SwitzerlandSion - SwitzerlandFinished

Predictions graded

Alex Marti Pujolras #524Spain2Maximilian Neuchrist #897Austria1

Sets 7-6 · 5-7 · 6-4Sun 16 Aug 2026, 09:50 Predictions gradedQ1Clay

Predictions6–0100%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAlex Marti Pujolras · 373 places

Alex Marti Pujolras

Spain

Spanish right-hander, born 10 February 1999. ITF lists clay as his preferred surface and a career-best ATP singles ranking of No. 318 in July 2025.

Current ranking: #524
Peak ranking: #318 · 2025
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Maximilian Neuchrist

Austria

Austrian right-hander, born 22 July 1991. His documented ATP singles career high is No. 182, reached in April 2023; no reliable preferred-surface source surfaced in the specified searches.

Current ranking: #897
Peak ranking: #182 · 2023
Current age: 35
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 16 Aug 2026, 06:02 · Europe/Bucharest

Marti Pujolras is favored by ranking and clay pedigree, but his poor recent form and high double fault rate make him vulnerable.

Neuchrist's strong serve could keep the match close, and the match winner odds on Marti Pujolras (1.35) offer no value. Consider betting over 7.5 double faults and over 21.5 total games.

Context

Last 15 overall record: 6-9 (40%).
- Recent clay losses to Abel Forger (#823) and Samir Hamza Reguig (#689).
- Last 5 matches: 2 wins, 3 losses, with losses to Sakellaridis (#562) and Crawford (#227).
Marti Pujolras last 15 double faults per match: 6.9.
- Neuchrist last 15 double faults per match: 1.5.
- Marti Pujolras second serve points won: only 39.9%.
Neuchrist clay last 7 matches: 74.2% first-serve points won, 9 aces per match.
- Neuchrist clay return points won: 30.8%.
- Marti Pujolras clay return points won: 45.2%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Alex Marti Pujolras

1.35fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 74.1%

0.0ppshort

The model estimate of 58% is significantly below the implied probability of 74.1%, indicating no value on the favorite.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.35
The read
Marti Pujolras has a stronger clay-court profile and ranking edge, while Neuchrist's recent clay return numbers are weak.
- Last 15 overall record: 6-9 (40%), but 6-8 on clay with 51.2% games won.
- Career clay record: 360-? (60.6% overall win rate), strong clay specialist.
- Neuchrist last 15 clay: 3-4 record, 48.8% games won, 30.8% return points won.
- Ranking: Marti Pujolras #524 vs Neuchrist #897.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAlex Marti PujolrasEstimated chance58%

Games2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have shown competitive first sets, with several going to 10+ games.
- Marti Pujolras recent first sets: 6-4, 6-4, 6-3, 6-4, 6-1, 6-2, 6-2, 6-3, 6-3, 7-6, 7-6, 6-4, 6-2, 6-0.
- Neuchrist recent first sets: 6-2, 7-5, 6-4, 1-4 ret, 4-3 ret, 6-4, 3-6, 6-0, 6-2, 6-2, 6-3, 7-6, 7-5, 6-0, 6-4.
- Many first sets have gone to at least 10 games.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have competitive recent matches, and clay surface tends to produce longer rallies and more games.
- Marti Pujolras last 15 average games per match: 20.1 (151 games / 15 matches).
- Neuchrist last 15 average games per match: 19.3 (145 games / 15 matches).
- Combined average suggests around 20 games, but clay matches often extend.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Marti Pujolras's superior clay return game gives him a slight edge to start the match.
- Marti Pujolras first set win conversion career: 87%.
- Neuchrist first set win conversion career: 89%.
- Both players have similar recent form, but Marti Pujolras has better clay return points won (45.2% vs 30.8%).
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonAlex Marti PujolrasEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Marti Pujolras's high double fault rate (6.9 per match) makes the over likely.
- Marti Pujolras last 15 double faults per match: 6.9.
- Neuchrist last 15 double faults per match: 1.5.
- Combined average is 8.4, with Marti Pujolras contributing heavily.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Neuchrist's high ace rate on clay (9.0 per match) pushes the total up, though clay typically lowers ace counts.
- Marti Pujolras last 15 aces per match: 2.9.
- Neuchrist last 15 aces per match: 5.9 (overall), 9.0 on clay.
- Combined expected aces around 8-9, but clay reduces ace counts.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

The favorite is overpriced based on recent form and surface-specific metrics.

Alex Marti Pujolras

6W 9L

6-4 4-6 6-2#562Dimitris Sakellaridis

6-4 6-0#484Dusan Obradovic

6-3 6-4#227Oliver Crawford

6-4 6-4#823Abel Forger

6-1 6-4#266Cezar Cretu

6-2 2-6 6-4#689Samir Hamza Reguig

6-2 6-3#634N. Vijay Sundar Prashanth

6-3 6-1#342Max Hans Rehberg

6-3 4-6 6-2#402Andrej Martin

7-6(4) 6-2#514Benjamin Hassan

7-6(5) 7-5#184Luka Mikrut

7-6(2) 6-2—David Fix

6-4 6-3#351Oriol Roca Batalla

6-2 6-0#392Jack Kennedy

6-0 6-2—Robert Watzka

Maximilian Neuchrist

6W 9L

6-2 6-3#78Valentin Royer

7-5 6-3#415Olle Wallin

6-4 6-1#629Ramkumar Ramanathan

1-4 ret.—Matteo Fondriest

4-3 ret.#450Karim Bennani

6-4 4-1 ret.#282Yanki Erel

3-6 6-3 6-4#835Alibek Kachmazov

6-0 6-0—Raghav Harsh

6-2 6-2—Casper Nicolle

6-2 1-6 6-3#617Oleksandr Ovcharenko

6-3 6-7(6) 6-1#229Stefano Napolitano

7-6(5) 6-7(4) 7-6(6)#247Florent Bax

7-5 7-6(4)#229Stefano Napolitano

6-0 6-2—Claude Ishimwe

6-4 3-0 ret.#603Jacob Bradshaw

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

APAlex Marti PujolrasPujolras

Last 15

2–6

9 core stats · 1 even

Maximilian NeuchristNeuchristMN

Maximilian Neuchrist carries the stronger recent form — Alex Marti Pujolras's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 0–5

1st Serve In15/15 · 14/1559.1%+8.0pp67.1%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/1566.6%+6.5pp73.1%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/1539.9%+13.2pp53.1%

Aces / Match15/15 · 14/152.9+3.05.9

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/156.95.4 fewer1.5

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/1544.7%+10.5pp34.2%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/1554.3%+11.4pp42.9%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/1556.3%+9.0pp65.3%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/1550.2%—50.2%

Serve · 0–5

59.1%1st Serve In15/15 · 14/15+8.0pp67.1%

66.6%1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+6.5pp73.1%

39.9%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+13.2pp53.1%

2.9Aces / Match15/15 · 14/15+3.05.9

6.9Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/155.4 fewer1.5

Return · 1–0

44.7%Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+10.5pp34.2%

Pressure · 1–1

54.3%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/15+11.4pp42.9%

56.3%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/15+9.0pp65.3%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

50.2%Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/15—50.2%