TürkiyeSamsun - TurkeyFinished

Predictions graded

Dimitar Kuzmanov #3952Alexandr Binda #476Russia0

Sets 7-5 · 6-4Mon 27 Jul 2026, 15:30 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions4–357%

Edges4–180%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageDimitar Kuzmanov · 81 places

Dimitar Kuzmanov

Kuzmanov turns 33 on July 28, the day after this match. Clay is his stated favourite surface, and he reached career-high No. 159 in August 2022.

Current ranking: #395
Peak ranking: #159 · 2022
Current age: 32
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Alexandr Binda

Russia

Binda reached career-high No. 368 in August 2025 and is currently No. 476. No explicit reliable preferred-surface statement was found.

Current ranking: #476
Peak ranking: #368 · 2025
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 26 Jul 2026, 18:04 · Europe/Bucharest

Kuzmanov is the rightful favorite, but his 1.18 odds overstate his edge on a hard-court surface where both players lack recent form.

The best value lies in Binda +3.5 games and over 21.5 total games, as Binda's competitive match history and Kuzmanov's moderate margins suggest a closer contest than the market expects.

Context

Kuzmanov's last 15 matches were all on clay, with his most recent match on July 23.
- He must transition from clay in Finland to hard court in Turkey within four days.
- His career hard-court win rate is 62.6%, but he has no hard-court matches in the last 15.
Binda's last 15 includes 4 hard-court matches (2-2 record), with both losses in three sets.
- On hard courts in that sample, he averaged 4.3 aces per match and won 52.9% of games.
- His overall last-15 record is 7-8, but the hard-court subset shows he can be competitive.
Binda's last-15 double faults per match: 3.2, compared to Kuzmanov's 1.4.
- Binda's second-serve points won in last 15: 45.1%, Kuzmanov's: 55.5%.
- Binda's break points saved in last 15: 50.9%, indicating vulnerability on serve.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.18
The read
Kuzmanov's superior recent form (10-5 vs 7-8) and higher career hard-court win percentage give him a clear edge, though the surface switch from clay adds uncertainty.
- Kuzmanov last15 overall record 10-5 (66.7%) vs Binda 7-8 (46.7%), all on clay
- Kuzmanov last15 total points won 52.8% vs Binda 50.1%
- Kuzmanov career hard-court win% 62.6% (233-139) vs Binda 59.7% (135-91)
- Kuzmanov ranking 395 vs Binda 476
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonDimitar KuzmanovEstimated chance62%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Binda's matches average 23.6 games and both players have solid return stats, making a competitive match likely to exceed 21.5 games.
- Kuzmanov last15 average games per match 20.3 (304 games/15 matches)
- Binda last15 average games per match 23.6 (354 games/15 matches)
- Binda last15 on clay average match duration 142.1 minutes, indicating longer matches
- Both players have similar return points won (Kuzmanov 42.2%, Binda 43.8%)
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Binda's competitive game counts and Kuzmanov's moderate winning margins suggest Binda can cover a +3.5 game handicap.
- Kuzmanov last15 average games won per match 11.5, Binda 12.0
- Binda last15 on clay average games won per match 12.2
- Kuzmanov last15 on clay average games lost per match 8.8
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostAlexandr Binda +3.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
With both players converting breaks at a moderate rate, the first set could be tight, but the surface switch adds uncertainty.
- Kuzmanov last15 average games per set 5.06 (172 games/34 sets)
- Binda last15 average games per set 4.86 (180 games/37 sets)
- Both players have break-point conversion rates around 40-43%
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Kuzmanov's higher overall sets-won percentage and strong first-serve points won suggest he can start well, but Binda's high first-set conversion rate keeps confidence low.
- Kuzmanov last15 first-set win% not directly available, but overall sets won 58.8% vs Binda 51.4%
- Kuzmanov career first-set win conversion 85% vs Binda 88%
- Binda last15 on clay first-serve points won 64% vs Kuzmanov 67.5%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonDimitar KuzmanovEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Binda's higher rate of three-setters on clay and his better career deciding-set record suggest a chance of a decider, but the hard-court surface may reduce that likelihood.
- Kuzmanov last15 deciding-set win% 49% career, Binda 57% career
- Binda last15 on clay 5 of 11 matches went to three sets (45.5%)
- Kuzmanov last15 on clay 5 of 15 matches went to three sets (33.3%)
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Binda's high double-fault rate (3.2 per match) alone makes over 4.5 likely, even with Kuzmanov's low count.
- Binda last15 double faults per match 3.2, Kuzmanov 1.4
- Binda last15 on clay double faults per match 3.5
- Binda career double faults 953 in 360 matches (2.65 per match)
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 4.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Binda's higher ace rate, especially on hard courts, combined with Kuzmanov's modest ace count, could push the total over 5.5.
- Kuzmanov last15 aces per match 1.9, Binda 2.5
- Binda last15 on hard aces per match 4.3 (4 matches)
- Kuzmanov career aces 1534 in 944 matches (1.62 per match)
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 5.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 3 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Dimitar Kuzmanov

