SwitzerlandSion - SwitzerlandFinished

Predictions graded

Alex Marti Pujolras #524Spain1Dimitar Kuzmanov #3872

Sets 1-6 · 6-3 · 1-6Wed 19 Aug 2026, 10:00 Predictions gradedSecond RoundClay

Predictions5–271%

Edges4–180%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageDimitar Kuzmanov · 137 places

Alex Marti Pujolras

Spain

Spanish right-hander, born 10 February 1999. ITF lists clay as his preferred surface and a career-best ATP singles ranking of No. 318 in July 2025.

Current ranking: #524
Peak ranking: #318 · 2025
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Dimitar Kuzmanov

Kuzmanov reached a career-high No. 159 in August 2022. The ITF lists clay as his preferred surface; no current injury or absence signal was surfaced in the requested search.

Current ranking: #387
Peak ranking: #159 · 2022
Current age: 33
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 18 Aug 2026, 22:11 · Europe/Bucharest

Kuzmanov is the favorite with better form and serve metrics, but Pujolras's recent clay-court wins and competitive game percentages make the match closer than the odds imply.

Value lies in Pujolras +3.5 games and over 21.5 total games, while Kuzmanov's straight-sets price is too short.

Context

Pujolras won his last three matches on clay: 7-6(2) 6-3 vs Campana Lee, 7-6(1) 6-4 vs Bocchi, and 7-6(5) 5-7 6-4 vs Neuchrist.
- All three wins came in the current Sion Challenger, indicating he is comfortable with the conditions.
- His opponents were ranked 546, 610, and 897, so the wins came against lower-ranked players.
Kuzmanov last-15 overall second-serve points won: 57.1% (168/294).
- Pujolras last-15 overall second-serve points won: 41.6% (187/449).
- On clay, Kuzmanov's second-serve points won is 55.9% (132/236) over 13 matches, still well above Pujolras's 42.5% (183/431) over 14 matches.
Pujolras last-15 double faults per match: 7.8 (117 double faults in 15 matches).
- On clay, his rate is 7.9 per match (111 in 14 matches).
- Kuzmanov averages only 1.7 double faults per match overall, so he is less likely to give away free points.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.29
The read
Kuzmanov's stronger recent form, higher ranking, and significantly better second-serve performance give him a clear edge on clay.
- Kuzmanov last-15 overall record 10-5 (66.7%) vs Pujolras 7-8 (46.7%)
- Kuzmanov clay last-13 record 9-4 (69.2%) vs Pujolras clay last-14 7-7 (50%)
- Kuzmanov ranking 387 vs Pujolras 524
- Kuzmanov second-serve points won 57.1% vs Pujolras 41.6% overall last 15
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonDimitar KuzmanovEstimated chance62%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Both players' recent match averages are near or above 21 games, supporting a competitive match with over 21.5 total games.
- Pujolras last-15 average 22.2 games per match (333 games / 15 matches)
- Kuzmanov last-15 average 20.9 games per match (314 games / 15 matches)
- Pujolras clay last-14 average 22.4 games per match (314 games / 14 matches)
- Kuzmanov clay last-13 average 20.5 games per match (266 games / 13 matches)
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Pujolras's competitive game percentages suggest he can stay within 3.5 games even if he loses.
- Pujolras last-15 games won 49.2%
- Kuzmanov last-15 games won 55.4%
- Pujolras clay last-14 games won 50%
- Kuzmanov clay last-13 games won 56%
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonAlex Marti Pujolras +3.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Both players have shown tight first sets recently, making over 9.5 games in set 1 likely.
- Pujolras recent set scores include 7-6, 7-6, 7-6 in last three matches
- Kuzmanov recent set scores include 7-5, 7-6, 6-4 in last five matches
- Both players have tiebreak win percentages near 50% (Pujolras 55%, Kuzmanov 48%)
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.36
The read
Kuzmanov's overall match edge and comparable first-set conversion rate make him the likely set 1 winner.
- Kuzmanov first-set win conversion career 85% vs Pujolras 87%
- Kuzmanov last-15 first-serve points won 67.8% vs Pujolras 67.9%
- Kuzmanov last-15 return points won 41.4% vs Pujolras 42.1%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonDimitar KuzmanovEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Pujolras's extremely high double fault rate drives the combined average well above 8.5.
- Pujolras last-15 double faults per match 7.8
- Kuzmanov last-15 double faults per match 1.7
- Combined average double faults per match 9.5
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Pujolras's recent matches frequently feature tiebreaks, and both players have moderate tiebreak rates.
- Pujolras has played tiebreaks in 3 of last 3 matches
- Kuzmanov has played tiebreaks in 2 of last 5 matches
- Pujolras tiebreak win percentage 55%, Kuzmanov 48%
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance55%

Prediction history

Dimitar Kuzmanov has been highly reliable when projected to win

Dimitar Kuzmanov has fulfilled 8 of 11 recent win predictions, a 73% success rate. His average estimated probability was 62.5%, with an expected 6.9 fulfilled predictions, so he has outperformed expectation. All three misses were losses, with no draws or wins by the opponent, and his current 62% probability sits within his historical range of 55-72%.

