ChinaGuangzhou - ChinaRET

Predictions graded

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong #5442Hanyi Liu #899China1

Sets 2-6 · 6-1 · 4-0Mon 14 Sept 2026, 08:10 Predictions gradedQ3Hard

Predictions3–350%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMitsuki Wei Kang Leong · 355 places

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

Born 6 August 2004. Public career records show his match volume has been overwhelmingly on hard courts; no current injury, withdrawal, retirement, or medical-timeout report surfaced in the requested searches.

Current ranking: #544
Peak ranking: #537 · 2026
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Hanyi Liu

China

Liu, 25, is the right-hander in this matchup. His recorded career-high ranking is No. 719, reached in April 2024.

Current ranking: #899
Peak ranking: #719 · 2024
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Sep 2026, 15:44 · Europe/Bucharest

Leong's ranking and career hard-court wins give him a slight edge, but Liu's recent hard-court form is comparable, making the match closer than odds suggest.

Expect a competitive match with strong serving, favoring over 21.5 total games and under 4.5 double faults.

Context

Leong, ranked 551, is a right-hander who has played almost exclusively on hard courts this season. Liu, ranked 899, is a right-hander with a two-handed backhand and has also focused on hard courts.
Leong's 10-5 record in his last 15 matches includes losses to players ranked 275, 281, and 408, while Liu's 10-5 record includes wins over players ranked 277 and 323. Liu's recent wins have been more one-sided, with several 6-0 or 6-1 sets, suggesting he may be in sharper form against lower-ranked opposition. However, Leong's tougher schedule could mean his level is more battle-tested.
- Leong's last 15 matches: 10 wins, 5 losses, with losses to opponents ranked 275, 281, and 408.
- Liu's last 15 matches: 10 wins, 5 losses, with wins over opponents ranked 277 and 323.
- Liu has recorded multiple 6-0 or 6-1 set wins in his recent victories, indicating dominant performances.
Liu's return points won percentage of 45.4% is notably higher than Leong's 41.3% over the same 15-match window.
If Liu can maintain his return level, he may create more break opportunities against Leong's serve. Leong's first-serve points won is slightly higher at 71.3% versus Liu's 69.6%, but Liu's superior return could neutralize that advantage. This matchup may hinge on who can hold serve more consistently.
- Liu's return points won: 45.4% (406/895) in last 15 matches.
- Leong's return points won: 41.3% (407/986) in last 15 matches.
- Leong's first-serve points won: 71.3%; Liu's first-serve points won: 69.6%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

1.25fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Leong's superior ranking and career hard-court volume give a slight edge, but Liu's recent hard-court form is comparable.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Leong's superior ranking and career hard-court volume give a slight edge, but Liu's recent hard-court form is comparable.
- Last 15 overall record: 10-5 (66.7%) vs Hanyi Liu 10-5 (66.7%)
- Last 15 hard-court games won: 55.5% vs 58.9%
- Career hard-court wins: 134 vs 104
- Ranking: 551 vs 899
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMitsuki Wei Kang LeongEstimated chance58%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Competitive hard-court match with similar serve stats likely to produce a moderately high game count.
- Leong last 15 average games per match: 20.7
- Liu last 15 average games per match: 18.3
- Both players have similar serve hold rates around 70%
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Strong serving and break point saving on both sides should keep the first set close.
- Leong last 15 first-serve points won: 71.3%
- Liu last 15 first-serve points won: 69.6%
- Both players have break point save rates above 58%
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Leong's strong first-set conversion and serve metrics suggest a slight edge in the opening set.
- Leong first-set win conversion career: 88%
- Liu first-set win conversion career: 87%
- Leong last 15 first-serve points won: 71.3%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostMitsuki Wei Kang LeongEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have relatively low double fault rates, making the under likely.
- Leong last 15 double faults per match: 2.5
- Liu last 15 double faults per match: 1.7
- Combined average double faults per match: 4.2
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 4.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both players contribute aces, and the combined average slightly exceeds the line.
- Leong last 15 aces per match: 3.9
- Liu last 15 aces per match: 2.8
- Combined average aces per match: 6.7
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance50%

Previous match context available

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

10W 5L

6-0 6-1—Ye Hongyu

6-2 6-1#408Omar Jasika

6-7(4) 6-4 ret.—Thijmen Loof

1-6 7-6(4) 6-3—Takeru Yuzuki

6-3 6-7(3) 6-3#275Ilia Simakin

6-7(4) 6-3 4-0 ret.#464James Kent Trotter

6-3 6-2#483Koki Matsuda

7-6(3) 6-3#288Petr Bar Biryukov

6-1 6-4#506Dominik Palan

6-0 ret.—Weiyi Kong

6-4 6-4#609Erik Arutiunian

6-0 6-1—Yerassyl Yerdilda

6-7(6) 6-4 7-5#506Dominik Palan

6-2 7-5#635Alberto Barroso Campos

6-4 7-6(5)#281Dan Added

Hanyi Liu

10W 5L

6-3 6-3#669Yaroslav Demin

6-2 6-4#444Denis Yevseyev

6-0 6-1#1909Ren Nakamura

6-0 7-5#323Fajing Sun

3-6 6-3 6-2#277Kaichi Uchida

6-3 6-2#646Chase Ferguson

6-2 6-1—Xing Dao Chen

4-6 6-3 7-5#854Hoyoung Roh

6-2 6-1—Jia Hu

6-1 6-1—Kosuke Shibano

6-2 6-4#1581Zhao Zhao

6-4 6-3#663Yuta Kawahashi

4-6 6-0 3-0 ret.#539Kokoro Isomura

6-1 6-1—Artem Alekseychuk

7-5 6-2#646Chase Ferguson

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MLMitsuki Wei Kang LeongLeong

Last 15

3–5

9 core stats · 1 even

Hanyi LiuLiuHL

Hanyi Liu carries the stronger recent form — Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In64.6%+1.8pp66.4%

1st Serve Won71.3%+1.7pp69.6%

2nd Serve Won50.4%+1.4pp49.0%

Aces / Match3.9+1.12.8

Double Faults / Match2.50.8 fewer1.7

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won41.3%+4.1pp45.4%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted50.5%—50.5%

Break Pts Saved58.4%+6.1pp64.5%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won52.6%+1.2pp53.8%

Serve · 3–2

64.6%1st Serve In+1.8pp66.4%

71.3%1st Serve Won+1.7pp69.6%

50.4%2nd Serve Won+1.4pp49.0%

3.9Aces / Match+1.12.8

2.5Double Faults / Match0.8 fewer1.7

Return · 0–1

41.3%Return Pts Won+4.1pp45.4%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

50.5%Break Pts Converted—50.5%

58.4%Break Pts Saved+6.1pp64.5%

Points · 0–1

52.6%Total Pts Won+1.2pp53.8%