Andrej Martin #444Slovakia22 – 1Alex Marti Pujolras #473Spain1

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.85

The read

Martin's H2H win, superior break-point conversion, and slightly better recent form on clay give him a moderate edge in this Bo3 match.

• H2H: Martin won their only meeting 6-2 5-7 6-3 on clay in Feb 2025, with superior break-point conversion (45% vs 17%) and second-serve win rate (52% vs 43%).
• Surface edge: Martin has 515 career clay wins (58.2% overall) and is 13-7 on clay in 2026; Pujolras is 22-10 on clay in 2026 but has a lower career win rate on clay (358 wins, 61.1% overall).
• Recent form: Martin is 4-1 in his last 5 matches, all on clay, including a three-set win yesterday; Pujolras is 3-2 in his last 5, with a straight-set loss to Luka Mikrut (rank 195).

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80

The read

The combination of high break-point conversion rates and recent match lengths averaging over 21.5 games supports a total games over in this Bo3 clay-court encounter.

• Martin's last 5 matches averaged 22.2 total games; Pujolras' last 5 averaged 21.6 total games.
• Both players have high break-point conversion rates (Martin 43.7%, Pujolras 48%) and moderate save rates (Martin 57.5%, Pujolras 55.4%), leading to more breaks and longer matches.
• H2H match had 29 games (6-2, 5-7, 6-3).

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

While Pujolras' recent second sets have been shorter, Martin's trend and the overall break-heavy dynamic support a slight lean toward over 9.5 games in set 2.

• Martin's last 5 second sets: 6-3, 4-6, 6-4, 6-4, 6-4 — average 9.4 games, with 3 of 5 over 9.5.
• Pujolras' last 5 second sets: 6-2, 5-7, 6-2, 3-6, 6-0 — average 8.6 games, with 2 of 5 over 9.5.
• Both players have similar second-serve win rates (Martin 48.9%, Pujolras 44.7%), which can lead to breaks and extended sets.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Martin's recent trend of winning first sets and his dominant first set in the H2H suggest a slight edge, but the low confidence reflects the small sample and similar first-set conversion rates.

• Martin has won the first set in 4 of his last 5 matches; Pujolras has won the first set in 3 of his last 5.
• Career first-set win conversion: Martin 85%, Pujolras 86% — nearly identical.
• H2H: Martin won the first set 6-2 in their only meeting.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Given both players' low ace rates and the clay surface, the total aces are likely to stay under 6.5, with the H2H outlier not expected to repeat.

• Martin's ace rate is 3.5% (career 1906 aces in 1091 matches); Pujolras' ace rate is 2.2% (career 673 aces in 592 matches).
• In their H2H, Martin hit 2 aces and Pujolras hit 7 aces, but Pujolras' 7 aces came with 10 double faults, indicating an outlier serving performance.
• Both players have low first-serve percentages (Martin 62%, Pujolras 63%) and rely more on rallying than aces on clay.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Pujolras' elevated double-fault rate and the H2H evidence point to a total double faults over 7.5, though Martin's moderate rate keeps confidence low.

• Martin's double-fault rate is 4.4% (career 2432 in 1091 matches); Pujolras' double-fault rate is 6.7% (career 2070 in 592 matches).
• In their H2H, Martin had 3 double faults and Pujolras had 10 double faults.
• Pujolras' high double-fault rate suggests he will contribute significantly to the total.