SwitzerlandSion - SwitzerlandFinished

Predictions graded

Dimitar Kuzmanov #3872Marvin Moeller #319Germany0

Sets 6-3 · 6-4Tue 18 Aug 2026, 12:00 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions0–60%

Edges0–20%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMarvin Moeller · 68 places

Dimitar Kuzmanov

Kuzmanov reached a career-high No. 159 in August 2022. The ITF lists clay as his preferred surface; no current injury or absence signal was surfaced in the requested search.

Current ranking: #387
Peak ranking: #159 · 2022
Current age: 33
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Marvin Moeller

Germany

Moeller reached a career-high No. 287 on 27 May 2024 and is No. 319 in the supplied current data. He is a 27-year-old right-hander from Hamburg.

Current ranking: #319
Peak ranking: #287 · 2024
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 16 Aug 2026, 15:22 · Europe/Bucharest

Marvin Moeller is the clear form player with a 13-2 recent record on clay and a superior return game, giving him a strong edge over Dimitar Kuzmanov.

Back Moeller to win the match and set 1 at odds around 1.85, as both markets offer value. Expect a competitive match with a moderate total of games and aces.

Context

Moeller's last15 overall record is 13-2 (86.7%), all on clay.
- He won the Sion Challenger last week, beating Matej Dodig 6-2 6-4 in the final.
- His last15 sets won percentage is 74.3%, compared to Kuzmanov's 60%.
- Moeller has won 11 of his last 15 first sets.
Moeller return points won: 45.1% vs Kuzmanov 41.4% in last15.
- Moeller break points converted: 46.6% vs Kuzmanov 41.5%.
- Both players save break points at similar rates (60.4% vs 60.2%).
- Moeller's second serve points won is only 50.8%, but his return pressure can offset that.
Kuzmanov last15 overall record: 10-5 (66.7%).
- Kuzmanov last15 clay record: 9-4 (69.2%).
- Kuzmanov sets won percentage: 60% vs Moeller's 74.3%.
- Kuzmanov has played five three-set matches in his last 15, showing resilience but also vulnerability.
H2H: Kuzmanov leads 1-0, winning 6-2 6-3 on clay in 2018.
- Both players were much earlier in their careers then.
- Moeller's current ranking (327) is higher than Kuzmanov's (387), reflecting recent improvement.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Moeller's superior recent form and return game on clay give him a clear edge in this Bo3 match.
- Moeller last15 overall record 13-2 (86.7%), Kuzmanov 10-5 (66.7%)
- Moeller last15 clay record 13-2, Kuzmanov 9-4 on clay
- Moeller return points won 45.1% vs Kuzmanov 41.4% in last15
- Moeller ranking 327 vs Kuzmanov 387
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostMarvin MoellerEstimated chance62%

Games0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Competitive clay-court matchup with solid serving suggests a moderately high total games count.
- Kuzmanov last15 average games per match 21.3, Moeller 22.7
- Both players have high break point save rates (60.2% and 60.4%)
- Moeller has played 3 three-set matches in last 15, Kuzmanov 5
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Evenly matched first sets with strong serving point to a close opening set.
- Kuzmanov last15 first set average 9.8 games, Moeller 9.9
- Both players have first serve points won around 67-70%
- Moeller has played 4 tiebreaks in last 15 matches
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Moeller's strong first-set record and higher set win percentage make him the likely set 1 winner.
- Moeller first set win conversion 90% career, Kuzmanov 85%
- Moeller last15 sets won 74.3% vs Kuzmanov 60%
- Moeller has won first set in 11 of last 15 matches
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostMarvin MoellerEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average under 2 double faults per match, supporting a low total double faults count.
- Kuzmanov last15 double faults per match 1.6, Moeller 1.8
- Combined average double faults per match 3.4
- Both players have first serve percentages above 59%
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 3.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average over 2 aces per match, making over 4.5 total aces likely.
- Kuzmanov last15 aces per match 2.3, Moeller 2.5
- Combined average aces per match 4.8
- Moeller has 37 aces in last 15 matches, Kuzmanov 34
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

1-0 (1 meetings)

W6-2 6-3Dimitar Kuzmanov#387vMarvin Moeller#327Jun 24, 2018

1 total meetings

Previous match context available

Dimitar Kuzmanov

10W 5L

1-6 7-6(4) 6-0#580Paul Inchauspe

7-5 6-4#557Alexandr Binda

6-4 6-2#116Otto Virtanen

6-1 6-2#263Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva

6-0 6-1#566Maxime Janvier

7-5 6-2#861Jannik Opitz

7-6(5) 6-3#508Ryan Nijboer

4-6 6-4 6-3#593Daniel De Jonge

6-4 6-4#77Jan Choinski

6-2 6-2#449Robert Strombachs

6-3 6-4#887Rafael Matos

6-2 6-3#121Zsombor Piros

4-6 6-2 7-6(5)#207Luka Pavlovic

3-6 6-4 6-2#267Ilia Simakin

4-6 6-3 6-0#553Peter Makk

Marvin Moeller

13W 2L

6-2 6-4#251Matej Dodig 6-4 6-0#531Niels Mcdonald

5-7 7-6(5) 7-6(4)#232Raul Brancaccio

6-1 5-7 6-4#266Cezar Cretu

6-2 6-4#97Hugo Gaston

6-3 5-0 ret.#70Adolfo Daniel Vallejo

0-6 6-3 7-6(6)#847Benito Sanchez Martinez

7-6(5) 6-3#235Kilian Feldbausch

7-6(5) 7-6(7)#326Calvin Hemery

6-2 3-6 7-6(1)#399Marat Sharipov (RUS)

6-2 6-3—Mickael Kaouk

6-4 6-2#643Fryderyk Lechno-Wasiutynski

6-2 7-5#442Dylan Dietrich

6-2 6-7(1) 7-5#874Tom Zeuch

6-0 6-2—David Tixhon

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

DKDimitar KuzmanovKuzmanov

Last 15

2–3

9 core stats · 4 even

Marvin MoellerMoellerMM

Marvin Moeller carries the stronger recent form — Dimitar Kuzmanov's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–1 · 2 even

1st Serve In70.2%+10.7pp59.5%

1st Serve Won67.5%+2.9pp70.4%

2nd Serve Won58.1%+7.3pp50.8%

Aces / Match2.3—2.5

Double Faults / Match1.6—1.8

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won41.4%+3.7pp45.1%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted41.5%+5.1pp46.6%

Break Pts Saved60.2%—60.4%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won52.7%—53.3%

Serve · 2–1 · 2 even

70.2%1st Serve In+10.7pp59.5%

67.5%1st Serve Won+2.9pp70.4%

58.1%2nd Serve Won+7.3pp50.8%

2.3Aces / Match—2.5

1.6Double Faults / Match—1.8

Return · 0–1

41.4%Return Pts Won+3.7pp45.1%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

41.5%Break Pts Converted+5.1pp46.6%

60.2%Break Pts Saved—60.4%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

52.7%Total Pts Won—53.3%