Tiago Pereira #306Portugal11 – 2Andrej Martin #425Slovakia2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50

The read

Andrej Martin's extensive clay-court pedigree and superior recent form on the surface give him a clear edge over Tiago Pereira, who has less clay experience and inconsistent results.

• Martin has a career clay win percentage of 58.2% (516 wins) vs Pereira's 35 clay wins in his career.
• In 2026, Martin is 14-7 on clay; Pereira is 8-7 on clay.
• Martin's recent form on clay includes wins over higher-ranked opponents (e.g., Michalski #296, Dutra Da Silva #415) in the last 10 days.
• Pereira's last 5 matches include a loss to #702 Vukadin and a win over unranked Wazny, indicating inconsistent form.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Given both players' recent match lengths and similar break point stats, a competitive match with over 21.5 total games is likely, especially with Martin's propensity for three-setters.

• Martin's last three matches have averaged 24.3 games per match.
• Pereira's last five matches have averaged 22.4 games per match.
• Both players have break point conversion rates around 44%, indicating potential for multiple breaks and extended games.
• Martin's recent three-setters suggest he is involved in tight, lengthy matches.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

With both players holding serve at a decent clip and Martin's recent tight first sets, the opener is likely to exceed 9.5 games.

• In 4 of Martin's last 5 matches, the first set has had at least 9 games.
• Pereira's last 5 first sets have averaged 9.2 games.
• Both players have first-serve win percentages around 66%, suggesting holds are common.
• Martin's first-set tiebreak in his last match indicates tight opening sets.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.10

The read

With both players frequently involved in three-set matches and no dominant server, a deciding set is a strong possibility.

• Martin has played three-setters in 2 of his last 3 matches.
• Pereira has played three-setters in 3 of his last 5 matches.
• Martin's deciding set win rate is 56%, indicating he often goes the distance.
• Both players have similar break point save rates (around 58%), which can prolong sets.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Given the low ace rates of both players and the clay surface, total aces are likely to stay under 7.5.

• Pereira's ace rate is 3.7% and Martin's is 3.5%, both below average.
• In their recent matches, neither player has averaged more than 3 aces per match.
• Clay courts typically reduce ace counts due to slower surface.
• Both players rely more on rallying than big serving.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

With Martin's elevated double fault rate and both players' moderate serving, total double faults are likely to exceed 5.5.

• Martin's double fault rate is 4.4%, higher than Pereira's 2.5%.
• In recent matches, Martin has averaged around 3 double faults per match.
• Pereira has averaged around 2 double faults per match in his last five.
• Combined, they project to around 5-6 double faults per match.