CzechiaLiberec - Czech RepublicFinished

Predictions graded

Andrej Martin #404Slovakia2Alec Beckley #5571

Sets 7-5 · 1-6 · 7-6Mon 27 Jul 2026, 11:31 Predictions gradedQ3Clay

Predictions7–188%

Edges4–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAndrej Martin · 153 places

Andrej Martin

Slovakia

Reached a career-high No. 93 on February 10, 2020. His competitive record and titles are heavily concentrated on clay.

Current ranking: #404
Peak ranking: #93 · 2020
Current age: 36
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Alec Beckley

Reached a career-high No. 486 on June 8, 2026. The ITF lists hard as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #557
Peak ranking: #486 · 2026
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 27 Jul 2026, 15:34 · Europe/Bucharest

Andrej Martin's vast clay-court experience and Liberec success make him the clear favorite against Alec Beckley, who has limited clay exposure and a weak return game.

Despite Martin's heavy recent workload, expect a competitive match with a high probability of over 22.5 games and over 5.5 double faults, with value in Martin winning 2-1.

Context

Martin played four matches from July 21-25, including three-setters on July 21 and 23, and a semifinal on July 25.
- He then beat Tommy Luxa in straight sets on July 26, making this his sixth match in seven days.
- His last 15 matches average 115.9 minutes, with several going over two hours, indicating a high physical toll.
Beckley's last 15 overall record is 11-4, but only 3 of those matches were on clay, where he went 1-2.
- On clay, he wins only 38.9% of return points and 49.4% of games, compared to 43.3% and 56.3% on hard courts.
- His career clay win percentage is 55.7%, lower than Martin's 59.4%, and he has never played at Liberec before.
Martin won the Liberec Challenger in 2014 and 2018, and was a finalist in 2015.
- He also reached the round of 16 in 2025, demonstrating consistent performance at this venue.
- Beckley has no prior matches at Liberec, and his limited clay experience adds to the disadvantage.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Total GameswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 22.5

1.50fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 66.7%

−1.7ppshort

Both players have shown a tendency for longer matches recently, with Martin's last 15 averaging 22.9 games and Beckley's clay matches averaging 25.7 games.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Andrej Martin

1.44fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 69.4%

0.0ppshort

Martin's extensive clay-court pedigree and tournament experience give him a clear edge, despite Beckley's strong overall recent form on hard courts.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Andrej Martin

1.50fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 66.7%

0.0ppshort

Martin has won the first set in 10 of his last 15 matches, and his experience on clay gives him an edge in the opening set.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Martin's superior clay-court pedigree and tournament experience give him the edge, despite Beckley's strong overall recent form on hard courts.
- Martin has a 60% win rate (9-6) in his last 15 matches, all on clay, with 52.3% games won.
- Beckley's last 15 overall record is 73.3% (11-4), but only 3 of those matches were on clay, where he went 1-2 (33.3%) with 49.4% games won.
- Martin has extensive Liberec experience, winning the title in 2014 and 2018, while Beckley is making his first appearance.
- Martin's career clay win percentage is 526-359 (59.4%), compared to Beckley's 59-47 (55.7%).
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAndrej MartinEstimated chance62%

Games3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The combination of Martin's consistent match length and Beckley's clay matches going the distance suggests a high probability of exceeding 21.5 games.
- Martin's last 15 matches averaged 22.9 games per match (344 total games / 15 matches).
- Beckley's last 3 clay matches averaged 25.7 games per match (77 total games / 3 matches).
- Both players have a high percentage of three-set matches recently, which inflates total games.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
With both players holding serve effectively, the first set is likely to be competitive and exceed 9.5 games.
- Martin's last 15 matches have seen an average of 9.6 games in the first set (based on recent form data).
- Beckley's last 3 clay matches had first-set game totals of 9, 9, and 7, averaging 8.3.
- Both players have first-serve win percentages around 65-69%, indicating tight service games.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The second set often remains tight as players adjust, and the stats support a higher game count.
- Martin's recent second sets have averaged 9.8 games, with several going to tiebreaks or 7-5 scores.
- Beckley's clay matches have seen second-set totals of 12, 12, and 10 games.
- Both players have break-point save rates above 55%, extending sets.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Beckley's competitiveness on clay, even in losses, suggests he can cover a 3.5-game handicap against Martin.
- Martin's average game margin in his last 15 wins is +4.2 games, but his losses have been by an average of -5.0 games.
- Beckley's last 3 clay matches have been decided by 5, 1, and 5 games, with an average margin of -3.7 in his loss.
- Beckley's overall game win percentage on clay is 49.4%, suggesting he can keep matches close.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonAlec Beckley +3.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Martin's strong start in recent matches and his experience on clay give him the edge in the opening set.
- Martin has won the first set in 10 of his last 15 matches (66.7%).
- Beckley has won the first set in 2 of his last 3 clay matches, but his overall first-set win rate on clay is lower.
- Martin's first-set win conversion rate in his career is 86%, indicating he often closes out matches after winning the first set.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonAndrej MartinEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Both players have relatively high double-fault rates, making it likely they will combine for over 5.5 double faults.
- Martin averages 3.7 double faults per match in his last 15, while Beckley averages 2.7 overall and 2.7 on clay.
- Combined, they average 6.4 double faults per match.
- Martin's second-serve points won is only 48.4%, indicating pressure on his second serve.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Market price1.85Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
While not ace machines, the combined average is close to 5.5, and Martin's serving edge on clay could push the total over.
- Martin averages 3.2 aces per match in his last 15, while Beckley averages 1.7 overall but 1.3 on clay.
- Combined, they average 4.9 aces per match, but Martin's ace rate could increase against a less experienced clay-court opponent.
- Beckley's first-serve points won on clay is 69.1%, suggesting he can also produce aces.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 5.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 3 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Andrej Martin