10W 5L

6-4 6-2#125Otto Virtanen

6-1 6-2#245Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva

6-0 6-1#581Maxime Janvier

7-5 6-2#855Jannik Opitz

7-6(5) 6-3#489Ryan Nijboer

4-6 6-4 6-3#606Daniel De Jonge

6-4 6-4#90Jan Choinski

6-2 6-2#440Robert Strombachs

6-3 6-4#887Rafael Matos

6-2 6-3#119Zsombor Piros

4-6 6-2 7-6(5)#278Luka Pavlovic

3-6 6-4 6-2#291Ilia Simakin

4-6 6-3 6-0#546Peter Makk

6-0 6-1#634N. Vijay Sundar Prashanth

6-3 6-4#528Jelle Sels

Alexandr Binda

7W 8L

6-3 5-7 6-2#874Adrian Andreev

7-6(3) 3-6 6-4#550Matyas Fuele

7-5 6-3—Aaron Gil Garcia

5-7 6-3 6-4#896David Poljak

6-2 3-6 6-2#511Reda Bennani

7-5 7-5#866Amaury Raynel

4-6 7-5 6-3—Dmitrii Burtsev

7-6(5) 6-2#716Gabriele Bosio

6-4 4-6 6-2—Kacper Szymkowiak

6-0 7-6(7)#882Mariano Tammaro

4-2 ret.—Lorenzo Lorusso

7-5 4-6 6-1#417Vadym Ursu

4-6 6-2 6-1—Karol Malirz

6-0 6-3—Jack Mcgary

6-4 6-2#302Sergey Fomin

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

DKDimitar KuzmanovKuzmanov

Last 15

7–2

9 core stats · 0 even

Alexandr BindaBindaAB

Dimitar Kuzmanov carries the stronger recent form — Alexandr Binda's route runs through serve.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In70.3%+8.8pp61.5%

1st Serve Won67.5%+3.1pp64.4%

2nd Serve Won55.5%+10.4pp45.1%

Aces / Match1.9+0.62.5

Double Faults / Match1.41.8 fewer3.2

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won42.2%+1.6pp43.8%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted43.2%+2.7pp40.5%

Break Pts Saved57.7%+6.8pp50.9%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won52.8%+2.7pp50.1%

Serve · 4–1

70.3%1st Serve In+8.8pp61.5%

67.5%1st Serve Won+3.1pp64.4%

55.5%2nd Serve Won+10.4pp45.1%

1.9Aces / Match+0.62.5

1.4Double Faults / Match1.8 fewer3.2

Return · 0–1

42.2%Return Pts Won+1.6pp43.8%

Pressure · 2–0

43.2%Break Pts Converted+2.7pp40.5%

57.7%Break Pts Saved+6.8pp50.9%

Points · 1–0

52.8%Total Pts Won+2.7pp50.1%