SwitzerlandSion - SwitzerlandFinished

Predictions graded

Lorenzo Giustino #198Italy2Dimitar Kuzmanov #3871

Sets 6-3 · 5-7 · 6-1Thu 20 Aug 2026, 12:10 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalClay

Predictions3–443%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageLorenzo Giustino · 189 places

Lorenzo Giustino

Italy

Provided structured data lists Giustino at No. 198, right-handed with a two-handed backhand. No additional reliable current profile fact was established.

Current ranking: #198
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Dimitar Kuzmanov

Kuzmanov reached a career-high No. 159 in August 2022. The ITF lists clay as his preferred surface; no current injury or absence signal was surfaced in the requested search.

Current ranking: #387
Peak ranking: #159 · 2022
Current age: 33
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 19 Aug 2026, 22:08 · Europe/Bucharest

Kuzmanov is favored based on superior recent clay form, return stats, and a dominant recent H2H win, but the odds may be slightly short.

Giustino's matches trend long and competitive, making the over on total games and Giustino +2.5 games the best betting angles.

Context

Giustino beat Jerome Kym Bernet 6-4, 3-6, 7-6(3) on 19 August.
- Kuzmanov beat Alex Marti Pujolras 6-1, 3-6, 6-1 on 19 August.
- Both matches were completed the day before this quarter-final.
Kuzmanov's last-15 clay record is 9-4 (69.2%) with 13 matches tracked.
- Giustino's last-15 clay record is 9-6 (60%) with 15 matches tracked.
- Kuzmanov wins 42.1% of return points overall in his last 15 matches, compared to Giustino's 36.7%.
Kuzmanov won their last meeting 6-1, 6-1 on 6 March 2026.
- Kuzmanov leads the head-to-head 3-2 overall.
- On clay, the head-to-head is tied 2-2.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

Dimitar Kuzmanov

1.60fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 62.5%

0.0ppshort

Kuzmanov's stronger recent clay form and return game, plus a dominant recent H2H win, give him the edge.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Kuzmanov's stronger recent clay form and return game, plus a dominant recent H2H win, give him the edge.
- Kuzmanov last15 overall record 10-5 (66.7%) vs Giustino 9-6 (60%)
- Kuzmanov clay last15 record 9-4 (69.2%) vs Giustino 9-6 (60%)
- Kuzmanov return points won 42.1% vs Giustino 36.7% in last15
- H2H Kuzmanov leads 3-2, won most recent meeting 6-1 6-1 in March 2026
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDimitar KuzmanovEstimated chance58%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Giustino's matches trend long and both come off three-setters, supporting a competitive match with over 21.5 games.
- Giustino last15 average 24.3 games per match (364/15)
- Kuzmanov last15 average 20.7 games per match (310/15)
- Giustino 3 of last 5 matches went to deciding set
- Both players had three-set matches in previous round
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Giustino's matches are longer and he keeps sets close, making +2.5 games a solid cover even in a loss.
- Giustino games won 50% in last15, Kuzmanov 56.1%
- Giustino average games per match 24.3 vs Kuzmanov 20.7
- H2H matches have been competitive except most recent
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonLorenzo Giustino +2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' first sets average near 9.5 games, making over 9.5 a reasonable lean.
- Giustino first set average 9.7 games in last15
- Kuzmanov first set average 9.3 games in last15
- Both players have similar first-set competitiveness
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Giustino's high rate of three-setters and both players' recent three-set workload suggest a decent chance of a deciding set.
- Giustino 7 of last 15 matches went to deciding set (46.7%)
- Kuzmanov 5 of last 15 matches went to deciding set (33.3%)
- Giustino's last match went 3 sets, Kuzmanov's last match went 3 sets
BetBugs · Total SetswonOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kuzmanov's overall form and return edge slightly favor him in the opening set, though Giustino's first-serve strength keeps it close.
- Kuzmanov first set win rate implied by 10-5 record and 61.8% sets won
- Giustino first set win rate 60% in last15
- Kuzmanov first serve points won 67.8% vs Giustino 73.6%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostDimitar KuzmanovEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Giustino's high double fault rate pushes the combined total near the line, favoring over 5.5.
- Giustino averages 3.5 double faults per match in last15
- Kuzmanov averages 1.7 double faults per match in last15
- Combined average 5.2 double faults per match
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined ace averages sit right at the line, with Giustino's higher ace rate providing slight over lean.
- Giustino averages 4.5 aces per match in last15
- Kuzmanov averages 2.0 aces per match in last15
- Combined average 6.5 aces per match
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Giustino's recent matches feature tiebreaks frequently, giving a coin-flip chance of at least one tiebreak.
- Giustino played 3 tiebreaks in last 5 matches
- Kuzmanov played 2 tiebreaks in last 15 matches
- Giustino tiebreak win rate 51% career
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance50%

Prediction history

Dimitar Kuzmanov has been highly reliable when projected to win

Dimitar Kuzmanov has fulfilled 8 of 11 recent win projections, a 73% success rate. His average estimated probability was 62.5%, with an expected 6.9 fulfilled predictions, indicating he has outperformed expectations. All three missed projections resulted in losses, with no draws or wins, and the current 58% probability sits within his historical range of 55-72%.

