ChinaGuangzhou - ChinaFinished

Predictions graded

Fajing Sun #326China2Alexis Galarneau #185Canada1

Sets 7-5 · 3-6 · 7-5Tue 15 Sept 2026, 07:30 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions2–433%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAlexis Galarneau · 141 places

Fajing Sun

China

Chinese right-hander whose official ITF profile lists hard courts as his preferred surface. He reached a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 197 in May 2026.

Current ranking: #326
Peak ranking: #197 · 2026
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Alexis Galarneau

Canada

Canadian, age 27, right-handed and 180 cm. ITF lists hard as his preferred surface; his career-high singles ranking was No. 153 in May 2024.

Current ranking: #185
Peak ranking: #153 · 2024
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Sep 2026, 04:31 · Europe/Bucharest

Galarneau is the clear favorite based on superior ranking, recent form, and return game.

He is likely to win the match and first set, with a moderate chance of a straight-set victory. The total games and tiebreak markets are close, with slight lean to over 21.5 games and a tiebreak occurring.

Context

Galarneau, ranked 183, has a 54.5% win rate on hard courts in his last 11 matches, with a 50.8% games won percentage.
Sun, ranked 323, has a 35.7% win rate on hard courts in his last 14 matches and a 45.7% games won percentage. Galarneau's better recent results and higher ranking suggest he is more likely to control this match, though Sun's home advantage in China could narrow the gap.
- Galarneau's last 15 overall record: 9-6 (60%), with a 54.5% win rate on hard courts (6-5).
- Sun's last 15 overall record: 5-10 (33.3%), with a 35.7% win rate on hard courts (5-9).
- Galarneau's games won percentage on hard courts is 50.8%, compared to Sun's 45.7%.
Galarneau's return points won percentage on hard courts is 37.9% over his last 11 matches.
Sun's return points won percentage on hard courts is 35.8% over his last 14 matches. Galarneau's slightly better return game could create more break opportunities, especially against Sun's 61.5% first-serve percentage.
- Galarneau's return points won on hard courts: 37.9% (283/747).
- Sun's return points won on hard courts: 35.8% (353/987).
- Sun's first-serve percentage on hard courts: 61.5%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Alexis Galarneau

1.30fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 76.9%

0.0ppshort

Galarneau's superior recent form, ranking, and return game give him a clear edge on hard court.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Galarneau's superior recent form, ranking, and return game give him a clear edge on hard court.
- Galarneau last 15 overall record 9-6 (60%) vs Sun 5-10 (33.3%)
- Galarneau ranking 183 vs Sun 323
- Galarneau hard-court last 15 record 6-5 (54.5%) vs Sun 5-9 (35.7%)
- Galarneau return points won 37.7% vs Sun 35.3%
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostAlexis GalarneauEstimated chance68%

Games2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Competitive baseline stats suggest a match that could extend beyond 21.5 games.
- Sun last 15 average 21.5 games per match (146 games / 15 matches)
- Galarneau last 15 average 23.4 games per match (180 games / 15 matches)
- Both players have similar total points won percentages (48% vs 50.5%)
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent set scores indicate a competitive first set with a chance of extra games.
- Sun's recent hard-court matches often feature close sets (e.g., 7-5, 7-6)
- Galarneau's last 15 includes multiple tiebreaks and 7-5 sets
- Both players have first serve points won around 66-69%
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Galarneau's stronger overall set-winning rate and solid first-serve performance make him likely to take the opener.
- Galarneau first set win conversion 85% career vs Sun 87%
- Galarneau last 15 sets won 57.1% vs Sun 30.3%
- Galarneau hard-court first serve points won 68.7% vs Sun 66.2%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostAlexis GalarneauEstimated chance62%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Galarneau's higher double fault rate pushes the combined total to the line.
- Sun averages 1.6 double faults per match in last 15
- Galarneau averages 2.9 double faults per match in last 15
- Combined average 4.5 double faults per match
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance50%

Prediction history

Alexis Galarneau has been highly reliable when projected to win

Alexis Galarneau has fulfilled 6 of 6 win predictions, with an average estimated probability of 66.7% and an expected fulfilment of 4. The current prediction of 68% sits within the historical range of 58% to 78%, and all six matches resulted in wins for Galarneau.

