ChinaGuangzhou - ChinaFinished

Predictions graded

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong #5442Ye Hongyu #2280China0

Sets 6-0 · 6-1Sun 13 Sept 2026, 08:10 Predictions gradedQ1Hard

Predictions3–350%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMitsuki Wei Kang Leong · 1736 places

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

Born 6 August 2004. Public career records show his match volume has been overwhelmingly on hard courts; no current injury, withdrawal, retirement, or medical-timeout report surfaced in the requested searches.

Current ranking: #544
Peak ranking: #537 · 2026
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Ye Hongyu

China

Born 5 December 2004. Right-handed and hard-court listed; his ATP career-high ranking was No. 1548 in April 2024.

Current ranking: #2280
Peak ranking: #1548 · 2024
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Sep 2026, 22:26 · Europe/Bucharest

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong is the clear favorite based on superior form and hard-court record, but his odds of 1.02 offer no value.

The match is likely to feature competitive sets, with a lean toward over 21.5 total games, but all betting edges are minimal.

Context

Leong, ranked 551, has been competing regularly on hard courts and has a 66.7% win rate in his last 15 matches.
Ye has won only 40% of his last 15 matches, and his recent results include losses to lower-ranked opponents. Leong's stronger recent record, including wins over players ranked inside the top 300, indicates he is better prepared for this surface and level.
- Leong's last 15 hard-court matches: 10 wins, 5 losses (66.7% win rate).
- Ye's last 15 hard-court matches: 6 wins, 9 losses (40% win rate).
- Leong defeated No. 288 Petr Bar Biryukov and No. 275 Ilia Simakin in recent weeks.
Ye, unranked, has limited recent data with only three matches tracked for serve and return metrics.
In those three matches, Ye won only 33% of return points and saved just 35.3% of break points, which could allow Leong to control rallies and create break opportunities. However, the small sample size means this trend is not fully reliable.
- Ye's first-serve percentage in last 3 tracked matches: 56.6%.
- Ye's return points won in last 3 tracked matches: 33%.
- Ye's break points saved in last 3 tracked matches: 35.3%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

1.02fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 98%

0.0ppshort

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong's stronger recent form and hard-court record give him a clear edge in this Bo3 match.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.02
The read
Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong's stronger recent form and hard-court record give him a clear edge in this Bo3 match.
- Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong has a 10-5 record in last 15 matches (66.7%) vs Ye Hongyu's 6-9 (40%).
- Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong has won 54% of games in last 15 matches vs Ye Hongyu's 50.7%.
- Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong has a 32-19 hard court record in 2026 vs Ye Hongyu's 11-14.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMitsuki Wei Kang LeongEstimated chance68%

Games0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined average games per match for both players is above 21.5, supporting an over on total games.
- Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong's last 15 matches average 21.6 games per match (324 games / 15 matches).
- Ye Hongyu's last 15 matches average 22.6 games per match (339 games / 15 matches).
- Both players have similar games-won percentages (54% vs 50.7%), suggesting competitive sets.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The first sets in both players' recent matches often exceed 9.5 games, making the over a reasonable pick.
- Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong's recent first sets include 6-2, 6-7, 1-6, 6-3, 6-7, 6-3, 7-6, 6-1, 6-0, 6-4, 6-0, 6-7, 6-2, 6-4, 3-6.
- Ye Hongyu's recent first sets include 3-6, 4-6, 6-7, 5-7, 6-2, 5-7, 6-3, 3-6, 7-6, 2-6, 6-0, 1-6, 7-5, 3-6, 5-7.
- Both players have a mix of close and lopsided first sets, but the average first-set games is around 9.5.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong's superior set-winning percentage and serve consistency make him the likely first-set winner.
- Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong has won 58.8% of sets in last 15 matches vs Ye Hongyu's 45.5%.
- Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong's first-set win conversion is 88% career, Ye Hongyu's is 91%.
- Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong has a 65.2% first-serve in rate in last 15 matches vs Ye Hongyu's 56.6% (3 matches tracked).
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonMitsuki Wei Kang LeongEstimated chance64%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined ace averages suggest a total above 6.5 aces is plausible.
- Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong averages 3.9 aces per match in last 15 matches.
- Ye Hongyu averages 3.0 aces per match in last 3 matches tracked (small sample).
- Combined average aces per match is approximately 6.9.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance50%

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

10W 5L

6-2 6-1#408Omar Jasika

6-7(4) 6-4 ret.—Thijmen Loof

1-6 7-6(4) 6-3—Takeru Yuzuki

6-3 6-7(3) 6-3#275Ilia Simakin

6-7(4) 6-3 4-0 ret.#464James Kent Trotter

6-3 6-2#483Koki Matsuda

7-6(3) 6-3#288Petr Bar Biryukov

6-1 6-4#506Dominik Palan

6-0 ret.—Weiyi Kong

6-4 6-4#609Erik Arutiunian

6-0 6-1—Yerassyl Yerdilda

6-7(6) 6-4 7-5#506Dominik Palan

6-2 7-5#635Alberto Barroso Campos

6-4 7-6(5)#281Dan Added

3-6 6-4 6-2—Bernardo Munk Mesa

Ye Hongyu

6W 9L

6-3 6-4—Adrian Arcon

4-6 6-3 10-8—Hongjin Qi

7-6(4) 6-4—Xin Zhou

7-5 6-3—Chun-Chien Hou

6-2 6-1—Zhiheng Xia

7-5 ret.—Yuquan Jin

6-3 6-0—Haoran Hu

6-3 6-1—David Qariaqus

7-6(2) 6-1—Shaoyun Liu

2-6 7-5 10-6—Yile Li

6-0 6-1—Peidong Liu

6-1 5-7 7-5—Thomas Nicholas Gadecki

7-5 6-4—Matvey Greschner

6-3 6-4—Artem Alekseychuk

7-5 4-6 10-8—Sicheng Li

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MLMitsuki Wei Kang LeongLeong

Last 15

8–0

9 core stats · 1 even

Ye HongyuHongyuYH

Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong carries the stronger recent form — Ye Hongyu's route runs through 2nd serve won.

Serve · 4–0 · 1 even

1st Serve In15/15 · 3/1565.2%+8.6pp56.6%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 3/1569.8%+5.8pp64.0%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 3/1550.4%—50.6%

Aces / Match15/15 · 3/153.9+0.93.0

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 3/152.61.7 fewer4.3

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won15/15 · 3/1540.4%+7.4pp33.0%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 3/1550.0%+11.5pp38.5%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 3/1557.1%+21.8pp35.3%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won15/15 · 3/1551.8%+7.0pp44.8%

Serve · 4–0 · 1 even

65.2%1st Serve In15/15 · 3/15+8.6pp56.6%

69.8%1st Serve Won15/15 · 3/15+5.8pp64.0%

50.4%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 3/15—50.6%

3.9Aces / Match15/15 · 3/15+0.93.0

2.6Double Faults / Match15/15 · 3/151.7 fewer4.3

Return · 1–0

40.4%Return Pts Won15/15 · 3/15+7.4pp33.0%

Pressure · 2–0

50.0%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 3/15+11.5pp38.5%

57.1%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 3/15+21.8pp35.3%

Points · 1–0

51.8%Total Pts Won15/15 · 3/15+7.0pp44.8%