FranceCassis - FranceFinished

Predictions graded

Yanis Ghazouani Durand #584France2Leo Raquillet #665France0

Sets 6-1 · 6-3Mon 7 Sept 2026, 08:10 Predictions gradedQ3Hard

Predictions4–357%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageYanis Ghazouani Durand · 81 places

Yanis Ghazouani Durand

France

Ghazouani Durand, 26, is the 183cm right-hander in this matchup. He identified hard courts as his preferred surface in July 2026.

Current ranking: #584
Peak ranking: #565 · 2026
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Leo Raquillet

France

Raquillet is a 20-year-old French right-hander. His ATP career high of No. 634 was recorded in May 2026; available results show more 2026 wins on hard courts than clay, but this is not sufficient to label a preferred surface.

Current ranking: #665
Peak ranking: #634 · 2026
Current age: 20
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Sep 2026, 22:29 · Europe/Bucharest

Ghazouani Durand has better recent form and a H2H win, making him a moderate favorite.

The best value is on him to win at 1.90, with a 5.4-point edge. Expect a competitive match with potential for over 21.5 total games.

Context

Ghazouani Durand, 595th, has been more consistent over the last 15 matches, winning 66.7% of them.
That recent form includes a 6-3 6-2 win in the previous round on this same hard court, while Raquillet needed a straight-sets win over a lower-ranked opponent. Ghazouani Durand's 10-5 record in the sample is stronger than Raquillet's 7-8, but both players have faced mostly lower-tier opposition, so the edge is modest.
- Ghazouani Durand last15 overall record: 10-5 (66.7%).
- Raquillet last15 overall record: 7-8 (46.7%).
- Ghazouani Durand won his last match 6-3 6-2 on hard court; Raquillet won 6-2 6-2.
Ghazouani Durand has saved 63.4% of break points in his last 15 matches.
Raquillet has saved only 50% of break points in the same span. That gap matters on a hard court where service holds are crucial, but Raquillet converts break points at a higher rate (53.8% vs 43.1%), so the return game could offset some of that serving edge.
- Ghazouani Durand break points saved: 63.4% (78/123).
- Raquillet break points saved: 50% (57/114).
- Raquillet break points converted: 53.8% (64/119); Ghazouani Durand: 43.1% (59/137).
The two French players met once before, in March 2024 on indoor hard.
Ghazouani Durand won 7-6(4), 4-6, 6-2. That match is over two years old and on a different surface, so it is only a minor indicator, but it shows he can handle Raquillet's game in a close contest.
- H2H: Ghazouani Durand leads 1-0.
- 2024 match score: 7-6(4), 4-6, 6-2 on indoor hard.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.90
The read
Ghazouani Durand has stronger recent form and a direct H2H win, giving him a moderate edge in this Bo3 match.
- Last 15 overall record: 10-5 (66.7%) vs opponent 7-8 (46.7%)
- Last 15 total points won: 52% vs 50.3%
- H2H: Ghazouani Durand won their only meeting 7-6(4) 4-6 6-2 in 2024
- Hard surface last 15: 1-0 (100%) with 70.6% games won, though sample size is only 1 match
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonYanis Ghazouani DurandEstimated chance58%

Games0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players tend to play competitive matches with average total games above 21.5, and their H2H went to three sets.
- Ghazouani Durand last 15 average games per match: 21.3
- Raquillet last 15 average games per match: 23.2
- H2H match had 29 games
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Slight edge to Ghazouani Durand based on recent hard-court dominance and strong first-set conversion.
- Ghazouani Durand first set win conversion career: 86%
- Raquillet first set win conversion career: 85%
- Ghazouani Durand won his only hard-court match in straight sets (6-3 6-2)
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonYanis Ghazouani DurandEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average a high number of double faults, making over 7.5 likely.
- Ghazouani Durand last 15 double faults per match: 5.1
- Raquillet last 15 double faults per match: 3.3
- Combined average double faults per match: 8.4
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

1-0 (1 meetings)

W7-6(4) 4-6 6-2Yanis Ghazouani Durand#595vLeo Raquillet#662Mar 12, 2024

1 total meetings

Previous match context available

Yanis Ghazouani Durand

10W 5L

6-3 6-2—Gray Voelzke 7-5 1-6 6-3#893Szymon Kielan

2-6 6-2 6-2#861Nicolas Parizzia

6-2 6-1#693Gabriele Bosio

0-6 6-4 6-2#893Peter Buldorini

6-3 6-7(4) 6-4—Gabriele Crivellaro

6-1 6-2#361Geoffrey Blancaneaux

6-1 6-3—Arthur Bellegy

6-2 2-6 6-2—Pablo Pradat

6-3 6-1#386Laurent Lokoli

6-3 6-2#584Alexander Weis

6-2 6-4—Denis Constantin Spiridon

6-1 6-4#891Axel Garcian

6-7(6) 6-3 7-6(7)—Tanguy Genier

6-3 7-5#446Luca Staeheli

Leo Raquillet

7W 8L

6-2 6-2#753Matteo Covato

6-3 4-6 6-4—Lenny Couturier

6-0 6-2—Matis Roche

6-3 2-6 7-5#419Benjamin Hassan

4-6 6-3 6-0—Adrien Berrut

3-6 6-0 7-5#824Oskari Paldanius

3-6 6-3 6-4#392Georgii Kravchenko

7-6(2) 6-4#186Jan Kumstat

6-3 4-6 6-2#201Lorenzo Giustino

3-6 6-4 6-3#707Franco Ribero

6-2 6-1#867Tomohiro Masabayashi

6-1 3-6 7-5#341Marko Topo

6-4 6-2#233Kilian Feldbausch

7-5 ret.#250Pavel Kotov

7-5 2-6 6-3#381Manas Manoj Dhamne

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

YDYanis Ghazouani DurandDurand

Last 15

6–3

9 core stats · 0 even

Leo RaquilletRaquilletLR

Yanis Ghazouani Durand carries the stronger recent form — Leo Raquillet's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In58.6%+6.7pp65.3%

1st Serve Won66.7%+2.4pp64.3%

2nd Serve Won48.6%+2.9pp45.7%

Aces / Match2.3+0.61.7

Double Faults / Match5.11.8 fewer3.3

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won45.0%+2.4pp42.6%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted43.1%+10.7pp53.8%

Break Pts Saved63.4%+13.4pp50.0%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won52.0%+1.7pp50.3%

Serve · 3–2

58.6%1st Serve In+6.7pp65.3%

66.7%1st Serve Won+2.4pp64.3%

48.6%2nd Serve Won+2.9pp45.7%

2.3Aces / Match+0.61.7

5.1Double Faults / Match1.8 fewer3.3

Return · 1–0

45.0%Return Pts Won+2.4pp42.6%

Pressure · 1–1

43.1%Break Pts Converted+10.7pp53.8%

63.4%Break Pts Saved+13.4pp50.0%

Points · 1–0

52.0%Total Pts Won+1.7pp50.3%