AustriaTulln - AustriaFinished

Predictions graded

Andrej Martin #402Slovakia0Svyatoslav Gulin #576Russia2

Sets 6-7 · 4-6Mon 7 Sept 2026, 10:05 Predictions gradedQ3Clay

Predictions5–363%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAndrej Martin · 174 places

Andrej Martin

Slovakia

Martin reached a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 93 on 10 February 2020. He is a 36-year-old Slovak right-hander with a two-handed backhand.

Current ranking: #402
Peak ranking: #93 · 2020
Current age: 36
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Svyatoslav Gulin

Russia

Russian player born 4 December 2002. Reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 358 in June 2025; no reliable preferred-surface designation was found in the requested searches.

Current ranking: #576
Peak ranking: #358 · 2025
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 7 Sep 2026, 06:07 · Europe/Bucharest

Martin's stronger recent form, superior return game, and break point conversion give him a clear edge over Gulin on clay.

Gulin's serve and ace count could keep sets tight, but Martin is the value play at 2.20 with a 62% estimated win probability. Expect a competitive match with potential for over 21.5 total games.

Context

Martin, 35, is a clay-court specialist ranked 401 with a career win percentage of 58.4%.
Martin's 73.3% win rate in his last 15 clay matches is better than Gulin's 60%, but his recent opponents have been mostly unranked or outside the top 400. Gulin has faced slightly stronger opposition, including wins over players ranked 192 and 444. This suggests Martin's form may be inflated by weaker competition, making the match closer than the raw records indicate.
- Martin's last 15 clay record: 11-4 (73.3% win rate).
- Gulin's last 15 clay record: 9-6 (60% win rate).
- Martin's recent wins include opponents ranked 870, 899, and unranked players.
- Gulin's recent wins include opponents ranked 192 and 444.
Gulin, 23, is a right-hander ranked 592 with a career win percentage of 67.8%.
Gulin's first-serve points won (72.8%) is significantly higher than Martin's (66.3%), and his ace rate (5.7 per match) is more than triple Martin's (1.7). This gives Gulin a clear advantage on serve, which could be decisive in a best-of-three clay match where holding serve is crucial.
- Gulin first-serve points won: 72.8% (last 15 matches).
- Martin first-serve points won: 66.3% (last 15 matches).
- Gulin aces per match: 5.7; Martin: 1.7.
Martin's return points won percentage is 43.8% in his last 15 matches.
Martin's higher return points won (43.8% vs 39.7%) suggests he can pressure Gulin's second serve and create more break opportunities. However, Gulin's stronger first serve may limit those chances, making this a key battle in the match.
- Martin return points won: 43.8% (last 15 matches).
- Gulin return points won: 39.7% (last 15 matches).
Gulin spent 49 more minutes on court in his qualifying opener than Martin, which could leave him slightly less fresh for this match.
- Martin's 6-4 6-2 win lasted 1 hour 9 minutes 52 seconds, while Gulin's 7-5 7-6(5) win lasted 1 hour 58 minutes 58 seconds.
ConfirmedSources checked 7 Sep 2026, 06:06 · Europe/BucharestAndrej Martin vs Svyatoslav Gulin H2H Stats and Predictionwww.stevegtennis.com · 7 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Martin's stronger recent form and superior return/break conversion on clay give him a clear edge.
- Martin last-15 record 11-4 (73.3%) vs Gulin 9-6 (60%)
- Martin return points won 43.8% vs Gulin 39.7%
- Martin break points converted 47.5% vs Gulin 33.0%
- Martin ranking 401 vs Gulin 592
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostAndrej MartinEstimated chance62%

Games4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Competitive clay-court matchup with both players showing three-set tendencies points to a longer match.
- Martin last-15 average 21.1 games per match
- Gulin last-15 average 21.5 games per match
- Both players have multiple three-set matches in recent form
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent first sets have been close, with several tiebreaks, suggesting a competitive opener.
- Martin last-15 first set average 9.8 games
- Gulin last-15 first set average 9.7 games
- Both players have tiebreaks in recent first sets
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Gulin's serve and competitive recent form make the +3.5 game handicap a reasonable cover.
- Gulin last-15 games won 53.9% vs Martin 55.2%
- Gulin has kept matches close against higher-ranked opponents
- Martin's recent wins have often been by 4+ games, but Gulin's serve can keep sets tight
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonSvyatoslav Gulin +3.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets have been similarly tight, supporting a higher game total.
- Martin last-15 second set average 9.6 games
- Gulin last-15 second set average 9.4 games
- Both players have won and lost second sets by narrow margins
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Martin's strong first-set record and recent fast starts support a set-one win.
- Martin first set win conversion career 86%
- Martin last-15 sets won 65.7% vs Gulin 60%
- Martin won first set in 4 of last 5 matches
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostAndrej MartinEstimated chance60%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Gulin's serve is a significant ace threat, pushing the combined total above the line.
- Gulin averages 5.7 aces per match in last 15
- Martin averages 1.7 aces per match in last 15
- Combined average 7.4 aces per match
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Close sets and similar serve/return profiles make a tiebreak likely.
- Gulin has played tiebreaks in 4 of last 15 matches
- Martin has played tiebreaks in 3 of last 15 matches
- Both players have tiebreak win percentages near 50%
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Martin's high double fault rate drives the combined total over the line.
- Martin averages 3.5 double faults per match in last 15
- Gulin averages 1.5 double faults per match in last 15
- Combined average 5.0 double faults per match
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance52%

Prediction history

Andrej Martin has been highly reliable when projected to win

Andrej Martin has fulfilled 5 of 7 recent win predictions, a 71% success rate. His average estimated probability was 59.9%, with an expected 4.2 wins, so he has outperformed expectations. Both missed predictions occurred when he was the home favorite, while all five wins came either at home or away with similar probabilities.

