Ilya Ivashka #402Belarus22 – 0Yi Zhou #240China0

Ivashka, 393rd, has rebuilt his ranking through Challenger events and is 25-11 on hard courts in 2026. Zhou, 248th, has a 13-13 hard-court record this year.

Ivashka's 73.3% win rate in the last 15 matches is well above Zhou's 53.3%, and he won their September 1 meeting in three sets. Zhou's recent wins have come against lower-ranked opponents, while Ivashka has beaten several players inside the top 300. This form gap gives Ivashka a clear edge, though Zhou's higher ranking and home crowd could keep the match competitive.

Zhou's first serve is a key part of his game, and he has hit 117 aces in his last 15 matches. Ivashka relies more on consistency, with a 60.3% first-serve percentage.

Zhou's ace count gives him free points, but his 50.1% second-serve points won is below Ivashka's 55.8%, and he double-faults 2.8 times per match compared to Ivashka's 3.3. In their previous meeting, Zhou hit 10 aces but won only 49% of second-serve points, while Ivashka won 65%. If Zhou's first serve dips, Ivashka can attack the second serve and gain control of rallies.

Ivashka's return has been a consistent strength, helping him win 57.1% of games in his last 15 matches. Zhou's return is less effective, winning only 36.2% of return points.

Ivashka's higher return points won gives him more chances to break serve, and he converted 40% of break points in his last 15 matches. Zhou's lower return numbers mean he may struggle to pressure Ivashka's serve, especially on second serves. In their previous match, Ivashka won 37% of return points to Zhou's 30%, which helped him secure the win.