Francesca Jones #104United Kingdom22 – 0Joanna Garland #203Taiwan0

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.44

The read

Jones's dominant recent form and superior return game give her a clear edge over Garland, whose last15 return and break point conversion are weak.

• Jones last15 overall record 14-1 (93.3%), Garland 6-9 (40%)
• Jones last15 total points won 56.3% vs Garland 48.6%
• Jones last15 return points won 51.5% vs Garland 36.5%
• Jones 2026 hard court record 5-5, Garland 8-4 but Jones has won both hard matches this week

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.53

The read

Jones's strong recent starts and Garland's tendency to drop the first set make Jones the likely set 1 winner.

• Jones last15 first set win conversion 88% career, Garland 94% career but recent form poor
• Jones won first set in both US Open qualifying matches this week
• Garland lost first set in 3 of last 5 matches

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Garland's higher ace rate and the potential for a longer match push the total aces over 5.5.

• Jones last15 aces per match 1.4, Garland 3.4
• Garland's hard court aces per match 1.8 in last15
• Combined average aces per match ~4.8, but Garland's serve can produce more

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both players average over 3 double faults per match, making over 7.5 total double faults likely.

• Jones last15 double faults per match 3.4, Garland 4.6
• Combined average double faults per match ~8.0
• Garland's hard court double faults per match 3.8 in last15