Recent evidence for Dimitar Kuzmanov11 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

29 Jul·Samsun - Turkey

#375Dimitar Kuzmanov1-2#679Paul Inchauspe

BetBugsDimitar Kuzmanov to win·62%

29 Jul 2026

Samsun - Turkey

#375Dimitar Kuzmanov1-2#679Paul Inchauspe

Dimitar Kuzmanov to win

62%probability

Paul Inchauspe won

27 Jul·Samsun - Turkey

#395Dimitar Kuzmanov2-0#476Alexandr Binda

BetBugsDimitar Kuzmanov to win·62%

27 Jul 2026

Samsun - Turkey

#395Dimitar Kuzmanov2-0#476Alexandr Binda

Dimitar Kuzmanov to win

62%probability

Dimitar Kuzmanov won

23 Jul·Tampere - Finland

#395Dimitar Kuzmanov0-2#125Otto Virtanen

BetBugsDimitar Kuzmanov to win·55%

23 Jul 2026

Tampere - Finland

#395Dimitar Kuzmanov0-2#125Otto Virtanen

Dimitar Kuzmanov to win

55%probability

Otto Virtanen won

21 Jul·Tampere - Finland

#245Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva0-2#395Dimitar Kuzmanov

BetBugsDimitar Kuzmanov to win·62%

21 Jul 2026

Tampere - Finland

#245Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva0-2#395Dimitar Kuzmanov

Dimitar Kuzmanov to win

62%probability

Dimitar Kuzmanov won

20 Jul·Tampere - Finland

#394Dimitar Kuzmanov2-0#566Maxime Janvier

BetBugsDimitar Kuzmanov to win·62%

20 Jul 2026

Tampere - Finland

#394Dimitar Kuzmanov2-0#566Maxime Janvier

Dimitar Kuzmanov to win

62%probability

Dimitar Kuzmanov won

Head-to-Head

2-3 (5 meetings)

L6-1 6-1Lorenzo Giustino#195vDimitar Kuzmanov#387Mar 6, 2026

W1-6 7-6(1) 6-2Lorenzo Giustino#195vDimitar Kuzmanov#387May 10, 2023

L6-4 6-4Lorenzo Giustino#195vDimitar Kuzmanov#387Jul 29, 2022

W7-6(4) 4-6 6-2Lorenzo Giustino#195vDimitar Kuzmanov#387May 7, 2022

L6-3 1-6 6-3Lorenzo Giustino#195vDimitar Kuzmanov#387May 4, 2021

5 total meetings

Previous match context available

Lorenzo Giustino

9W 6L

6-4 3-6 7-6(3)#436Henry Bernet

6-4 6-3#694Thiago Cigarran

6-3 7-6(4)#179Jerome Kym

4-6 7-5 7-6(4)#251Matej Dodig

3-6 7-6(3) 6-4#191Vitaliy Sachko

3-6 6-3 6-2#415Olle Wallin

6-4 6-2#174Federico Cina

6-2 6-4—Nico Hipfl

2-6 6-2 6-1#237Franco Roncadelli

6-7(4) 6-4 6-1#293Florian Broska

7-6(3) 6-3#302Miguel Damas

7-5 6-4#472Jack Loge

6-3 6-4#637Emilien Demanet

6-3 4-6 6-2#665Leo Raquillet

6-4 6-3#235Kilian Feldbausch

Dimitar Kuzmanov

10W 5L

6-1 3-6 6-1#524Alex Marti Pujolras 6-3 6-4#327Marvin Moeller

1-6 7-6(4) 6-0#580Paul Inchauspe

7-5 6-4#557Alexandr Binda

6-4 6-2#116Otto Virtanen

6-1 6-2#263Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva

6-0 6-1#566Maxime Janvier

7-5 6-2#861Jannik Opitz

7-6(5) 6-3#508Ryan Nijboer

4-6 6-4 6-3#593Daniel De Jonge

6-4 6-4#77Jan Choinski

6-2 6-2#449Robert Strombachs

6-3 6-4#887Rafael Matos

6-2 6-3#121Zsombor Piros

4-6 6-2 7-6(5)#207Luka Pavlovic

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

LGLorenzo GiustinoGiustino

Last 15

3–6

9 core stats · 0 even

Dimitar KuzmanovKuzmanovDK

Dimitar Kuzmanov carries the stronger recent form — Lorenzo Giustino's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In55.9%+12.9pp68.8%

1st Serve Won73.6%+5.8pp67.8%

2nd Serve Won46.8%+10.4pp57.2%

Aces / Match4.5+2.52.0

Double Faults / Match3.51.8 fewer1.7

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won36.7%+5.4pp42.1%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted46.1%+4.6pp41.5%

Break Pts Saved52.2%+7.1pp59.3%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won49.5%+3.5pp53.0%

Serve · 2–3

55.9%1st Serve In+12.9pp68.8%

73.6%1st Serve Won+5.8pp67.8%

46.8%2nd Serve Won+10.4pp57.2%

4.5Aces / Match+2.52.0

3.5Double Faults / Match1.8 fewer1.7

Return · 0–1

36.7%Return Pts Won+5.4pp42.1%

Pressure · 1–1

46.1%Break Pts Converted+4.6pp41.5%

52.2%Break Pts Saved+7.1pp59.3%

Points · 0–1

49.5%Total Pts Won+3.5pp53.0%