9W 6L

6-3 6-4—Tommy Luxa

7-6(0) 6-1#383Mathys Erhard

7-6(3) 6-3#393Marat Sharipov (RUS)

6-3 6-7(5) 6-4—Alexander Wagner

7-5 3-6 7-5#520Khumoun Sultanov

6-4 6-4—Oskari Paldanius

6-7(4) 6-3 6-1—Florian Zimmer

6-1 6-3#426Henry Bernet

6-1 6-7(6) 6-2—Samuel Zannoni

6-1 1-0 ret.#571Lorenzo Angelini

6-4 2-6 7-5#597Lorenzo Bocchi

6-3 6-1—Ivan Biletic

6-4 6-2—Vito Antonio Darderi

6-4 2-6 7-5—Adrien Burdet

6-4 7-6(5)#340Petr Brunclik

Alec Beckley

11W 4L

6-3 7-5—Jakub Kusy

3-6 7-5 6-4—Vincent Dullinger

6-1 3-6 6-3—Tom Sickenberger

6-3 6-4#644Tuncay Duran

6-3 6-3#477Dominik Palan

6-2 6-3—Thando Longwe-Smit

6-4 6-4#851Alexander Zgirovsky

6-4 6-2#229Stefano Napolitano

3-6 6-1 6-4#507Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine

6-3 6-7(4) 6-2—Thando Longwe-Smit

3-6 6-3 6-2—Ty Host

4-1 ret.#803Cooper Williams

6-1 4-6 7-6(6)#507Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine

5-7 6-4 6-3—Allan Gatoto

6-3 1-6 6-1—Thando Longwe-Smit

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

AMAndrej MartinMartin

Last 15

2–7

9 core stats · 0 even

Alec BeckleyBeckleyAB

Alec Beckley carries the stronger recent form — Andrej Martin's route runs through serve.

Serve · 1–4

1st Serve In60.8%+4.3pp65.1%

1st Serve Won65.7%+3.5pp69.2%

2nd Serve Won48.4%+2.2pp50.6%

Aces / Match3.2+1.51.7

Double Faults / Match3.71.0 fewer2.7

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won43.9%+1.7pp42.2%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted41.3%+1.9pp43.2%

Break Pts Saved55.7%+9.2pp64.9%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won51.3%+1.2pp52.5%

Serve · 1–4

60.8%1st Serve In+4.3pp65.1%

65.7%1st Serve Won+3.5pp69.2%

48.4%2nd Serve Won+2.2pp50.6%

3.2Aces / Match+1.51.7

3.7Double Faults / Match1.0 fewer2.7

Return · 1–0

43.9%Return Pts Won+1.7pp42.2%

Pressure · 0–2

41.3%Break Pts Converted+1.9pp43.2%

55.7%Break Pts Saved+9.2pp64.9%

Points · 0–1

51.3%Total Pts Won+1.2pp52.5%

Andrej Martin #404Slovakia2Alec Beckley #5571

Player Profiles

Andrej Martin

Alec Beckley

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 5.5

Andrej Martin 2-1

Over 22.5

Andrej Martin

Andrej Martin

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 1 landed

Games3 of 4 landed

Sets1 of 1 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

Alec Beckley +3.5 @ 1.60

Under 2.5 sets @ 1.55

Andrej Martin

Alec Beckley

Stat Battle