PortugalPorto - PortugalFinished

Predictions graded

Szymon Kielan #893Poland2Yanis Ghazouani Durand #584France1

Sets 7-5 · 1-6 · 6-3Sun 30 Aug 2026, 09:10 Predictions gradedQ1Clay

Predictions3–538%

Edges0–40%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageYanis Ghazouani Durand · 309 places

Szymon Kielan

Poland

Kielan, 23, is the 196cm right-hander in this matchup. Public profile information did not identify a preferred singles surface.

Current ranking: #893
Peak ranking: #601 · 2023
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 196 cm

Yanis Ghazouani Durand

France

Ghazouani Durand, 26, is the 183cm right-hander in this matchup. He identified hard courts as his preferred surface in July 2026.

Current ranking: #584
Peak ranking: #565 · 2026
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 30 Aug 2026, 15:07 · Europe/Bucharest

Yanis Ghazouani Durand is a strong favorite based on recent form and clay-court performance, but the odds offer no value.

The match is likely to be decided in straight sets, with a lean towards over 21.5 total games and under 2.5 sets. Avoid betting on the match winner at current odds and consider in-play opportunities if Kielan shows early resistance.

Context

Kielan, 893rd, is a 196cm right-hander with a two-handed backhand. He has struggled in 2026, winning no matches on clay or hard courts.
His last two clay matches ended in retirement, and he has not completed a match since April. That raises questions about his physical readiness for this qualifying round. If he cannot sustain a full match, Ghazouani Durand's consistent recent play becomes even more decisive.
- Kielan retired at 6-4 down to Daniel Dutra Da Silva on 25 May 2026.
- He retired at 6-4 2-2 against Joshua Sheehy on 5 April 2026.
- He has lost his last five matches, including two retirements.
Ghazouani Durand, 584th, is a 183cm right-hander with a two-handed backhand. He has played almost exclusively on clay in recent months.
His 66.7% win rate on clay in the last 15 matches contrasts sharply with Kielan's 33.3% on the same surface. Ghazouani Durand also wins more return points and total points, suggesting he can control rallies from the baseline. Kielan's lower first-serve percentage and higher double-fault rate could give away cheap points.
- Ghazouani Durand's last 15 matches are all on clay, with a 10-5 record.
- Kielan's clay record in his last 15 is 3-6.
- Ghazouani Durand wins 45.4% of return points vs Kielan's 38.0%.
- Kielan averages 4.0 double faults per clay match vs Ghazouani Durand's 5.3, but Kielan's first-serve percentage is 64.4% vs 59.1%.
The two players met once before, in a qualifying round at an indoor hard event.
Kielan won 1-6 6-3 11-9, but that was on indoor hard, not clay. Ghazouani Durand's current clay form is much stronger than his indoor hard form from that period, so the H2H may not translate directly to this surface.
- Kielan defeated Ghazouani Durand 1-6 6-3 11-9 on 6 January 2025.
- The match was on indoor hard, while this match is on clay.
This is the first qualifying round on an outdoor hard court in Porto, so both players start from the same early-tournament position with no prior match load this week.
- The match is listed in Porto qualifying's first round on 30 August, with Court 1 and an outdoor hard court specified.
ConfirmedSources checked 30 Aug 2026, 15:05 · Europe/BucharestSofascore match centrewww.sofascore.com · 30 Aug 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Yanis Ghazouani Durand

1.30fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 76.9%

0.0ppshort

Ghazouani Durand's superior recent form and return stats on clay make him a strong favorite, but the odds are slightly shorter than the model estimate.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Yanis Ghazouani Durand

1.30fair 1.54

BetBugs 72% · Market 76.9%

0.0ppshort

Ghazouani Durand's recent form is strong, but the odds imply a higher probability than the model estimate.

Total GameslostUncertainty band: Lean

Over 28.5

1.50fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 66.7%

−8.7ppshort

Both players' recent match lengths and Ghazouani Durand's longer average duration suggest a competitive match, but the line of 28.5 is higher than the model's projected total.

Game HandicaplostUncertainty band: Lean

Yanis Ghazouani Durand -4.5

1.50fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 66.7%

−8.7ppshort

Ghazouani Durand's superior game-winning percentage and return stats suggest he can cover a -4.5 game handicap, but the odds imply a higher probability than the model estimate.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Ghazouani Durand has a strong recent form and return edge on clay, while Kielan has struggled with only 4 wins in his last 15 matches.
- Last 15 overall record: Ghazouani Durand 10-5 (66.7%) vs Kielan 4-11 (26.7%)
- Last 15 on clay: Ghazouani Durand 10-5 (66.7%), Kielan 3-6 (33.3%)
- Return points won last 15: Ghazouani Durand 45.4% vs Kielan 38.0%
- Ranking: Ghazouani Durand 584 vs Kielan 893
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostYanis Ghazouani DurandEstimated chance72%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent match lengths and Ghazouani Durand's longer average duration suggest a competitive match with over 21.5 total games.
- Ghazouani Durand average match duration last 15: 118.7 minutes
- Kielan average match duration last 15: 76.3 minutes
- Ghazouani Durand last 15 average games per match: 21.2 (318 games / 15 matches)
- Kielan last 15 average games per match: 18.9 (284 games / 15 matches)
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Ghazouani Durand's superior game-winning percentage and return stats suggest he can cover a -3.5 game handicap.
- Ghazouani Durand games won last 15: 54.4% vs Kielan 43.3%
- Ghazouani Durand return points won last 15: 45.4% vs Kielan 38.0%
- Ghazouani Durand has won 7 of last 10 clay matches by 4+ games
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostYanis Ghazouani Durand -3.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined first-set game averages are right at the 9.5 line, making over 9.5 a coin-flip proposition.
- Ghazouani Durand average first set games last 15: 9.8
- Kielan average first set games last 15: 9.1
- Combined average first set games: 9.5
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance50%

