United KingdomRoehampton - Great BritainFinished

Predictions graded

Johannus Monday #312United Kingdom2Lui Maxted #403United Kingdom1

Sets 1-6 · 6-3 · 7-6Wed 26 Aug 2026, 13:10 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions4–267%

Edges2–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageJohannus Monday · 91 places

Johannus Monday

United Kingdom

British left-hander who reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 212 in October 2025. The targeted search did not identify a current injury, withdrawal, or return-from-absence signal.

Current ranking: #312
Peak ranking: #212 · 2025
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 198 cm

Lui Maxted

United Kingdom

The British player reached a reported career-high singles ranking of No. 392 in March 2026. No reliable preferred-surface profile was found in the specified searches.

Current ranking: #403
Peak ranking: #392 · 2026
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Aug 2026, 03:29 · Europe/Bucharest

Monday leads H2H 2-0 and ranks higher, but Maxted's recent form and return game make this closer than odds suggest.

Avoid backing Monday at 1.33; instead, consider over 21.5 total games or over 2.5 sets as value angles.

Context

Maxted played at Roehampton on 20-21 August, including a semi-final loss to Lucas Poullain on 21 August.
- He won three matches at the same venue before that loss, showing he is comfortable in these conditions.
- Monday has not played since 24 August, so Maxted has more recent match rhythm.
Maxted's last-15 return points won is 40.4%, compared to Monday's 38.3%.
- Maxted converts 45% of break points, while Monday converts 38.7%.
- Maxted's break point save rate is 65.7%, slightly lower than Monday's 67.1%, but his return edge is clear.
Monday averages 6.7 aces per match in his last 15, while Maxted averages 3.0.
- Monday wins 71.5% of first-serve points, compared to Maxted's 68.9%.
- Monday's height (198cm) and lefty serve create a difficult angle for right-handed returners like Maxted.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Johannus Monday

1.33fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 75.2%

0.0ppshort

Monday's head-to-head dominance and ranking edge support him, but the odds heavily overprice him relative to the model estimate.

Total SetswonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.72fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 58.1%

0.0ppshort

Both players show high deciding set rates and similar set win percentages, making a three-setter likely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.33
The read
Monday's head-to-head dominance and slightly higher ranking give him the edge, though Maxted's recent form is comparable.
- H2H: Monday leads 2-0, both wins in straight sets (2026 and 2024).
- Monday last15 overall record 9-6 (60%), Maxted 10-5 (66.7%) but Maxted's recent loss to Poullain.
- Monday career win% 63.3%, Maxted 62.9%.
- Monday ranking 311 vs Maxted 362.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonJohannus MondayEstimated chance58%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches average over 22 games, and their competitive stats suggest a close contest.
- Monday last15 average 22.9 games per match, Maxted 23.8.
- Both players have high deciding set rates (Monday 58%, Maxted 63%).
- H2H matches: 23 and 20 games, but recent form suggests longer matches.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent first sets have trended toward 10 games, indicating a tight opening set.
- Monday last15 first set average 9.7 games, Maxted 9.9.
- Both players have similar first serve points won percentages.
- H2H first sets: 10 and 10 games.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.72
The read
Both players show high deciding set rates and similar set win percentages, making a three-setter likely.
- Monday last15 deciding set rate 58%, Maxted 63%.
- Monday last15 sets won 58.3%, Maxted 58.3%.
- Both players have multiple three-set matches in recent form.
BetBugs · Total SetswonOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Monday's strong first-set conversion and H2H pattern support him taking the opener.
- Monday first set win conversion 91% career, Maxted 92%.
- Monday last15 first serve points won 71.5%, Maxted 68.9%.
- H2H Monday won first set in both meetings.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostJohannus MondayEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined ace rates suggest around 10 aces, with Monday's serve being a key weapon.
- Monday last15 aces per match 6.7, Maxted 3.0.
- H2H total aces: Monday 21, Maxted 28 in 2 matches (avg 24.5 total).
- Monday's height 198cm and lefty serve advantage.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Combined double fault rates suggest around 7 double faults, making over 6.5 a coin flip.
- Monday last15 double faults per match 3.8, Maxted 2.9.
- H2H total double faults: Monday 8, Maxted 6 in 2 matches (avg 7 total).
- Both players have moderate double fault rates.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

The favorite is overpriced based on recent form and head-to-head, making this a trap for bettors.

Head-to-Head

2-0 (2 meetings)

W4-6 7-6(5) 6-4Johannus Monday#311vLui Maxted#362Jan 5, 2026

W6-4 6-4Johannus Monday#311vLui Maxted#362Jul 18, 2024

2 total meetings

Previous match context available

Johannus Monday

9W 6L

6-7(0) 6-4 6-1#592Iliyan Radulov

6-4 3-6 7-5#592Iliyan Radulov

6-1 3-6 6-3#864Patrick Maloney

7-5 6-1—William Nolan

2-6 6-3 6-4#422Ozan Baris

6-3 6-4#681Andreja Petrovic

6-1 6-4#851Keaton Hance

6-3 6-2—Jonah Braswell

6-4 7-6(4)#117Shintaro Mochizuki

4-6 6-3 6-3#388Yuta Shimizu

5-7 6-2 7-5#395Justin Boulais

6-4 7-5#226Henry Searle

6-3 6-2#817Arda Azkara

6-3 6-3#883Matthew Summers

7-5 6-3#180Tristan Schoolkate

Lui Maxted

10W 5L

6-3 6-3#493Anton Shepp 6-3 6-2#341Lucas Poullain

7-5 6-4#494Adrian Boitan

6-4 4-6 7-5#769Patrick Brady

7-5 7-6(1)#287Matteo Martineau

6-1 7-5#258Charles Broom

7-5 4-6 6-1—Mark Ceban

6-2 6-7(4) 6-2#874Marcus Walters

5-7 6-2 6-3—Rhys Lawlor

6-3 3-6 7-6(3)—Billy Blaydes

7-5 6-4—Clement Lemire

3-6 7-5 6-1—Louis Larue

7-6(7) 6-2#779Benjamin Pietri

6-3 6-4#535Ivan Ivanov

6-3 6-1#353Antoine Ghibaudo

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

JMJohannus MondayMonday

Last 15

4–4

9 core stats · 1 even

Lui MaxtedMaxtedLM

Dead-even recent form — the edges are in serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In64.7%+3.3pp68.0%

1st Serve Won71.5%+2.6pp68.9%

2nd Serve Won52.9%+3.4pp49.5%

Aces / Match6.7+3.73.0

Double Faults / Match3.80.9 fewer2.9

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won38.3%+2.1pp40.4%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted38.7%+6.3pp45.0%

Break Pts Saved67.1%+1.4pp65.7%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won51.7%—51.5%

Serve · 3–2

64.7%1st Serve In+3.3pp68.0%

71.5%1st Serve Won+2.6pp68.9%

52.9%2nd Serve Won+3.4pp49.5%

6.7Aces / Match+3.73.0

3.8Double Faults / Match0.9 fewer2.9

Return · 0–1

38.3%Return Pts Won+2.1pp40.4%

Pressure · 1–1

38.7%Break Pts Converted+6.3pp45.0%

67.1%Break Pts Saved+1.4pp65.7%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

51.7%Total Pts Won—51.5%