Milan - ItalyFinished

Predictions graded

Francesco Passaro #185Italy0Enrico Dalla Valle #359Italy2

Sets 2-6 · 4-6Wed 1 Jul 2026, 10:28 Predictions gradedSecond RoundClay

Predictions7–0100%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageFrancesco Passaro · 174 places

Francesco Passaro

Italy

Clay is the favourite surface listed in his ATP bio. He reached a career-high No. 89 on 2025-02-17, and many of his strongest Challenger results have come on Italian clay.

Current ranking: #185
Peak ranking: #89 · 2025
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Enrico Dalla Valle

Italy

He reached a career-high No. 242 on 2024-06-24. SuperTennis reported in August 2023 that serious hip problems and surgery caused a 14-month stop in 2021-22, but that is background rather than an active 2026 fitness issue.

Current ranking: #359
Peak ranking: #242 · 2024
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 196 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 30 Jun 2026, 15:25 · Europe/Bucharest

Enrico Dalla Valle holds a clear edge over Francesco Passaro, backed by a 2-0 H2H record on clay, superior 2026 clay win rate (67% vs. 50%), and dominant recent form.

Betting value lies in Dalla Valle's moneyline at 1.85, with a 7.9-point edge, and the match is expected to be under 21.5 total games with a straight-sets outcome.

Context

Dalla Valle leads H2H 2-0, both on clay, with scores of 6-2 6-3 (2024) and 6-1 6-7 6-1 (2023).
- In H2H, Dalla Valle won 75% of first-serve points vs Passaro's 50%, and converted 46% of break points vs 33%.
- Passaro has never taken a set off Dalla Valle in straight sets; the only set he won required a tiebreak.
Dalla Valle is 32-16 on clay in 2026 (67% win rate); Passaro is 6-6 (50%).
- In his last five matches, Dalla Valle went 4-1 with wins over Travaglia (ranked 130) and Nesterov (369), losing only to Santamarta Roig (782).
- Passaro is 2-3 in his last five, with losses to McDonald (569) and Roca Batalla (319), and a retirement against Vallejo (72) in February.
Dalla Valle came through qualifying with wins over Arnaboldi, Nesterov, and Travaglia, all in straight sets.
- Passaro's last match was a 6-4 7-5 win over Michalski on 30 June, his only match this week.
- Extra matches can build rhythm but also add fatigue; Dalla Valle's scores were comfortable (6-2 3-1 ret., 6-1 6-1, 7-6 6-1).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Dalla Valle's dominant H2H record on clay, superior recent form, and stronger 2026 clay win rate give him a clear edge over Passaro.
- H2H: Dalla Valle leads 2-0, both on clay, with dominant wins (6-2 6-3 in 2024, 6-1 6-7 6-1 in 2023).
- Recent form (last 5): Dalla Valle 4-1 with dominant wins over Travaglia (130), Nesterov (369); Passaro 2-3 with losses to lower-ranked players.
- Surface edge: Dalla Valle 32-16 on clay in 2026 (67% win rate) vs Passaro 6-6 (50%).
- Serve/return: Dalla Valle higher break point convert rate (43% vs 41%) and better first-serve win% on clay in H2H (75% vs 50%).
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonEnrico Dalla ValleEstimated chance62%

