United KingdomRoehampton - Great BritainFinished

Predictions graded

Johannus Monday #312United Kingdom0Michele Ribecai #265Italy2

Sets 3-6 · 4-6Thu 27 Aug 2026, 11:10 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalHard

Predictions1–614%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMichele Ribecai · 47 places

Johannus Monday

United Kingdom

British left-hander who reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 212 in October 2025. The targeted search did not identify a current injury, withdrawal, or return-from-absence signal.

Current ranking: #312
Peak ranking: #212 · 2025
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 198 cm

Michele Ribecai

Italy

Ribecai reached a career-high No. 259 on June 22, 2026 and remains close to that mark. No reliable preferred-surface designation was found.

Current ranking: #265
Peak ranking: #259 · 2026
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 173 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 26 Aug 2026, 22:12 · Europe/Bucharest

Monday holds a slight edge due to his stronger recent overall form and superior serve, but Ribecai's strong hard-court form in a small sample makes this competitive.

The match is likely to feature over 22.5 games and over 8.5 aces, with Ribecai +3.5 games offering value.

Context

Monday beat Lui Maxted 1-6, 6-3, 7-6 in the round of 16 on 26 August.
- Ribecai beat Anton Matusevich 6-7, 6-3, 6-3 on the same day.
- Both matches went over 25 games, adding physical strain before this quarter-final.
Ribecai's last 15 hard-court record is 4-1 (80%), but only 5 matches tracked.
- His career hard-court win percentage is 34.4% (52 wins in 151 matches).
- Monday's career hard-court win percentage is 60.6% (77 wins in 127 matches).
Monday's last 15 hard-court aces per match: 7.7 (92 aces in 12 matches).
- Ribecai's last 15 hard-court aces per match: 3.2 (16 aces in 5 matches).
- Monday's first-serve points won on hard: 73% vs Ribecai's 67.8%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

Johannus Monday

1.60fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 62.5%

0.0ppshort

Monday's larger recent hard-court sample and stronger overall last-15 record give him a slight edge, though Ribecai's small-sample hard form is strong.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Monday's larger recent hard-court sample and stronger overall last-15 record give him a slight edge, though Ribecai's small-sample hard form is strong.
- Monday last15 overall record 10-5 (66.7%) vs Ribecai 7-8 (46.7%)
- Monday last15 hard record 8-4 (66.7%) vs Ribecai 4-1 (80%) but only 5 matches
- Monday career hard win% 77/127 (60.6%) vs Ribecai 52/151 (34.4%)
- Monday ranking 311 vs Ribecai 276
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostJohannus MondayEstimated chance58%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have been involved in high-game matches recently, and their last-15 averages both exceed 23 games.
- Monday last15 average 23.6 games per match (354 games / 15)
- Ribecai last15 average 23.3 games per match (350 games / 15)
- Both players' last match went three sets with 29 and 31 games respectively
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 22.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Ribecai's competitive hard-court numbers and the close expected match make a +3.5 game handicap likely to cover.
- Monday last15 games won 55.4% vs Ribecai 51.4%
- Monday last15 hard games won 54.9% vs Ribecai 60.2%
- Ribecai's hard-court sample is small but strong
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonMichele Ribecai +3.5Estimated chance60%

Sets0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Monday's superior first-serve effectiveness and high first-set conversion rate support a slight edge in the opening set.
- Monday first-set win conversion career 91%
- Monday last15 first serve points won 73% vs Ribecai 64.6%
- Monday last15 hard first serve points won 73%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostJohannus MondayEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have a high frequency of three-set matches in their recent windows, supporting a deciding set.
- Monday last15 3-set matches: 8 of 15 (53%)
- Ribecai last15 3-set matches: 7 of 15 (47%)
- Both players' most recent match went three sets
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Monday's high ace rate alone nearly reaches the line, and Ribecai adds a few more, making over 8.5 likely.
- Monday last15 aces per match 7.0 overall, 7.7 on hard
- Ribecai last15 aces per match 2.0 overall, 3.2 on hard
- Combined expected aces ~9-10 based on recent averages
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined double fault averages are just above the line, though variance is high.
- Monday last15 double faults per match 3.8
- Ribecai last15 double faults per match 2.9
- Combined expected ~6.7 double faults
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance55%

Prediction history

Johannus Monday has been highly reliable when projected to win

Johannus Monday has fulfilled 4 of 5 recent win predictions, a strong 80% success rate. The average estimated probability in those matches was 68.8%, with an expected 3.4 wins, so he outperformed expectation. The only miss came against Aidan Mayo at 65% probability, while all wins occurred at 58% or higher.

