United KingdomRoehampton - Great BritainFinished

Predictions graded

Elmer Moller #1840Anton Matusevich #357United Kingdom2

Sets 1-6 · 3-6Wed 19 Aug 2026, 12:40 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions3–350%

Edges2–167%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageElmer Moller · 173 places

Elmer Moller

Danish right-hander who reached a career-high No. 102 in July 2025. Reliable current public material from the requested searches did not establish a preferred surface.

Current ranking: #184
Peak ranking: #102 · 2025
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Anton Matusevich

United Kingdom

British right-hander, born 30 May 2001. Reliable sources found confirm his height and playing hand, but did not establish a dated career-high ranking or stated preferred surface.

Current ranking: #357
Peak ranking: #342
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 18 Aug 2026, 22:20 · Europe/Bucharest

Matusevich's superior serve and recent form make him the favorite, with a 62% win probability and value on the moneyline at 1.80.

The match is likely to feature over 21.5 games and possibly a tiebreak, but avoid the 2-0 set betting due to Moller's resilience.

Context

Matusevich last 15 overall record 10-5 (66.7%), Moller 8-7 (53.3%).
- Matusevich first-serve points won 74.8% vs Moller 64.8%.
- Matusevich break points saved 63.6% vs Moller 56.2%.
Moller hard-court last 15: 1-0 record, only 1 match tracked.
- Matusevich hard-court last 15: 4-1 record, 5 matches tracked.
- Moller's hard-court stats show 76% first-serve points won but from a single match.
2022-10-20: Matusevich def. Moller 6-3 6-3 on indoor hard.
- Matusevich won 74% of first-serve points in that match.
- Moller's return points won was only 31% in that match.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Matusevich has stronger recent overall form and a much better serve profile on hard courts, giving him the edge in this Bo3 match.
- Anton Matusevich last 15 overall record 10-5 (66.7%), Elmer Moller 8-7 (53.3%)
- Matusevich hard-court last 5 record 4-1 (80%), Moller hard-court last 1 record 1-0 (100%)
- Matusevich last 15 first-serve points won 74.8%, Moller 64.8%
- Matusevich last 15 break points saved 63.6%, Moller 56.2%
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAnton MatusevichEstimated chance62%

Games0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have competitive return games and Matusevich's matches average over 22 games, suggesting a longer contest.
- Moller last 15 average 20.3 games per match, Matusevich 22.7
- Matusevich last 15 hard-court average 22.6 games per match
- Both players have similar return points won percentages (Moller 44.5%, Matusevich 38.5%)
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Both players have solid serve and return numbers, making a close opening set with at least 10 games likely.
- Matusevich last 15 first-serve points won 74.8%, Moller 64.8%
- Moller last 15 return points won 44.5%, Matusevich 38.5%
- Matusevich last 15 hard-court average 22.6 games per match
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Matusevich's superior serve and break-point saving on hard courts should give him an early advantage in set 1.
- Matusevich last 15 first-serve points won 74.8%, Moller 64.8%
- Matusevich last 15 break points saved 63.6%, Moller 56.2%
- Matusevich hard-court last 5 record 4-1, Moller hard-court last 1 record 1-0
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonAnton MatusevichEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Matusevich's strong ace rate combined with Moller's modest ace output should push the total over 7.5 in a Bo3 match.
- Matusevich last 15 aces per match 4.9, Moller 1.9
- Matusevich hard-court last 5 aces per match 4.8
- Matusevich career aces 1766 in 363 matches (4.9 per match)
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Moller's high double-fault rate is likely to push the combined total over 7.5, though Matusevich's lower rate adds uncertainty.
- Moller last 15 double faults per match 5.7, Matusevich 2.7
- Moller last 15 clay double faults per match 6.1
- Matusevich hard-court last 5 double faults per match 3.4
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance52%

Head-to-Head

0-1 (1 meetings)

L6-3 6-3Elmer Moller#172vAnton Matusevich#357Oct 20, 2022

1 total meetings

Previous match context available

Elmer Moller

8W 7L

6-4 6-2#542Ivan Ivanov

6-1 6-3#481Rudolf Molleker

6-1 7-6(4)#179Jerome Kym

7-6(4) 7-5#381Carlos Taberner

7-6(4) 7-6(2)#232Raul Brancaccio

6-3 6-2#581Jamie Mackenzie

6-1 1-6 6-3#581Jamie Mackenzie

6-4 7-5#338Marko Topo

6-3 6-4#331Thomas Faurel

6-4 6-4#634Pierluigi Basile

7-6(9) 6-1#424Norbert Gombos

6-1 3-0 ret.#254Felix Balshaw

6-4 7-5#482Luca Potenza

6-2 3-6 6-4#121Zsombor Piros

7-5 6-2#263Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva

Anton Matusevich

10W 5L

6-4 7-5#393Yuta Shimizu

6-4 7-6(11)#380Oliver Tarvet

6-3 6-4#475Emile Hudd

6-3 3-6 6-3#900Sebastian Dominko

7-6(4) 6-3#824Conor Gannon

6-7(5) 6-4 6-3#342Max Hans Rehberg

7-5 6-4#283Alvaro Guillen Meza

6-0 6-3#266Cezar Cretu

6-3 6-2#529Luca Staeheli

6-2 6-4—Nikola Djosic

2-6 6-4 7-6(4)#377Max Wiskandt

7-6(6) 6-1#788Michael Agwi

7-6(4) 7-5#729Aryan Shah

6-2 6-2#326Calvin Hemery

7-6(6) 3-6 6-3#165Rei Sakamoto

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

EMElmer MollerMoller

Last 15

2–7

9 core stats · 0 even

Anton MatusevichMatusevichAM

Anton Matusevich carries the stronger recent form — Elmer Moller's route runs through return.

Serve · 1–4

1st Serve In61.9%+5.0pp56.9%

1st Serve Won64.8%+10.0pp74.8%

2nd Serve Won42.3%+9.3pp51.6%

Aces / Match1.9+3.04.9

Double Faults / Match5.73.0 fewer2.7

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won44.5%+6.0pp38.5%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted43.1%+1.0pp44.1%

Break Pts Saved56.2%+7.4pp63.6%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won50.3%+1.3pp51.6%

Serve · 1–4

61.9%1st Serve In+5.0pp56.9%

64.8%1st Serve Won+10.0pp74.8%

42.3%2nd Serve Won+9.3pp51.6%

1.9Aces / Match+3.04.9

5.7Double Faults / Match3.0 fewer2.7

Return · 1–0

44.5%Return Pts Won+6.0pp38.5%

Pressure · 0–2

43.1%Break Pts Converted+1.0pp44.1%

56.2%Break Pts Saved+7.4pp63.6%

Points · 0–1

50.3%Total Pts Won+1.3pp51.6%