Games2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Dalla Valle's dominant recent scorelines and low-game H2H history suggest a relatively quick match, likely under 21.5 games.
- H2H matches: 17 and 22 games, averaging 19.5.
- Dalla Valle's last 5 wins: 13, 12, 9, 12, 12 games (avg 11.6).
- Passaro's recent losses: 18, 12, 17, 12 games (avg 14.75).
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Dalla Valle's comfortable H2H margins and recent dominant wins suggest he can cover a -3.5 game handicap.
- H2H: Dalla Valle won by 7 and 5 games.
- Dalla Valle's last 5 wins: avg margin of 7.6 games.
- Passaro's last 5 losses: avg margin of 5.6 games.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonEnrico Dalla Valle -3.5Estimated chance52%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Dalla Valle's strong first-set record in H2H and recent matches, combined with Passaro's slow starts, makes him likely to take the opener.
- Dalla Valle won first set in both H2H meetings (6-2, 6-1).
- Recent form: Dalla Valle won first set in 4 of last 5 matches; Passaro lost first set in 3 of last 5.
- First-set win conversion: Dalla Valle 88% career vs Passaro 82%.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonEnrico Dalla ValleEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches often finish in straight sets, supporting under 2.5 total sets.
- Dalla Valle's last 5 wins: all in straight sets.
- Passaro's last 5 matches: 3 ended in straight sets.
- H2H: 1 of 2 matches ended in straight sets.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Dalla Valle's recent dominance and Passaro's vulnerability in straight-set losses make a 2-0 win plausible, though not highly certain.
- Dalla Valle won in straight sets in 1 of 2 H2H meetings.
- Dalla Valle's last 5 wins: all straight sets.
- Passaro lost in straight sets in 3 of last 5 losses.
BetBugs · Set BettingwonEnrico Dalla Valle 2-0Estimated chance50%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have relatively low tiebreak frequencies, and Dalla Valle's dominance reduces the likelihood of tight sets.
- H2H: 1 tiebreak in 2 matches.
- Dalla Valle's last 10 matches: 2 tiebreaks.
- Passaro's last 10 matches: 3 tiebreaks.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
With both players having similar ace rates and a projected match length around 20 games, over 7.5 total aces is likely.
- Dalla Valle ace rate: 5.3% (career), Passaro: 5.1%.
- H2H: combined 6 aces in 2 matches (avg 3 per match, but small sample).
- Both players average ~0.4-0.5 aces per game, projecting ~8-10 aces in a 20-game match.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 7.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Historical H2H double fault counts and both players' rates point to over 5.5 total double faults.
- H2H: combined 17 double faults in 2 matches (avg 8.5 per match).
- Passaro double fault rate: 3.0%, Dalla Valle: 2.6%.
- Projected ~20 games: ~6-7 double faults expected.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Estimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

0-2 (2 meetings)

L6-2 6-3Francesco Passaro#185vEnrico Dalla Valle#359Jul 10, 2024

L6-1 6-7(3) 6-1Francesco Passaro#185vEnrico Dalla Valle#359Aug 10, 2023

2 total meetings

Francesco Passaro

8W 7L

6-4 7-5#302Daniel Michalski

6-7(5) 6-3 6-4#569Niels Mcdonald

7-6(2) 6-4#319Oriol Roca Batalla

6-4 6-0#319Oriol Roca Batalla

6-3 3-3 ret.#72Adolfo Daniel Vallejo

4-6 7-6(0) 6-2#33Alejandro Tabilo

6-3 6-4#89Dino Prizmic

6-4 6-4#129Vilius Gaubas

7-6(4) 6-3#147Elmer Moller

5-7 7-5 6-4#34Ignacio Buse

5-7 6-4 6-2#195Marco Cecchinato

6-3 6-3#327Nicolas Kicker

7-5 6-4#168Daniil Glinka

6-3 1-6 6-1#317Stefan Kozlov

7-6(6) 6-2#291Calvin Hemery

Enrico Dalla Valle

11W 4L

7-6(3) 6-1#130Stefano Travaglia

6-1 6-1#369Petr Nesterov

6-2 3-1 ret.#585Federico Arnaboldi

6-2 6-4#782Andres Santamarta Roig

6-0 6-2#745Nikita Bilozertsev

6-2 7-5#110Sebastian Ofner

6-2 6-3#629Alexander Weis

6-3 7-5#527Jakub Paul

6-3 6-2—Flavio Bocci

2-6 7-6(7) 6-2#73Jesper De Jong

7-6(2) 6-1#319Oriol Roca Batalla

7-6(4) 6-1#366Carlos Sanchez Jover

7-5 6-2#284Maks Kasnikowski

6-4 7-6(7)#122Henrique Rocha

6-2 6-4#463Miguel Tobon