United KingdomRoehampton - Great BritainFinished

Predictions graded

Anton Matusevich #357United Kingdom1Michele Ribecai #265Italy2

Sets 7-6 · 3-6 · 3-6Wed 26 Aug 2026, 10:10 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions5–271%

Edges2–167%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMichele Ribecai · 92 places

Anton Matusevich

United Kingdom

British right-hander, born 30 May 2001. Reliable sources found confirm his height and playing hand, but did not establish a dated career-high ranking or stated preferred surface.

Current ranking: #357
Peak ranking: #342
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Michele Ribecai

Italy

Ribecai reached a career-high No. 259 on June 22, 2026 and remains close to that mark. No reliable preferred-surface designation was found.

Current ranking: #265
Peak ranking: #259 · 2026
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 173 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Aug 2026, 22:16 · Europe/Bucharest

Matusevich's superior recent form and hard-court consistency make him the likely winner, but Ribecai's higher ranking and competitiveness keep it close.

Best value lies in Ribecai +3.5 games and over 21.5 total games, while the match winner market offers little edge.

Context

Matusevich reached the semi-final at Roehampton 1, playing four matches from 18-21 August.
- His last match was a three-set loss to Oliver Tarvet on 21 August, just five days before this match.
- Recent workload can affect early intensity and late-match stamina, especially in back-to-back Challenger events.
Matusevich last15 hard record: 7-2 (77.8%) in 9 matches.
- Ribecai last15 hard record: 3-1 (75%) in only 4 matches.
- Matusevich's larger sample and recent wins over higher-ranked opponents (e.g., Elmer Moller, rank 170) support his surface edge.
Matusevich last15 first-serve points won: 75.2% (459/610).
- Ribecai last15 first-serve points won: 64.5% (434/673).
- Matusevich career first-set win conversion: 85%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

Anton Matusevich

1.60fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 62.5%

0.0ppshort

Matusevich's superior recent form and hard-court consistency give him the edge, though Ribecai's higher ranking and small-sample hard stats keep confidence medium.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Anton Matusevich

1.60fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 62.5%

0.0ppshort

Matusevich's superior first-serve points won and first-set conversion rate support him taking the opening set.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Matusevich's superior recent form and hard-court consistency give him the edge, though Ribecai's higher ranking and small-sample hard stats keep confidence medium.
- Matusevich last15 overall record 11-4 (73.3%) vs Ribecai 7-8 (46.7%)
- Matusevich last15 hard record 7-2 (77.8%) vs Ribecai 3-1 (75%) but only 4 matches
- Matusevich ranking 330 vs Ribecai 276, but Matusevich has stronger recent form and surface fit
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostAnton MatusevichEstimated chance62%

Games3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches average over 22 games, suggesting a competitive match likely to exceed 21.5 total games.
- Matusevich last15 average games per match 22.2 (333 games / 15 matches)
- Ribecai last15 average games per match 22.4 (336 games / 15 matches)
- Both players have similar games won percentages around 52-57%
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Ribecai's competitiveness and higher ranking make him likely to stay within 3.5 games of Matusevich.
- Matusevich last15 games won percentage 57.4% vs Ribecai 51.8%
- Ribecai's hard-court games won percentage 61% in 4 matches
- Ribecai's ranking is higher (276 vs 330)
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonMichele Ribecai +3.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Average set length near 9.5 games and competitive matchup suggest the first set could go over 9.5 games.
- Matusevich last15 average set games 9.5 (333 games / 35 sets)
- Ribecai last15 average set games 9.3 (336 games / 36 sets)
- Both players have competitive first sets in recent matches
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Matusevich's stronger serve and first-set conversion rate support him taking the opening set.
- Matusevich first set win conversion career 85% vs Ribecai 84%
- Matusevich last15 first serve points won 75.2% vs Ribecai 64.5%
- Matusevich last15 hard first serve points won 73.8%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonAnton MatusevichEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Matusevich's ace production alone nearly covers the line, and Ribecai adds a few, making over 6.5 likely in a competitive match.
- Matusevich last15 aces per match 4.2
- Ribecai last15 aces per match 1.9
- Combined average 6.1 aces per match, but Matusevich's hard-court ace rate is 4.3
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance55%

Previous match context available

Anton Matusevich

11W 4L

6-3 3-6 6-2#427Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine

6-2 2-6 6-2#329Oliver Tarvet

6-4 6-3—Mark Ceban

6-1 6-3#170Elmer Moller

6-4 7-5#388Yuta Shimizu

6-4 7-6(11)#329Oliver Tarvet

6-3 6-4#466Emile Hudd

6-3 3-6 6-3#900Sebastian Dominko

7-6(4) 6-3#818Conor Gannon

6-7(5) 6-4 6-3#315Max Hans Rehberg

7-5 6-4#281Alvaro Guillen Meza

6-0 6-3#289Cezar Cretu

6-3 6-2#442Luca Staeheli

6-2 6-4—Nikola Djosic

2-6 6-4 7-6(4)#378Max Wiskandt

Michele Ribecai

7W 8L

6-1 6-2—Mark Ceban

4-6 7-5 6-2#187Andrea Guerrieri

7-5 6-4#636Tomasz Berkieta

6-2 6-1#592Iliyan Radulov

3-6 7-5 6-2#259Juan Bautista Torres

4-6 6-1 6-3#140Hugo Dellien

6-1 6-2#321Gonzalo Villanueva

4-6 7-5 6-4#249Matej Dodig

6-3 6-3#267Franco Roncadelli

7-6(4) 6-4#743Daniele Rapagnetta

7-5 6-7(5) 6-1#490Niels Mcdonald

2-6 6-1 6-4#82Facundo Diaz Acosta

6-4 6-0#278Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva

7-6(5) 6-2#222Genaro Alberto Olivieri

6-4 6-1#214Henri Squire

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

AMAnton MatusevichMatusevich

Last 15

6–3

9 core stats · 0 even

Michele RibecaiRibecaiMR

Anton Matusevich carries the stronger recent form — Michele Ribecai's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In57.9%+0.8pp58.7%

1st Serve Won75.2%+10.7pp64.5%

2nd Serve Won53.7%+2.6pp51.1%

Aces / Match4.2+2.31.9

Double Faults / Match2.40.6 fewer3.0

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won39.3%+1.6pp40.9%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted51.0%+6.4pp44.6%

Break Pts Saved64.9%+1.8pp66.7%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won53.0%+2.8pp50.2%

Serve · 4–1

57.9%1st Serve In+0.8pp58.7%

75.2%1st Serve Won+10.7pp64.5%

53.7%2nd Serve Won+2.6pp51.1%

4.2Aces / Match+2.31.9

2.4Double Faults / Match0.6 fewer3.0

Return · 0–1

39.3%Return Pts Won+1.6pp40.9%

Pressure · 1–1

51.0%Break Pts Converted+6.4pp44.6%

64.9%Break Pts Saved+1.8pp66.7%

Points · 1–0

53.0%Total Pts Won+2.8pp50.2%