Sets0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Ghazouani Durand's superior recent set-winning rate and strong first-set conversion make him likely to take the opening set.
- Ghazouani Durand first set win conversion career: 86% vs Kielan 84%
- Ghazouani Durand last 15 sets won: 61.1% vs Kielan 32.3%
- Ghazouani Durand has won first set in 8 of last 10 clay matches
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostYanis Ghazouani DurandEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The strong form gap and straight-set trends favor a two-set match, supporting under 2.5 total sets.
- Ghazouani Durand has won 7 of last 10 clay matches in straight sets
- Kielan has lost 8 of last 15 matches in straight sets
- Ghazouani Durand sets won last 15: 61.1% vs Kielan 32.3%
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Given the expected dominance by Ghazouani Durand and the low frequency of tiebreaks in his recent matches, a tiebreak is unlikely.
- Ghazouani Durand tiebreak win percentage career: 53%
- Kielan tiebreak win percentage career: 48%
- Only 2 of Ghazouani Durand's last 15 matches featured a tiebreak
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average over 4.5 double faults per match, making over 9.5 total double faults likely.
- Kielan double faults per match last 15: 4.8
- Ghazouani Durand double faults per match last 15: 5.3
- Combined average double faults per match: 10.1
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined ace rates of both players are close to the 6.5 line, making over 6.5 a marginal but plausible outcome.
- Kielan aces per match last 15: 3.9
- Ghazouani Durand aces per match last 15: 2.5
- Combined average aces per match: 6.4
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance52%

Head-to-Head

1-0 (1 meetings)

W1-6 6-3 11-9Szymon Kielan#893vYanis Ghazouani Durand#584Jan 6, 2025

1 total meetings

Szymon Kielan

4W 11L

6-4 ret.#457Daniel Dutra Da Silva

6-4 2-2 ret.#750Joshua Sheehy

6-2 6-3#363Gabriele Piraino

6-2 6-1#886Iiro Vasa

4-6 6-3 7-6(5)#478Lorenzo Carboni

6-4 6-2—Alessandro Spadola

6-1 6-4#214Henri Squire

6-2 6-2#313Miguel Damas

6-3 6-0#639Maxwell Mckennon

6-4 6-4#865Bautista Vilicich

7-5 2-6 6-3#175Zdenek Kolar

6-2 6-4—Patrik Munkhammar

4-6 6-1 6-3#700Franco Ribero

6-3 6-2#225Moez Echargui

7-5 6-2—Jake Trondson

Yanis Ghazouani Durand

10W 5L

2-6 6-2 6-2#861Nicolas Parizzia

6-2 6-1#683Gabriele Bosio

0-6 6-4 6-2#893Peter Buldorini

6-3 6-7(4) 6-4—Gabriele Crivellaro

6-1 6-2#356Geoffrey Blancaneaux

6-1 6-3—Arthur Bellegy

6-2 2-6 6-2—Pablo Pradat

6-3 6-1#434Laurent Lokoli

6-3 6-2#613Alexander Weis

6-2 6-4—Denis Constantin Spiridon

6-1 6-4#891Axel Garcian

6-7(6) 6-3 7-6(7)—Tanguy Genier

6-3 7-5#442Luca Staeheli

6-3 6-3#689Isaac Becroft

6-4 1-6 6-3#476Sergi Perez Contri

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

SKSzymon KielanKielan

Last 15

4–5

9 core stats · 0 even

Yanis Ghazouani DurandDurandYD

Yanis Ghazouani Durand carries the stronger recent form — Szymon Kielan's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In14/15 · 15/1561.5%+2.4pp59.1%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/1564.6%+2.1pp66.7%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/1538.9%+8.0pp46.9%

Aces / Match14/15 · 15/153.9+1.42.5

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/154.80.5 fewer5.3

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/1538.0%+7.4pp45.4%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/1551.5%+3.8pp47.7%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/1556.6%+3.7pp60.3%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/1546.6%+5.4pp52.0%

Serve · 3–2

61.5%1st Serve In14/15 · 15/15+2.4pp59.1%

64.6%1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+2.1pp66.7%

38.9%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+8.0pp46.9%

3.9Aces / Match14/15 · 15/15+1.42.5

4.8Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/150.5 fewer5.3

Return · 0–1

38.0%Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+7.4pp45.4%

Pressure · 1–1

51.5%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/15+3.8pp47.7%

56.6%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/15+3.7pp60.3%

Points · 0–1

46.6%Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+5.4pp52.0%