Recent evidence for Johannus Monday5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

9 Jul·Nottingham - Great Britain

#313Johannus Monday2-0#697Arda Azkara

BetBugsJohannus Monday to win·78%

Matched

9 Jul 2026

Nottingham - Great Britain

#313Johannus Monday2-0#697Arda Azkara

Johannus Monday to win

78%probability

Johannus Monday won

Matched

29 May·Little Rock - USA

#290Johannus Monday0-2#581Aidan Mayo

BetBugsJohannus Monday to win·65%

Missed

29 May 2026

Little Rock - USA

#290Johannus Monday0-2#581Aidan Mayo

Johannus Monday to win

65%probability

Aidan Mayo won

Missed

26 May·Little Rock - USA

#290Johannus Monday2-0#343Braden Shick

BetBugsJohannus Monday to win·58%

Matched

26 May 2026

Little Rock - USA

#290Johannus Monday2-0#343Braden Shick

Johannus Monday to win

58%probability

Johannus Monday won

Matched

25 May·Little Rock - USA

#286Johannus Monday2-1#477Christian Langmo

BetBugsJohannus Monday to win·65%

Matched

25 May 2026

Little Rock - USA

#286Johannus Monday2-1#477Christian Langmo

Johannus Monday to win

65%probability

Johannus Monday won

Matched

24 May·Little Rock - USA

#286Johannus Monday2-1#605Adhithya Ganesan

BetBugsJohannus Monday to win·78%

Matched

24 May 2026

Little Rock - USA

#286Johannus Monday2-1#605Adhithya Ganesan

Johannus Monday to win

78%probability

Johannus Monday won

Matched

Previous match context available

Johannus Monday

10W 5L

1-6 6-3 7-6(2)#362Lui Maxted 6-7(0) 6-4 6-1#592Iliyan Radulov

6-4 3-6 7-5#592Iliyan Radulov

6-1 3-6 6-3#864Patrick Maloney

7-5 6-1—William Nolan

2-6 6-3 6-4#422Ozan Baris

6-3 6-4#681Andreja Petrovic

6-1 6-4#851Keaton Hance

6-3 6-2—Jonah Braswell

6-4 7-6(4)#117Shintaro Mochizuki

4-6 6-3 6-3#388Yuta Shimizu

5-7 6-2 7-5#395Justin Boulais

6-4 7-5#226Henry Searle

6-3 6-2#817Arda Azkara

6-3 6-3#883Matthew Summers

Michele Ribecai

7W 8L

6-7(3) 6-3 6-3#330Anton Matusevich 6-1 6-2—Mark Ceban

4-6 7-5 6-2#187Andrea Guerrieri

7-5 6-4#636Tomasz Berkieta

6-2 6-1#592Iliyan Radulov

3-6 7-5 6-2#259Juan Bautista Torres

4-6 6-1 6-3#140Hugo Dellien

6-1 6-2#321Gonzalo Villanueva

4-6 7-5 6-4#249Matej Dodig

6-3 6-3#267Franco Roncadelli

7-6(4) 6-4#743Daniele Rapagnetta

7-5 6-7(5) 6-1#490Niels Mcdonald

2-6 6-1 6-4#82Facundo Diaz Acosta

6-4 6-0#278Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva

7-6(5) 6-2#222Genaro Alberto Olivieri

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

JMJohannus MondayMonday

Last 15

5–4

9 core stats · 0 even

Michele RibecaiRibecaiMR

Johannus Monday carries the stronger recent form — Michele Ribecai's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In63.9%+5.3pp58.6%

1st Serve Won73.0%+8.4pp64.6%

2nd Serve Won54.4%+4.9pp49.5%

Aces / Match7.0+5.02.0

Double Faults / Match3.80.9 fewer2.9

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won38.3%+2.5pp40.8%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted40.7%+2.6pp43.3%

Break Pts Saved63.9%+1.5pp65.4%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won52.3%+2.5pp49.8%

Serve · 4–1

63.9%1st Serve In+5.3pp58.6%

73.0%1st Serve Won+8.4pp64.6%

54.4%2nd Serve Won+4.9pp49.5%

7.0Aces / Match+5.02.0

3.8Double Faults / Match0.9 fewer2.9

Return · 0–1

38.3%Return Pts Won+2.5pp40.8%

Pressure · 0–2

40.7%Break Pts Converted+2.6pp43.3%

63.9%Break Pts Saved+1.5pp65.4%

Points · 1–0

52.3%Total Pts Won+2.5pp49.8%