Alberto Barroso Campos #597Spain00 – 2Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong #6302

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.73

The read

Leong's slightly superior hard-court serve metrics and break-point saving ability, combined with Barroso Campos' recent struggles against higher-ranked opponents, give Leong a moderate edge in this qualifying match.

• Leong has a 4-4 record on hard courts in the last 15 matches, with a 52.9% games-won rate on hard, while Barroso Campos is 7-5 on hard but with a 51.1% games-won rate.
• Leong's first-serve points won on hard is 70.0% vs. Barroso Campos' 68.6%, and Leong's second-serve points won is 47.7% vs. 48.9%, showing a slight edge in serve quality.
• Leong's break-point save rate on hard is 62.3% compared to Barroso Campos' 58.6%, indicating better clutch serving under pressure.
• Barroso Campos' last 5 matches include losses to Giunta (rank 429) and Chidekh (207), while Leong's recent wins include a 6-3, 6-2 victory over Azkara (811) and a three-set win over Munk Mesa.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91

The read

The competitive nature of the matchup and solid break-point saving suggest the second set will also be closely contested, likely exceeding 9.5 games.

• Barroso Campos' second sets average 9.3 games, with 9 of 15 over 9.5.
• Leong's second sets average 9.8 games, with 10 of 15 over 9.5.
• Both players have break-point save rates above 55% on hard, indicating resilience in tight sets.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Leong's strong serving on hard courts and Barroso Campos' recent first-set struggles suggest Leong has a slight advantage to take the opening set.

• Leong has won the first set in 6 of his last 15 matches overall, while Barroso Campos has won the first set in 8 of his last 15.
• On hard courts, Leong's first-serve points won is 70.0%, which could help him start strongly.
• Barroso Campos' first-set win conversion rate is 88% career, but his recent form shows vulnerability early, losing the first set in 3 of his last 5 matches.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Leong's high ace rate on hard courts, combined with Barroso Campos' moderate ace count, makes it likely the total aces will exceed 7.5.

• Leong averages 5.1 aces per match on hard courts in the last 15, while Barroso Campos averages 2.7.
• Combined, their recent hard-court ace averages total 7.8 per match.
• Leong has hit 6 or more aces in 3 of his last 5 hard-court matches.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have relatively high double fault rates on hard courts, making it probable the total will exceed 6.5.

• Barroso Campos averages 4.0 double faults per match on hard in the last 15, while Leong averages 3.1.
• Combined, their recent hard-court double fault averages total 7.1 per match.
• Barroso Campos has committed 4 or more double faults in 7 of his last 12 hard-court matches.