuh Lee4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

20 Jul·WTA Prague

#136Veronika Podrez1-2#182Carol Youngsuh Lee

BetBugsCarol Youngsuh Lee to win·62%

Matched

20 Jul 2026

WTA Prague

#136Veronika Podrez1-2#182Carol Youngsuh Lee

Carol Youngsuh Lee to win

62%probability

Carol Youngsuh Lee won

Matched

19 Jul·WTA Prague

#161Priscilla Hon0-2#182Carol Youngsuh Lee

BetBugsCarol Youngsuh Lee to win·65%

Matched

19 Jul 2026

WTA Prague

#161Priscilla Hon0-2#182Carol Youngsuh Lee

Carol Youngsuh Lee to win

65%probability

Carol Youngsuh Lee won

Matched

18 Jul·WTA Prague

#256Kyoka Okamura0-2#182Carol Youngsuh Lee

BetBugsCarol Youngsuh Lee to win·72%

Matched

18 Jul 2026

WTA Prague

#256Kyoka Okamura0-2#182Carol Youngsuh Lee

Carol Youngsuh Lee to win

72%probability

Carol Youngsuh Lee won

Matched

23 Jun·WTA Wimbledon

#177Tiantsoa Rakotomanga Rajaonah2-1#203Carol Youngsuh Lee

BetBugsCarol Youngsuh Lee to win·62%

Missed

23 Jun 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#177Tiantsoa Rakotomanga Rajaonah2-1#203Carol Youngsuh Lee

Carol Youngsuh Lee to win

62%probability

Tiantsoa Rakotomanga Rajaonah won

Missed

Previous match context available

Anna Blinkova

8W 7L

6-0 2-6 7-5#111Claire Liu 6-1 7-6(5)#114Elsa Jacquemot

6-2 6-2#147Julia Riera

7-5 6-1#449Nadia Podoroska

6-1 6-0#874Valentina Mediorreal Arias

6-4 6-3#23Anna Kalinskaya

7-6(6) 6-0#101Anastasia Zakharova

6-7(5) 6-4 7-5#19Ekaterina Alexandrova

1-6 6-2 6-3#94Mananchaya Sawangkaew

3-6 6-2 6-2#98Eva Lys

6-3 6-4#118Dominika Salkova

6-3 6-3#151Rebecca Sramkova

6-2 7-5#446Heather Watson

7-6(9) 3-6 6-1#30Sara Bejlek

3-6 6-2 6-2#136Aliaksandra Sasnovich

Carol Young Suh Lee

10W 5L

6-1 7-6(4)#127Leolia Jeanjean

7-6(5) 7-5#88Emiliana Arango

6-3 7-6(5)#165Vendula Valdmannova

6-4 3-6 6-0#62Katie Boulter

6-4 6-7(5) 6-4#97Polina Kudermetova

6-4 7-5#184Gabriela Andrea Knutson

6-2 6-2#165Vendula Valdmannova

3-6 7-6(4) 6-1#316Weronika Falkowska

2-6 6-3 6-1#223Aliona Falei

6-4 6-4#114Elsa Jacquemot

7-5 6-4#26Marie Bouzkova

6-1 5-7 6-2#132Veronika Podrez

7-5 6-3#156Priscilla Hon

7-5 6-1#283Kyoka Okamura

6-3 6-3#81Hanne Vandewinkel

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

ABAnna BlinkovaBlinkova

Last 15

1–6

9 core stats · 2 even

Carol Young Suh LeeLeeCL

Carol Young Suh Lee carries the stronger recent form — Anna Blinkova's route runs through return.

Serve · 0–5

1st Serve In59.8%+6.2pp66.0%

1st Serve Won61.7%+3.7pp65.4%

2nd Serve Won42.2%+6.3pp48.5%

Aces / Match2.4+0.73.1

Double Faults / Match4.82.7 fewer2.1

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won48.2%+4.8pp43.4%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted43.6%+2.9pp46.5%

Break Pts Saved56.3%—56.9%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won51.1%—51.3%

Serve · 0–5

59.8%1st Serve In+6.2pp66.0%

61.7%1st Serve Won+3.7pp65.4%

42.2%2nd Serve Won+6.3pp48.5%

2.4Aces / Match+0.73.1

4.8Double Faults / Match2.7 fewer2.1

Return · 1–0

48.2%Return Pts Won+4.8pp43.4%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

43.6%Break Pts Converted+2.9pp46.5%

56.3%Break Pts Saved—56.9%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

51.1%Total Pts Won—51.3%