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Predictions graded

Luca Castelnuovo #455Switzerland0Ilya Ivashka #402Belarus2

Sets 3-6 · 4-6Sat 12 Sept 2026, 09:00 Predictions gradedSemi-FinalHard

Predictions3–538%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageIlya Ivashka · 53 places

Luca Castelnuovo

Switzerland

Castelnuovo, 29, is the left-hander in this matchup and lists hard as his preferred surface. His best singles ranking is No. 342, reached in May 2026.

Current ranking: #455
Peak ranking: #342 · 2026
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Left handed
Height: 185 cm

Ilya Ivashka

Belarus

Ivashka reached career-high No. 40 in June 2022 and won the 2021 Winston-Salem ATP title. ATP lists hard as his favorite surface.

Current ranking: #402
Peak ranking: #40 · 2022
Current age: 32
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 11 Sep 2026, 15:20 · Europe/Bucharest

Ilya Ivashka is favored over Luca Castelnuovo based on superior recent form, return points won, and second-serve performance.

Ivashka's moneyline odds offer little value, but Castelnuovo +3.5 games and over 21.5 total games are reasonable low-confidence plays. Expect a competitive match with Ivashka likely prevailing in straight sets or a tight three-setter.

Context

Ivashka, 32, is a right-hander ranked 393 and has a career win rate of 59.8%.
Ivashka's recent hard-court record is 11-4 with wins over players ranked 179, 248, and 268. Castelnuovo's 7-4 record includes wins over lower-ranked opponents, and his last five matches show a retirement loss. Ivashka's form appears more reliable, but Castelnuovo is on a four-match winning streak this week.
- Ivashka last 15 on hard: 11-4 record, 73.3% win rate.
- Castelnuovo last 15 on hard: 7-4 record, 63.6% win rate.
- Ivashka's recent wins include opponents ranked 179, 248, and 268; Castelnuovo's include 221, 370, and 628.
- Castelnuovo retired in a match on 2026-09-01 against Matthew Dellavedova.
Castelnuovo, 25, is a left-hander ranked 461 and has played 509 career matches.
Castelnuovo's four wins this week include a three-set victory over Chun Hsin Tseng and a straight-set win over Tung-Lin Wu. However, he retired from a match on September 1, raising a question about his physical condition. Ivashka has also played four matches this week, but his wins have been more efficient, with two straight-set victories.
- Castelnuovo's recent form: W, W, W, W, L (ret.) in last five matches.
- Castelnuovo retired against Matthew Dellavedova on 2026-09-01.
- Castelnuovo's last match was a three-set win over Chun Hsin Tseng (3-6 7-6(7) 6-2).
- Ivashka's last match was a straight-set win over Yi Zhou (6-3 6-3).
Ivashka's career return points won percentage is 40%, while Castelnuovo's is 37%.
Ivashka's higher return points won percentage suggests he can pressure Castelnuovo's serve more effectively. Castelnuovo's first serve points won is 75.4% on hard, slightly lower than Ivashka's 76.2%, so the return advantage may be decisive in key moments.
- Ivashka return points won on hard: 40.4% (468/1159).
- Castelnuovo return points won on hard: 37.0% (300/811).
- Ivashka first serve points won on hard: 76.2%.
- Castelnuovo first serve points won on hard: 75.4%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Ilya Ivashka

1.44fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 69.4%

0.0ppshort

Ivashka's superior recent hard-court record and return numbers give him an edge, but the odds overstate his probability relative to the model estimate.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Ivashka's stronger recent form and superior return/second-serve numbers on hard courts give him a clear edge over Castelnuovo.
- Ivashka last 15 overall record 11-4 (73.3%), Castelnuovo 8-7 (53.3%)
- Ivashka last 15 hard-court record 11-4, Castelnuovo 7-4 on hard
- Ivashka last 15 return points won 40.4%, Castelnuovo 35.8%
- Ivashka last 15 second serve points won 55.9%, Castelnuovo 50.2%
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonIlya IvashkaEstimated chance62%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches average over 22 games, and their competitive profiles suggest a close contest with a decent chance of going over 21.5 games.
- Castelnuovo last 15 average 22.4 games per match (180 games / 15 matches)
- Ivashka last 15 average 23.5 games per match (201 games / 15 matches)
- Both players have played multiple three-set matches recently
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The average set length for both players is near or above 9.5 games, making the over a reasonable lean.
- Castelnuovo last 15 average 10.0 games per set (180 games / 18 sets)
- Ivashka last 15 average 9.6 games per set (201 games / 21 sets)
- Both players have strong first-serve percentages, which can lead to longer sets
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Castelnuovo's recent form suggests he can keep the match close, making +3.5 games a reasonable handicap.
- Castelnuovo last 15 games won percentage 49.9%
- Ivashka last 15 games won percentage 56.9%
- Expected game differential is around 3-4 games in Ivashka's favor
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonLuca Castelnuovo +3.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Ivashka's superior first-serve and overall point-winning percentages suggest he is more likely to take the opening set.
- Ivashka last 15 first serve points won 76.2%, Castelnuovo 73.3%
- Ivashka last 15 total points won 53.5%, Castelnuovo 50.0%
- Ivashka has won first set in 10 of last 15 matches (estimated from recent form)
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonIlya IvashkaEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
With both players showing a tendency for three-set matches and no dominant edge, the match could easily go the distance.
- Castelnuovo last 15: 7 of 15 matches went to three sets
- Ivashka last 15: 6 of 15 matches went to three sets
- Both players have similar competitive levels, increasing chance of a decider
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined ace averages of both players exceed 12.5, making the over a plausible outcome.
- Castelnuovo last 15 aces per match 8.3
- Ivashka last 15 aces per match 4.5
- Combined average aces per match 12.8
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 12.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined double fault average is exactly 6.5, making the over a coin-flip but slightly favored due to potential pressure situations.
- Castelnuovo last 15 double faults per match 3.2
- Ivashka last 15 double faults per match 3.3
- Combined average double faults per match 6.5
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Given the competitive nature of the match and both players' tiebreak experience, a tiebreak is a realistic possibility.
- Castelnuovo career tiebreak win percentage 55%
- Ivashka career tiebreak win percentage 49%
- Both players have played multiple tiebreaks in recent matches
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance50%