Recent evidence for Andrej Martin7 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

27 Jul·Liberec - Czech Republic

#404Andrej Martin2-1#557Alec Beckley

BetBugsAndrej Martin to win·62%

Matched

27 Jul 2026

Liberec - Czech Republic

#404Andrej Martin2-1#557Alec Beckley

Andrej Martin to win

62%probability

Andrej Martin won

Matched

6 Jul·Trieste - Italy

#402Andrej Martin0-2#458Henry Bernet

BetBugsAndrej Martin to win·62%

Missed

6 Jul 2026

Trieste - Italy

#402Andrej Martin0-2#458Henry Bernet

Andrej Martin to win

62%probability

Henry Bernet won

Missed

10 Jun·Bratislava - Slovakia

#350Petr Brunclik2-0#425Andrej Martin

BetBugsAndrej Martin to win·58%

Missed

10 Jun 2026

Bratislava - Slovakia

#350Petr Brunclik2-0#425Andrej Martin

Andrej Martin to win

58%probability

Petr Brunclik won

Missed

9 Jun·Bratislava - Slovakia

#306Tiago Pereira1-2#425Andrej Martin

BetBugsAndrej Martin to win·62%

Matched

9 Jun 2026

Bratislava - Slovakia

#306Tiago Pereira1-2#425Andrej Martin

Andrej Martin to win

62%probability

Andrej Martin won

Matched

8 Jun·Bratislava - Slovakia

#444Andrej Martin2-1#473Alex Marti Pujolras

BetBugsAndrej Martin to win·58%

Matched

8 Jun 2026

Bratislava - Slovakia

#444Andrej Martin2-1#473Alex Marti Pujolras

Andrej Martin to win

58%probability

Andrej Martin won

Matched

Previous match context available

Andrej Martin

11W 4L

6-4 6-2—Jonas Gundacker

6-0 6-1#870Manuel Plunger

6-3 2-6 6-3#637Giovanni Oradini

6-3 6-3#899Lorenzo Rottoli

0-6 6-0 6-0—Leyton Rivera

6-4 6-3—Benedikt Szerencsits

6-2 6-2#269Filip Cristian Jianu

6-4 5-7 6-4#437Javier Barranco Cosano

6-1 6-2#1576Boris Arias

6-1 6-4#198Thiago Seyboth Wild

7-5 1-6 7-6(11)#566Alec Beckley

6-3 6-4—Tommy Luxa

7-6(0) 6-1#339Mathys Erhard

7-6(3) 6-3#442Marat Sharipov (RUS)

6-3 6-7(5) 6-4—Alexander Wagner

Svyatoslav Gulin

9W 6L

7-5 7-6(5)#458Rudolf Molleker

7-6(9) 6-3#369Norbert Gombos

6-3 1-6 6-3#458Rudolf Molleker

4-6 6-4 6-1#263Martin Krumich

6-3 6-2—Henri Haupt

6-3 7-6(3)#444Denis Yevseyev

7-6(4) 6-3#734Peter Fajta

6-3 3-6 6-2#869Jakub Paul

6-4 1-6 6-4#201Lorenzo Giustino

6-3 6-2#598Amit Vales

6-1 6-2—Augustin Damonte

6-4 6-3#233Kilian Feldbausch

6-1 3-6 6-1#600Pierre Delage

7-5 6-1#148Pedro Martinez Portero

6-2 6-3#192David Jorda Sanchis

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

AMAndrej MartinMartin

Last 15

3–5

9 core stats · 1 even

Svyatoslav GulinGulinSG

Svyatoslav Gulin carries the stronger recent form — Andrej Martin's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 0–5

1st Serve In54.9%+4.0pp58.9%

1st Serve Won66.3%+6.5pp72.8%

2nd Serve Won51.9%+4.9pp56.8%

Aces / Match1.7+4.05.7

Double Faults / Match3.52.0 fewer1.5

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won43.8%+4.1pp39.7%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted47.5%+14.5pp33.0%

Break Pts Saved61.2%+6.7pp54.5%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won52.1%—52.5%

Serve · 0–5

54.9%1st Serve In+4.0pp58.9%

66.3%1st Serve Won+6.5pp72.8%

51.9%2nd Serve Won+4.9pp56.8%

1.7Aces / Match+4.05.7

3.5Double Faults / Match2.0 fewer1.5

Return · 1–0

43.8%Return Pts Won+4.1pp39.7%

Pressure · 2–0

47.5%Break Pts Converted+14.5pp33.0%

61.2%Break Pts Saved+6.7pp54.5%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

52.1%Total Pts Won—52.5%