United KingdomRoehampton - Great BritainFinished

Predictions graded

Mark CebanUnited Kingdom0Michele Ribecai #265Italy2

Sets 1-6 · 2-6Mon 24 Aug 2026, 15:10 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions0–60%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Mark Ceban

United Kingdom

British player, age 17. He received a Wimbledon qualifying wild card in June 2026; reliable public sources in the requested search did not establish a current ranking, career-high ranking, height, or stated preferred surface.

Current ranking: —
Peak ranking: —
Current age: 17
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Michele Ribecai

Italy

Ribecai reached a career-high No. 259 on June 22, 2026 and remains close to that mark. No reliable preferred-surface designation was found.

Current ranking: #265
Peak ranking: #259 · 2026
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 173 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Aug 2026, 15:46 · Europe/Bucharest

Mark Ceban holds a significant edge over Michele Ribecai due to his superior recent hard-court form (5-2 in last 7) and Ribecai's poor run (4 losses in last 5, all on clay).

Ceban is a strong value bet at 2.75 odds, with an estimated 55% win probability versus the implied 36.4%. The match is likely to be competitive, with a lean to over 21.5 total games and Ceban taking the first set.

Context

Ceban's last15 hard-court record is 7-4 (63.6%) with 55.3% games won.
- He won 5 of his last 7 hard-court matches, including qualifying wins over Radulov and Shepp.
- His most recent match on 20 August was a 6-4 6-3 loss to Matusevich, ranked 357.
Ribecai's last15 overall record is 6-9 (40%).
- He lost 4 of his last 5 matches, all on clay, with losses to Guerrieri, Torres, Dellien, and Villanueva.
- His last match was on August 7, a three-set loss to Guerrieri on hard court.
- His hard-court sample is tiny: 2-1 in three tracked matches.
Ribecai's double faults per match on hard courts: 3.7 (11 double faults in 3 matches).
- Ceban's double faults per match on hard courts: 1.7 (17 double faults in 10 matches).
- Ribecai's first serve percentage on hard courts is 57.3%, lower than Ceban's 67%.
Official ITF M25 Roehampton ran 3-9 August 2026, while ATP Roehampton 1 Challenger ran 17-22 August 2026.
- No official draw or order-of-play entry for Ceban vs Ribecai on 24 August was retrieved.
- The match is listed as Roehampton 2 Challenger, but the tournament ID 21940 may not correspond to a confirmed event.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.75
The read
Ceban's superior recent hard-court form and home tournament context give him a slight edge, while Ribecai's recent slump and lack of match practice on hard courts reduce his chances.
- Ceban last15 overall record 7-8 (46.7%), but on hard 7-4 (63.6%) with 55.3% games won.
- Ribecai last15 overall record 6-9 (40%), on hard 2-1 (66.7%) but only 3 matches tracked.
- Ceban has won 5 of his last 7 hard-court matches, including wins over Radulov and Shepp in Roehampton qualifying.
- Ribecai's recent form is poor: 4 losses in his last 5 matches, all on clay, and he has not played since Aug 7.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostMark CebanEstimated chance55%

Games0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The match is expected to be close, and both players' recent matches often exceed 21.5 total games, making the over a reasonable lean.
- Ceban's last15 hard-court matches average 21.9 total games per match.
- Ribecai's last15 overall matches average 23.5 total games per match.
- Both players have similar games won percentages around 50%, suggesting competitive sets.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance52%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Ceban's strong first-set record on hard courts and Ribecai's recent slow starts support Ceban taking the opener.
- Ceban has won the first set in 5 of his last 7 hard-court matches.
- Ceban's first-set win conversion career is 80%.
- Ribecai lost the first set in 4 of his last 5 matches (all surfaces).
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostMark CebanEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Ribecai's high double fault rate on hard courts, combined with Ceban's moderate rate, makes over 4.5 double faults a reasonable expectation.
- Ceban averages 1.7 double faults per match on hard courts in last15.
- Ribecai averages 3.7 double faults per match on hard courts in last15.
- Combined average double faults per match on hard courts is approximately 5.4.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance50%

Mark Ceban

7W 8L

6-4 6-3#357Anton Matusevich

6-1 7-6(5)#622Iliyan Radulov

6-1 6-3#498Anton Shepp

7-5 4-6 6-1#403Lui Maxted

6-4 7-6(3)#488George Loffhagen

6-3 6-3#891Charlie Robertson

7-6(5) 6-0—Luke Hooper

6-3 6-2—Henry Jefferson

1-6 6-1 6-2#1391Ronald Hohmann

6-1 7-5—Luke Hooper

6-2 6-4#190Roberto Carballes Baena

7-5 7-5#158Zhizhen Zhang

6-1 6-3#227Oliver Crawford

4-6 6-3 6-4—Aaron Funk

6-4 6-1—Nicholas Godsick

Michele Ribecai

6W 9L

4-6 7-5 6-2#189Andrea Guerrieri

7-5 6-4#541Tomasz Berkieta

6-2 6-1#622Iliyan Radulov

3-6 7-5 6-2#271Juan Bautista Torres

4-6 6-1 6-3#141Hugo Dellien

6-1 6-2#322Gonzalo Villanueva

4-6 7-5 6-4#251Matej Dodig

6-3 6-3#237Franco Roncadelli

7-6(4) 6-4#740Daniele Rapagnetta

7-5 6-7(5) 6-1#531Niels Mcdonald

2-6 6-1 6-4#87Facundo Diaz Acosta

6-4 6-0#263Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva

7-6(5) 6-2#225Genaro Alberto Olivieri

6-4 6-1#208Henri Squire

3-6 7-6(5) 6-3#265Franco Agamenone

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MCMark CebanCeban

Last 15

4–3

9 core stats · 2 even

Michele RibecaiRibecaiMR

Mark Ceban carries the stronger recent form — Michele Ribecai's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

1st Serve In14/15 · 15/1566.4%+8.6pp57.8%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/1563.5%—63.7%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/1549.8%+1.2pp51.0%

Aces / Match14/15 · 15/152.5+0.91.6

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/152.11.0 fewer3.1

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/1538.5%+2.2pp40.7%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/1550.6%+6.7pp43.9%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/1552.9%+11.6pp64.5%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/1549.1%—49.8%

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

66.4%1st Serve In14/15 · 15/15+8.6pp57.8%

63.5%1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/15—63.7%

49.8%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+1.2pp51.0%

2.5Aces / Match14/15 · 15/15+0.91.6

2.1Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/151.0 fewer3.1

Return · 0–1

38.5%Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+2.2pp40.7%

Pressure · 1–1

50.6%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/15+6.7pp43.9%

52.9%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/15+11.6pp64.5%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

49.1%Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/15—49.8%