Recent evidence for Alexis Galarneau6 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

15 Jul·Granby - Canada

#326Tyler Zink1-2#158Alexis Galarneau

BetBugsAlexis Galarneau to win·72%

Matched

15 Jul 2026

Granby - Canada

#326Tyler Zink1-2#158Alexis Galarneau

Alexis Galarneau to win

72%probability

Alexis Galarneau won

Matched

14 Jul·Granby - Canada

#259Kaichi Uchida0-2#158Alexis Galarneau

BetBugsAlexis Galarneau to win·78%

Matched

14 Jul 2026

Granby - Canada

#259Kaichi Uchida0-2#158Alexis Galarneau

Alexis Galarneau to win

78%probability

Alexis Galarneau won

Matched

10 Jul·Newport - USA

#179Alexis Galarneau2-0#367Daniel Milavsky

BetBugsAlexis Galarneau to win·62%

Matched

10 Jul 2026

Newport - USA

#179Alexis Galarneau2-0#367Daniel Milavsky

Alexis Galarneau to win

62%probability

Alexis Galarneau won

Matched

8 Jul·Newport - USA

#179Alexis Galarneau2-1#197Juan Pablo Ficovich

BetBugsAlexis Galarneau to win·72%

Matched

8 Jul 2026

Newport - USA

#179Alexis Galarneau2-1#197Juan Pablo Ficovich

Alexis Galarneau to win

72%probability

Alexis Galarneau won

Matched

22 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#127Facundo Diaz Acosta0-2#188Alexis Galarneau

BetBugsAlexis Galarneau to win·58%

Matched

22 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#127Facundo Diaz Acosta0-2#188Alexis Galarneau

Alexis Galarneau to win

58%probability

Alexis Galarneau won

Matched

Previous match context available

Fajing Sun

5W 10L

7-5 6-4#454Jie Cui

6-3 6-3#221Chun Hsin Tseng

6-0 7-5#899Hanyi Liu

6-7(2) 6-4 7-6(2)#370Tung-Lin Wu

7-5 7-5#255Hayato Matsuoka

4-6 7-6(4) 6-3#421Semen Pankin

6-2 3-6 6-2—Zangar Nurlanuly

6-3 7-6(4)#275Ilia Simakin

6-4 6-1#421Semen Pankin

6-4 6-4#340Mees Rottgering

6-2 6-3#87Arthur Gea

6-4 6-3#427Ozan Baris

6-1 6-2#216Braden Shick

6-3 7-6(1)#184Andre Ilagan

6-2 6-2#312Jay Dylan Hara Friend

Alexis Galarneau

9W 6L

3-6 6-1 6-1#250Pavel Kotov

6-3 6-4#817Linang Xiao

7-6(5) 6-4#421Semen Pankin

7-6(3) 6-2#134Dalibor Svrcina

7-6(4) 6-3#193Keegan Smith

6-2 6-3#101Jacob Fearnley

6-4 6-4#102Dino Prizmic

6-4 6-4#69Vit Kopriva

7-6(2) 7-6(2)#96Aleksandar Vukic

6-1 5-7 7-6(2)#330Tyler Zink

6-2 6-1#277Kaichi Uchida

6-7(2) 6-3 6-4#101Jacob Fearnley

6-3 6-2#322Daniel Milavsky

6-3 3-6 7-6(5)#67Adrian Mannarino

4-6 6-4 7-6(4)#379Juan Pablo Ficovich

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

FSFajing SunSun

Last 15

3–6

9 core stats · 0 even

Alexis GalarneauGalarneauAG

Alexis Galarneau carries the stronger recent form — Fajing Sun's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In61.1%+5.4pp55.7%

1st Serve Won66.6%+3.0pp69.6%

2nd Serve Won51.0%+4.7pp55.7%

Aces / Match3.1+0.33.4

Double Faults / Match1.61.3 fewer2.9

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won35.3%+2.4pp37.7%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted35.4%+7.5pp42.9%

Break Pts Saved58.9%+1.6pp57.3%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won48.0%+2.5pp50.5%

Serve · 2–3

61.1%1st Serve In+5.4pp55.7%

66.6%1st Serve Won+3.0pp69.6%

51.0%2nd Serve Won+4.7pp55.7%

3.1Aces / Match+0.33.4

1.6Double Faults / Match1.3 fewer2.9

Return · 0–1

35.3%Return Pts Won+2.4pp37.7%

Pressure · 1–1

35.4%Break Pts Converted+7.5pp42.9%

58.9%Break Pts Saved+1.6pp57.3%

Points · 0–1

48.0%Total Pts Won+2.5pp50.5%