Prediction history

Ilya Ivashka has been highly reliable when projected to win

Ilya Ivashka has fulfilled 10 of 13 win predictions, a 77% success rate. The average estimated probability was 68.7%, with an expected 8.9 wins, so he has outperformed expectations. All three misses were losses, and the current 62% probability sits within his historical range of 58-78%.

Recent evidence for Ilya Ivashka13 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

21 Jul·Segovia - Spain

#352Gonzalo Villanueva2-0#554Ilya Ivashka

BetBugsIlya Ivashka to win·65%

Missed

21 Jul 2026

Segovia - Spain

#352Gonzalo Villanueva2-0#554Ilya Ivashka

Ilya Ivashka to win

65%probability

Gonzalo Villanueva won

Missed

19 Jul·Pozoblanco - Spain

#191Chris Rodesch2-1#554Ilya Ivashka

BetBugsIlya Ivashka to win·62%

Missed

19 Jul 2026

Pozoblanco - Spain

#191Chris Rodesch2-1#554Ilya Ivashka

Ilya Ivashka to win

62%probability

Chris Rodesch won

Missed

18 Jul·Pozoblanco - Spain

#379Tiago Pereira1-2#554Ilya Ivashka

BetBugsIlya Ivashka to win·65%

Matched

18 Jul 2026

Pozoblanco - Spain

#379Tiago Pereira1-2#554Ilya Ivashka

Ilya Ivashka to win

65%probability

Ilya Ivashka won

Matched

17 Jul·Pozoblanco - Spain

#243Dan Added1-2#554Ilya Ivashka

BetBugsIlya Ivashka to win·72%

Matched

17 Jul 2026

Pozoblanco - Spain

#243Dan Added1-2#554Ilya Ivashka

Ilya Ivashka to win

72%probability

Ilya Ivashka won

Matched

16 Jul·Pozoblanco - Spain

#554Ilya Ivashka2-0#525Aziz Ouakaa

BetBugsIlya Ivashka to win·72%

Matched

16 Jul 2026

Pozoblanco - Spain

#554Ilya Ivashka2-0#525Aziz Ouakaa

Ilya Ivashka to win

72%probability

Ilya Ivashka won

Matched

Previous match context available

Luca Castelnuovo

8W 7L

6-4 6-4#768Ji Sung Nam

7-5 6-4#370Tung-Lin Wu

3-6 7-6(7) 6-2#221Chun Hsin Tseng

6-4 6-2#628Tsung-Hao Huang

4-6 6-3 4-1 ret.#293Matthew Dellavedova

6-7(3) 7-6(4) 6-1—Kuan-Shou Chen

6-4 6-4#305Yanki Erel

3-6 7-6(5) 6-1—Hiromasa Koyama

6-4 7-6(4)#460Moerani Bouzige

6-4 6-2#623Alexander Vasilev

7-5 6-4#356Antoine Ghibaudo

6-4 6-7(2) 6-3#259Max Basing

7-6(4) 6-3#551Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

6-3 6-3#625Gabriel Ghetu

6-3 3-6 7-5#291Franco Agamenone

Ilya Ivashka

11W 4L

6-3 6-3#248Yi Zhou

6-4 4-6 6-2#179Bernard Tomic

6-3 6-3#268Yu Hsiou Hsu

7-6(5) 6-4#275Ilia Simakin

6-4 4-6 6-1#331Akira Santillan

3-6 7-6(4) 6-3#248Yi Zhou

7-6(4) 6-4#171Joel Schwaerzler

6-1 5-7 6-3#657Ergi Kirkin

6-4 6-1#818Oscar Weightman

6-2 6-1—Melvin Kumar

6-3 6-3#321Gonzalo Villanueva

6-4 2-6 7-6(5)#151Chris Rodesch

7-6(5) 2-6 7-6(7)#355Tiago Pereira

6-7(4) 6-1 6-3#281Dan Added

6-1 6-0#533Aziz Ouakaa

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

LCLuca CastelnuovoCastelnuovo

Last 15

2–4

9 core stats · 3 even

Ilya IvashkaIvashkaII

Ilya Ivashka carries the stronger recent form — Luca Castelnuovo's route runs through serve.

Serve · 1–2 · 2 even

1st Serve In61.0%—60.5%

1st Serve Won73.3%+2.9pp76.2%

2nd Serve Won50.2%+5.7pp55.9%

Aces / Match8.3+3.84.5

Double Faults / Match3.2—3.3

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won35.8%+4.6pp40.4%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted41.7%+1.7pp40.0%

Break Pts Saved57.0%—56.7%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won50.0%+3.5pp53.5%

Serve · 1–2 · 2 even

61.0%1st Serve In—60.5%

73.3%1st Serve Won+2.9pp76.2%

50.2%2nd Serve Won+5.7pp55.9%

8.3Aces / Match+3.84.5

3.2Double Faults / Match—3.3

Return · 0–1

35.8%Return Pts Won+4.6pp40.4%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

41.7%Break Pts Converted+1.7pp40.0%

57.0%Break Pts Saved—56.7%

Points · 0–1

50.0%Total Pts Won+3.5pp53.5%