United KingdomRoehampton - Great BritainFinished

Predictions graded

Yuta Shimizu #393Japan0Anton Matusevich #357United Kingdom2

Sets 4-6 · 5-7Tue 18 Aug 2026, 12:30 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions4–267%

Edges2–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAnton Matusevich · 36 places

Yuta Shimizu

Japan

Japanese left-hander who lists hard courts as his preferred surface. ITF records show a career-best ATP singles ranking of No. 181 on 24 February 2025.

Current ranking: #393
Peak ranking: #181 · 2025
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Left handed
Height: 163 cm

Anton Matusevich

United Kingdom

British right-hander, born 30 May 2001. Reliable sources found confirm his height and playing hand, but did not establish a dated career-high ranking or stated preferred surface.

Current ranking: #357
Peak ranking: #342
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 16 Aug 2026, 15:33 · Europe/Bucharest

Matusevich's superior recent hard-court form gives him a slight edge over Shimizu.

The best betting value lies in the over 22.5 total games and over 9.5 games in set 1. A tiebreak is also likely in what should be a closely contested match.

Context

Matusevich's last 15 hard-court record is 3-1 (75%), but the sample is only 4 matches.
- Shimizu's last 15 overall record is 7-8 (46.7%), all on hard courts.
- Matusevich has won 4 of his last 5 matches, all on hard courts.
- Shimizu has lost 3 of his last 5 matches, including a loss to 312th-ranked Johannus Monday.
Loss to Johannus Monday (rank 312) on 23 July.
- Loss to Justin Boulais (rank 398) on 15 July.
- Loss to Ryan Colby (rank 655) on 7 July.
- Win over Liam Broady (rank 201) on 21 July.
Shimizu first-serve points won: 69.7% in last 15 matches.
- Matusevich first-serve points won: 74.0% in last 15 matches.
- Shimizu aces per match: 4.1; Matusevich aces per match: 4.3.
- Shimizu has played 5 tiebreaks in his last 15 matches; Matusevich has played 4.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Matusevich's superior recent form and hard-court win rate give him the edge, supported by his stronger last-15 record and current momentum.
- Last 15 overall record: Matusevich 9-6 (60%) vs Shimizu 7-8 (46.7%)
- Last 15 hard-court record: Matusevich 3-1 (75%) vs Shimizu 7-8 (46.7%)
- Matusevich has won 4 of his last 5 matches, all on hard courts
- Shimizu has lost 3 of his last 5 matches
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAnton MatusevichEstimated chance58%

Games2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The combined recent match lengths and balanced serve/return profiles point to a match that extends beyond 22.5 games.
- Shimizu last 15 average total games per match: 25.5 (382 games / 15 matches)
- Matusevich last 15 average total games per match: 22.4 (336 games / 15 matches)
- Combined average total games: 23.9
- Both players have similar serve and return points won percentages, suggesting competitive sets
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 22.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Strong first-serve numbers from both players make a tight opening set likely, pushing the total over 9.5 games.
- Shimizu's last 15 first sets average 9.8 games
- Matusevich's last 15 first sets average 9.3 games
- Both players have first-serve points won around 70%, limiting early breaks
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance58%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Matusevich's recent hard-court starts have been strong, while Shimizu has been slow out of the blocks in recent losses.
- Matusevich first-set win conversion career: 84% vs Shimizu 86%
- Matusevich has won the first set in 3 of his last 4 hard-court matches
- Shimizu has lost the first set in 3 of his last 5 matches
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonAnton MatusevichEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined double fault averages exceed 5.5, and both players' moderate first-serve percentages increase the likelihood of double faults.
- Shimizu last 15 double faults per match: 3.2
- Matusevich last 15 double faults per match: 2.5
- Combined average double faults per match: 5.7
- Both players have first-serve percentages below 61%, indicating second-serve pressure
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The frequency of tiebreaks in both players' recent matches and their solid tiebreak records make at least one tiebreak likely.
- Shimizu has played 5 tiebreaks in his last 15 matches
- Matusevich has played 4 tiebreaks in his last 15 matches
- Both players have tiebreak win percentages above 54% career
- Recent hard-court matches for both players have featured multiple tiebreaks
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average over 4 aces per match, and the hard-court surface supports a total above 8.5 aces.
- Shimizu last 15 aces per match: 4.1
- Matusevich last 15 aces per match: 4.3
- Combined average aces per match: 8.4
- Hard court surface typically yields higher ace counts
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance52%

Yuta Shimizu

7W 8L

4-6 6-3 6-3#312Johannus Monday

6-2 7-5#201Liam Broady

7-5 6-1#398Justin Boulais

6-2 4-6 6-2#315Jay Dylan Hara Friend

6-2 6-4#655Ryan Colby

7-6(3) 7-6(5)#180Michael Mmoh

6-4 7-6(2)#383Trevor Svajda

7-6(4) 7-6(2)#636Dan Martin

4-6 7-6(5) 6-4#210Andre Ilagan

6-7(6) 7-6(6) 7-6(3)#291Murphy Cassone

7-5 7-5#124Dane Sweeny

4-6 7-6(4) 7-5#164Bernard Tomic

7-6(8) 7-6(5)#320Andres Martin

6-1 2-6 6-3#600Evan Zhu

6-3 6-0#90Sho Shimabukuro

Anton Matusevich

9W 6L

6-4 7-6(11)#380Oliver Tarvet

6-3 6-4#475Emile Hudd

6-3 3-6 6-3#900Sebastian Dominko

7-6(4) 6-3#824Conor Gannon

6-7(5) 6-4 6-3#342Max Hans Rehberg

7-5 6-4#283Alvaro Guillen Meza

6-0 6-3#266Cezar Cretu

6-3 6-2#529Luca Staeheli

6-2 6-4—Nikola Djosic

2-6 6-4 7-6(4)#377Max Wiskandt

7-6(6) 6-1#788Michael Agwi

7-6(4) 7-5#729Aryan Shah

6-2 6-2#326Calvin Hemery

7-6(6) 3-6 6-3#165Rei Sakamoto

6-3 6-3#85Arthur Gea

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

YSYuta ShimizuShimizu

Last 15

3–5

9 core stats · 1 even

Anton MatusevichMatusevichAM

Anton Matusevich carries the stronger recent form — Yuta Shimizu's route runs through serve.

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

1st Serve In60.8%+3.6pp57.2%

1st Serve Won69.7%+4.3pp74.0%

2nd Serve Won50.0%+2.0pp52.0%

Aces / Match4.1—4.3

Double Faults / Match3.20.7 fewer2.5

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won38.1%+0.9pp37.2%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted37.6%+2.8pp40.4%

Break Pts Saved63.6%+0.9pp62.7%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won50.0%+0.9pp50.9%

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

60.8%1st Serve In+3.6pp57.2%

69.7%1st Serve Won+4.3pp74.0%

50.0%2nd Serve Won+2.0pp52.0%

4.1Aces / Match—4.3

3.2Double Faults / Match0.7 fewer2.5

Return · 1–0

38.1%Return Pts Won+0.9pp37.2%

Pressure · 1–1

37.6%Break Pts Converted+2.8pp40.4%

63.6%Break Pts Saved+0.9pp62.7%

Points · 0–1

50.0%Total Pts Won+0.9pp50.9%