Recent evidence for Dimitar Kuzmanov11 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

29 Jul·Samsun - Turkey

#375Dimitar Kuzmanov1-2#679Paul Inchauspe

BetBugsDimitar Kuzmanov to win·62%

29 Jul 2026

Samsun - Turkey

#375Dimitar Kuzmanov1-2#679Paul Inchauspe

Dimitar Kuzmanov to win

62%probability

Paul Inchauspe won

27 Jul·Samsun - Turkey

#395Dimitar Kuzmanov2-0#476Alexandr Binda

BetBugsDimitar Kuzmanov to win·62%

27 Jul 2026

Samsun - Turkey

#395Dimitar Kuzmanov2-0#476Alexandr Binda

Dimitar Kuzmanov to win

62%probability

Dimitar Kuzmanov won

23 Jul·Tampere - Finland

#395Dimitar Kuzmanov0-2#125Otto Virtanen

BetBugsDimitar Kuzmanov to win·55%

23 Jul 2026

Tampere - Finland

#395Dimitar Kuzmanov0-2#125Otto Virtanen

Dimitar Kuzmanov to win

55%probability

Otto Virtanen won

21 Jul·Tampere - Finland

#245Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva0-2#395Dimitar Kuzmanov

BetBugsDimitar Kuzmanov to win·62%

21 Jul 2026

Tampere - Finland

#245Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva0-2#395Dimitar Kuzmanov

Dimitar Kuzmanov to win

62%probability

Dimitar Kuzmanov won

20 Jul·Tampere - Finland

#394Dimitar Kuzmanov2-0#566Maxime Janvier

BetBugsDimitar Kuzmanov to win·62%

20 Jul 2026

Tampere - Finland

#394Dimitar Kuzmanov2-0#566Maxime Janvier

Dimitar Kuzmanov to win

62%probability

Dimitar Kuzmanov won

Previous match context available

Alex Marti Pujolras

7W 8L

7-6(2) 6-3#546Gerard Campana Lee

7-6(1) 6-4#610Lorenzo Bocchi 7-6(5) 5-7 6-4#897Maximilian Neuchrist

6-4 4-6 6-2#562Dimitris Sakellaridis

6-4 6-0#484Dusan Obradovic

6-3 6-4#227Oliver Crawford

6-4 6-4#823Abel Forger

6-1 6-4#266Cezar Cretu

6-2 2-6 6-4#689Samir Hamza Reguig

6-2 6-3#634N. Vijay Sundar Prashanth

6-3 6-1#342Max Hans Rehberg

6-3 4-6 6-2#402Andrej Martin

7-6(4) 6-2#514Benjamin Hassan

7-6(5) 7-5#184Luka Mikrut

7-6(2) 6-2—David Fix

Dimitar Kuzmanov

10W 5L

6-3 6-4#327Marvin Moeller

1-6 7-6(4) 6-0#580Paul Inchauspe

7-5 6-4#557Alexandr Binda

6-4 6-2#116Otto Virtanen

6-1 6-2#263Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva

6-0 6-1#566Maxime Janvier

7-5 6-2#861Jannik Opitz

7-6(5) 6-3#508Ryan Nijboer

4-6 6-4 6-3#593Daniel De Jonge

6-4 6-4#77Jan Choinski

6-2 6-2#449Robert Strombachs

6-3 6-4#887Rafael Matos

6-2 6-3#121Zsombor Piros

4-6 6-2 7-6(5)#207Luka Pavlovic

3-6 6-4 6-2#267Ilia Simakin

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

APAlex Marti PujolrasPujolras

Last 15

2–4

9 core stats · 3 even

Dimitar KuzmanovKuzmanovDK

Dimitar Kuzmanov carries the stronger recent form — Alex Marti Pujolras's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

1st Serve In60.0%+9.7pp69.7%

1st Serve Won67.9%—67.8%

2nd Serve Won41.6%+15.5pp57.1%

Aces / Match3.4+1.32.1

Double Faults / Match7.86.1 fewer1.7

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won42.1%—41.4%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted53.1%+12.9pp40.2%

Break Pts Saved60.4%—61.0%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won49.9%+2.8pp52.7%

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

60.0%1st Serve In+9.7pp69.7%

67.9%1st Serve Won—67.8%

41.6%2nd Serve Won+15.5pp57.1%

3.4Aces / Match+1.32.1

7.8Double Faults / Match6.1 fewer1.7

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

42.1%Return Pts Won—41.4%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

53.1%Break Pts Converted+12.9pp40.2%

60.4%Break Pts Saved—61.0%

Points · 0–1

49.9%Total Pts Won+2.8pp52.7%