ChinaGuangzhou - ChinaFinished

Predictions graded

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong #5442Sergey Fomin #305Uzbekistan0

Sets 6-3 · 6-1Wed 16 Sept 2026, 07:40 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions3–443%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageSergey Fomin · 239 places

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

Born 6 August 2004. Public career records show his match volume has been overwhelmingly on hard courts; no current injury, withdrawal, retirement, or medical-timeout report surfaced in the requested searches.

Current ranking: #544
Peak ranking: #537 · 2026
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Sergey Fomin

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistani right-hander, born 1 February 2001. ATP/ITF profile data lists a singles career high of No. 290 in May 2026 and clay as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #305
Peak ranking: #290 · 2026
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 14 Sep 2026, 22:40 · Europe/Bucharest

Leong's superior recent form and hard-court consistency make him the likely winner, with a 62% model probability versus the 45.5% implied by odds of 2.20.

Fomin's higher ranking and prior H2H win add risk, but Leong's fast starts and return game should prevail. Consider Leong to win and over 21.5 total games.

Context

Leong, ranked 464, has been playing almost exclusively on hard courts and has a 73.3% win rate in his last 15 matches. Fomin, ranked 295, has a 33.3% win rate in his last 15 matches and has been less consistent on hard courts.
Leong's recent hard-court results are much stronger than Fomin's, with Leong winning 11 of 15 matches and Fomin losing 10 of 15. However, Fomin's last 7 hard-court matches show a 42.9% win rate, which is better than his overall recent form but still below Leong's level. This suggests Leong enters with better current form, but Fomin's ranking and past success on hard courts keep the matchup competitive.
- Leong's last 15 overall record: 11-4 (73.3% win rate).
- Fomin's last 15 overall record: 5-10 (33.3% win rate).
- Fomin's last 7 hard-court matches: 3-4 (42.9% win rate).
Fomin and Leong have met once before, on hard court in October 2025. Fomin lost the first set 0-6 but came back to win the next two sets.
That match shows Fomin can adjust after a poor start, but it was nearly a year ago and both players' form has changed since. Leong's current hard-court form is stronger, so the head-to-head result may not repeat, but it gives Fomin a psychological edge in a tight match.
- H2H: Fomin defeated Leong 0-6 6-2 7-6(3) on hard court on 2025-10-31.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Leong's superior recent form and hard-court consistency outweigh Fomin's higher ranking and one prior H2H win.
- Last 15 overall record: 11-4 (73.3%) vs Fomin 5-10 (33.3%)
- Last 15 hard-court record: Leong 11-4, Fomin 3-4
- Leong last 5: 4-1, Fomin last 5: 1-4
- Leong return points won 42.2% vs Fomin 38.3%
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMitsuki Wei Kang LeongEstimated chance62%

Games0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have competitive recent matches and the prior H2H went three sets, suggesting a longer contest.
- Leong last 15 average games per match: 20.4
- Fomin last 15 average games per match: 22.5
- H2H match had 27 games
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Leong's strong first-set conversion and recent fast starts give him the edge in the opening set.
- Leong first-set win conversion career 88%, Fomin 85%
- Leong last 15 first serve points won 71.5% vs Fomin 68.9%
- Leong last 5 matches: won first set in 4 of 5
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonMitsuki Wei Kang LeongEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Fomin's high double fault rate drives the combined total over the line.
- Leong last 15 double faults per match: 2.5
- Fomin last 15 double faults per match: 4.8
- Combined average: 7.3 double faults per match
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Fomin's higher ace rate and Leong's moderate ace count push the combined total above the line.
- Leong last 15 aces per match: 4.3
- Fomin last 15 aces per match: 6.0
- Combined average: 10.3 aces per match
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance50%

Prediction history

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong has been highly reliable when projected to win

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong has fulfilled 4 of 5 recent win projections. The average estimated probability was 58.6%, with an expected 2.9 fulfilled predictions, so the actual 4 wins exceeded expectation. The only miss came as an away underdog at 58% probability, while all four wins occurred at probabilities between 55% and 62%.

