Matias Soto #26211 – 2Vitaliy Sachko #188Ukraine2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.05

The read

Sachko's superior return game and break point conversion on clay, combined with his higher ranking, give him a slight edge in this Bo3 quarterfinal.

• Sachko has a 58.3% win rate on clay in his last 12 clay matches (7-5), while Soto is 60% overall in his last 15 (9-6).
• Sachko's return points won on clay is 42.0% vs Soto's 37.2% overall, giving Sachko a break-point edge.
• Sachko's break point conversion on clay is 45.1% vs Soto's 38.1% overall.
• Sachko's ranking is 188 vs Soto's 261, indicating a higher baseline level.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.08

The read

Both players' recent match averages and competitive game percentages suggest a match likely to exceed 21.5 total games.

• Soto's last 15 matches average 21.3 games per match (320 games / 15 matches).
• Sachko's last 15 matches average 22.3 games per match (335 games / 15 matches).
• Both players have similar games won percentages: Soto 51.2%, Sachko 52.2%.
• Sachko's average match duration is 110.9 minutes vs Soto's 96.3 minutes, indicating longer matches.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Sachko's slightly better return game and recent clay form give him a marginal edge to take the opening set.

• Sachko has won 7 of his last 12 clay matches, while Soto has won 9 of his last 15 overall.
• Sachko's first serve points won on clay is 66.3% vs Soto's 74.3% overall, but Sachko's return points won is higher.
• Sachko's first set win conversion career is 87% vs Soto's 89%, both strong.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

The combined double fault averages of both players on clay are below the 5.5 line, supporting the under.

• Soto averages 3.0 double faults per match in his last 15 matches.
• Sachko averages 1.8 double faults per match on clay in his last 12 clay matches.
• Combined average double faults per match is approximately 4.8 on clay.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

The combined ace averages of both players on clay slightly exceed the 8.5 line, making the over a reasonable pick.

• Soto averages 5.0 aces per match in his last 15 matches.
• Sachko averages 5.0 aces per match in his last 15 matches overall, but only 3.9 on clay in his last 12 clay matches.
• Combined average aces per match is approximately 8.9 on clay (5.0 + 3.9).