United KingdomRoehampton - Great BritainFinished

Predictions graded

Anton Matusevich #357United Kingdom1Oliver Tarvet #380United Kingdom2

Sets 2-6 · 6-2 · 2-6Fri 21 Aug 2026, 10:00 Predictions gradedSemi-FinalHard

Predictions4–267%

Edges4–180%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAnton Matusevich · 23 places

Anton Matusevich

United Kingdom

British right-hander, born 30 May 2001. Reliable sources found confirm his height and playing hand, but did not establish a dated career-high ranking or stated preferred surface.

Current ranking: #357
Peak ranking: #342
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Oliver Tarvet

United Kingdom

British right-hander born 29 October 2003. ITF lists hard as his preferred surface and records his career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 324 on 16 February 2026.

Current ranking: #380
Peak ranking: #324 · 2026
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 21 Aug 2026, 03:02 · Europe/Bucharest

Tarvet won their recent Roehampton meeting 6-4, 7-6(11) and has superior hard-court form, but Matusevich is competitive.

The best betting value is Matusevich +3.5 games at 1.91 (edge 7.6 points), while Tarvet's match winner odds are too short.

Context

Tarvet won the only H2H match 6-4, 7-6(11) on hard court on 2026-08-08.
- The match was at the same Roehampton venue, so both players know the conditions.
- Tarvet hit 12 aces in that match, while Matusevich hit only 1.
Tarvet's last-15 hard-court record is 12-1 with 61.5% games won.
- Matusevich's last-15 hard-court record is 6-1 with 58.8% games won.
- Matusevich has won 6 of his last 7 hard-court matches.
Tarvet's return points won on hard in last 15 is 46.7% vs Matusevich's 41.7%.
- Both players have first-serve points won above 74% on hard in last 15.
- Tarvet's break point conversion on hard in last 15 is 40.8%, while Matusevich's is 53.3%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Tarvet's superior recent hard-court form, return game, and direct H2H win give him a clear edge in this Bo3 semi-final.
- Tarvet is 12-1 on hard courts in 2026; Matusevich is 15-2 on hard in 2026 but 2-4 on grass.
- Tarvet won the only H2H meeting 6-4 7-6(11) on hard on 2026-08-08.
- Tarvet's last-15 hard-court record is 12-1 with 61.5% games won; Matusevich's last-15 hard-court record is 6-1 with 58.8% games won.
- Tarvet's return points won on hard in last 15 is 46.7% vs Matusevich's 41.7%.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonOliver TarvetEstimated chance62%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Matusevich's competitive hard-court form and the close H2H suggest he can stay within 3.5 games.
- H2H margin was 3 games (Tarvet won 13-10).
- Matusevich's last-15 hard-court games won percentage is 58.8%; Tarvet's is 61.5%.
- Matusevich has won 6 of his last 7 hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonAnton Matusevich +3.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Competitive serving and the recent H2H suggest a match that could exceed 21.5 games.
- H2H match had 23 games (6-4 7-6).
- Tarvet's last-15 hard-court matches average 20.4 games; Matusevich's average 21.1 games.
- Both players have strong serve stats: Tarvet 75.4% first-serve points won, Matusevich 74.3% on hard in last 15.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Strong serving from both players makes a tight first set likely, pushing total games over 9.5.
- H2H first set was 6-4 (10 games).
- Tarvet's last-15 hard-court first-set average is 9.2 games; Matusevich's is 9.4 games.
- Both players have first-serve points won above 74% on hard in last 15.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Tarvet's strong first-set record and recent H2H first-set win support him taking the opener.
- Tarvet won the first set 6-4 in the H2H meeting on 2026-08-08.
- Tarvet's first-set win conversion career is 93%; Matusevich's is 85%.
- Tarvet's last-15 hard-court first-serve points won is 75.4%; Matusevich's is 74.3%.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonOliver TarvetEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have moderate double-fault rates, making under 5.5 total double faults likely.
- Tarvet averages 2.5 double faults per match on hard in last 15; Matusevich averages 2.6.
- H2H: Tarvet had 1 double fault, Matusevich had 3.
- Both players have first-serve percentages around 57-60% on hard in last 15.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 5.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Tarvet's high ace rate and Matusevich's moderate ace output combine to make over 10.5 total aces plausible.
- Tarvet averages 5.8 aces per match on hard in last 15; Matusevich averages 4.9.
- H2H: Tarvet hit 12 aces, Matusevich 1 ace.
- Tarvet's overall last-15 aces per match is 6.4; Matusevich's is 4.5.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 10.5Estimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

0-1 (1 meetings)

L6-4 7-6(11)Anton Matusevich#357vOliver Tarvet#380Aug 8, 2026

1 total meetings

Previous match context available

Anton Matusevich

12W 3L

6-4 6-3—Mark Ceban 6-1 6-3#172Elmer Moller 6-4 7-5#393Yuta Shimizu

6-4 7-6(11)#380Oliver Tarvet

6-3 6-4#475Emile Hudd

6-3 3-6 6-3#900Sebastian Dominko

7-6(4) 6-3#824Conor Gannon

6-7(5) 6-4 6-3#342Max Hans Rehberg

7-5 6-4#283Alvaro Guillen Meza

6-0 6-3#266Cezar Cretu

6-3 6-2#529Luca Staeheli

6-2 6-4—Nikola Djosic

2-6 6-4 7-6(4)#377Max Wiskandt

7-6(6) 6-1#788Michael Agwi

7-6(4) 7-5#729Aryan Shah

Oliver Tarvet

13W 2L

6-4 5-7 6-1#289Charles Broom 6-2 5-7 6-4#281Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida 6-3 6-4#587John Echeverria

6-3 6-2#289Charles Broom

6-4 7-6(11)#357Anton Matusevich

6-2 3-6 6-1#507Alex Rybakov

7-6(2) 6-4#868Albert Pedrico Kravtsov

6-4 6-3#816Toby Martin

6-1 6-3#475Emile Hudd

6-1 6-1#1391Ronald Hohmann

6-1 2-0 ret.—Rahul Dhokia

6-3 6-1#900Sebastian Dominko

6-2 3-6 6-3—Benjamin Gusic Wan

7-6(4) 7-6(4) 4-6 7-5#28Arthur Rinderknech

6-4 6-2 7-5#157Stefanos Sakellaridis

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

AMAnton MatusevichMatusevich

Last 15

3–4

9 core stats · 2 even

Oliver TarvetTarvetOT

Oliver Tarvet carries the stronger recent form — Anton Matusevich's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 1–2 · 2 even

1st Serve In58.2%+1.1pp57.1%

1st Serve Won75.8%+0.9pp76.7%

2nd Serve Won53.6%—54.1%

Aces / Match4.5+1.96.4

Double Faults / Match2.5—2.6

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won40.2%+3.7pp43.9%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted49.0%+10.2pp38.8%

Break Pts Saved65.7%+10.1pp55.6%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won53.3%+1.2pp54.5%

Serve · 1–2 · 2 even

58.2%1st Serve In+1.1pp57.1%

75.8%1st Serve Won+0.9pp76.7%

53.6%2nd Serve Won—54.1%

4.5Aces / Match+1.96.4

2.5Double Faults / Match—2.6

Return · 0–1

40.2%Return Pts Won+3.7pp43.9%

Pressure · 2–0

49.0%Break Pts Converted+10.2pp38.8%

65.7%Break Pts Saved+10.1pp55.6%

Points · 0–1

53.3%Total Pts Won+1.2pp54.5%