Recent evidence for Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

20 Jul·Segovia - Spain

#498Dominik Palan2-1#545Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

BetBugsMitsuki Wei Kang Leong to win·58%

Missed

20 Jul 2026

Segovia - Spain

#498Dominik Palan2-1#545Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong to win

58%probability

Dominik Palan won

Missed

19 Jul·Segovia - Spain

#605Alberto Barroso Campos0-2#545Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

BetBugsMitsuki Wei Kang Leong to win·58%

Matched

19 Jul 2026

Segovia - Spain

#605Alberto Barroso Campos0-2#545Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong to win

58%probability

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong won

Matched

13 Jul·Pozoblanco - Spain

—Bernardo Munk Mesa1-2#545Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

BetBugsMitsuki Wei Kang Leong to win·62%

Matched

13 Jul 2026

Pozoblanco - Spain

—Bernardo Munk Mesa1-2#545Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong to win

62%probability

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong won

Matched

13 Jul·Pozoblanco - Spain

#697Arda Azkara0-2#547Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

BetBugsMitsuki Wei Kang Leong to win·60%

Matched

13 Jul 2026

Pozoblanco - Spain

#697Arda Azkara0-2#547Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong to win

60%probability

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong won

Matched

20 May·Bengaluru - India

#571Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong2-0#692Yusuke Takahashi

BetBugsMitsuki Wei Kang Leong to win·55%

Matched

20 May 2026

Bengaluru - India

#571Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong2-0#692Yusuke Takahashi

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong to win

55%probability

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong won

Matched

Head-to-Head

0-1 (1 meetings)

L0-6 6-2 7-6(3)Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong#464vSergey Fomin#295Oct 31, 2025

1 total meetings

Previous match context available

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

11W 4L

2-6 6-1 4-0 ret.#846Hanyi Liu 6-0 6-1—Ye Hongyu

6-2 6-1#396Omar Jasika

6-7(4) 6-4 ret.—Thijmen Loof

1-6 7-6(4) 6-3—Takeru Yuzuki

6-3 6-7(3) 6-3#177Ilia Simakin

6-7(4) 6-3 4-0 ret.#464James Kent Trotter

6-3 6-2#483Koki Matsuda

7-6(3) 6-3#288Petr Bar Biryukov

6-1 6-4#506Dominik Palan

6-0 ret.—Weiyi Kong

6-4 6-4#609Erik Arutiunian

6-0 6-1—Yerassyl Yerdilda

6-7(6) 6-4 7-5#506Dominik Palan

6-2 7-5#691Alberto Barroso Campos

Sergey Fomin

5W 10L

7-6(1) 7-5#248Yi Zhou

7-5 6-0#431Khumoun Sultanov

3-6 7-6(5) 6-4—Xirui Han

4-6 6-1 7-5#419Aziz Dougaz

6-2 6-1#398Masamichi Imamura

6-1 6-4#387Kasidit Samrej

7-5 4-1 ret.#720Maxim Zhukov

1-6 6-1 6-3#507Giuseppe La Vela

6-2 3-6 7-6(8)#305Yanki Erel

6-3 4-6 6-4#381Manas Manoj Dhamne

3-6 6-4 6-1#407Olle Wallin

6-3 7-6(5)#900Mircea-Alexandru Jecan

7-6(6) 6-1#161Max Alcala Gurri

6-4 6-2#236Sumit Nagal

6-2 6-3#709Dragos Nicolae Cazacu

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MLMitsuki Wei Kang LeongLeong

Last 15

8–1

9 core stats · 0 even

Sergey FominFominSF

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong carries the stronger recent form — Sergey Fomin's route runs through serve.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In63.3%+5.1pp58.2%

1st Serve Won71.5%+2.6pp68.9%

2nd Serve Won50.8%+1.4pp49.4%

Aces / Match4.3+1.76.0

Double Faults / Match2.52.3 fewer4.8

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won42.2%+3.9pp38.3%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted52.7%+17.2pp35.5%

Break Pts Saved58.4%+2.3pp56.1%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won53.2%+3.5pp49.7%

Serve · 4–1

63.3%1st Serve In+5.1pp58.2%

71.5%1st Serve Won+2.6pp68.9%

50.8%2nd Serve Won+1.4pp49.4%

4.3Aces / Match+1.76.0

2.5Double Faults / Match2.3 fewer4.8

Return · 1–0

42.2%Return Pts Won+3.9pp38.3%

Pressure · 2–0

52.7%Break Pts Converted+17.2pp35.5%

58.4%Break Pts Saved+2.3pp56.1%

Points · 1–0

53.2%Total Pts Won+3.5pp49.7%