United StatesBrownsburg - USAFinished

Predictions graded

Lloyd Harris #1792Mees Rottgering #416Netherlands0

Sets 7-5 · 6-4Thu 13 Aug 2026, 22:45 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions2–529%

Edges0–20%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageLloyd Harris · 237 places

Lloyd Harris

Reached a career-high No. 31 on 13 September 2021. He is currently No. 179, and his career results are strongest on hard courts.

Current ranking: #179
Peak ranking: #31 · 2021
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Mees Rottgering

Netherlands

Rottgering reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 411 in July 2026 and remains close to that mark. No reliable declared preferred surface was found.

Current ranking: #416
Peak ranking: #411 · 2026
Current age: 19
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Aug 2026, 22:08 · Europe/Bucharest

Rottgering's superior recent hard-court form and return metrics make him the likely winner over Harris.

Betting value lies in Rottgering on the moneyline and first-set winner, while avoiding the straight-set market. Expect a competitive match with over 21.5 total games and over 10.5 aces.

Context

Rottgering last15 hard-court record: 9-3, sets won 73.9%
- 7 of his last 10 wins were against opponents ranked outside the top 200
- Harris has a career hard-court win percentage of 64.1% and is ranked 179
Harris last15 hard-court record: 3-2, sets won 58.3%
- Harris last15 hard-court average total games per match: 22.4
- Harris has played 4 tiebreaks in his last 15 matches
Rottgering last15 return points won: 43.1% vs Harris 36.0%
- Rottgering last15 break point conversion: 47.5% vs Harris 36.0%
- Rottgering last15 hard-court return points won: 45.1%

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.75
The read
Rottgering's stronger recent hard-court form and superior return/break metrics give him a clear edge over Harris in this Bo3 match.
- Rottgering last15 overall record 10-5 (66.7%) vs Harris 7-8 (46.7%)
- Rottgering last15 hard-court record 9-3 (75%) vs Harris 3-2 (60%)
- Rottgering last15 return points won 43.1% vs Harris 36.0%
- Rottgering last15 break point conversion 47.5% vs Harris 36.0%
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostMees RottgeringEstimated chance62%

Games2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Harris's matches tend to be longer and more competitive, pushing the total games over 21.5.
- Harris last15 average total games per match 21.1
- Rottgering last15 average total games per match 18.1
- Harris last15 hard-court average total games 22.4
- Both players have competitive recent matches with multiple close sets
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have shown competitive first sets, making over 9.5 games likely.
- Harris last15 first-set average games 9.7
- Rottgering last15 first-set average games 8.9
- Harris has played 4 tiebreaks in last 15 matches
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.40
The read
Rottgering's higher set-win rate and strong recent starts make him the likely first-set winner.
- Rottgering last15 sets won 63.3% vs Harris 52.9%
- Rottgering last15 hard-court sets won 73.9% vs Harris 58.3%
- Rottgering won first set in 8 of last 10 matches
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostMees RottgeringEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Harris's strong serve and Rottgering's moderate ace count should push total aces over 10.5.
- Harris last15 aces per match 7.7
- Rottgering last15 aces per match 3.4
- Harris career aces 5577 in 649 matches (8.6 per match)
- Combined expected aces around 11.1
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 10.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Rottgering's higher double fault rate and Harris's occasional double faults make over 4.5 likely.
- Harris last15 double faults per match 1.5
- Rottgering last15 double faults per match 3.1
- Combined expected double faults around 4.6
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance55%

Previous match context available

Lloyd Harris

7W 8L

7-6(2) 6-1#394Andrew Fenty

0-6 6-3 6-4#149Dusan Lajovic

7-5 2-6 6-3#217Henry Searle

6-3 6-3#42Alex Michelsen

6-4 6-4#194Moez Echargui

7-6(5) 1-6 6-1#118Bu Yunchaokete

3-6 6-0 6-3#134Andrea Pellegrino

6-3 6-3#253Hugo Grenier

4-6 6-3 ret.#79Jaime Faria

6-4 6-2#144Mackenzie Mcdonald

6-4 6-4#149Dusan Lajovic

6-4 6-3#284Pierre-Hugues Herbert

6-2 6-1#170Marco Cecchinato

6-3 ret.#469Ivan Gakhov

5-7 7-6(6) 6-4#205Jerome Kym

Mees Rottgering

10W 5L

7-5 6-3#217Henry Searle 6-3 6-3#381Garrett Johns

6-2 6-3—Benjamin Kittay

7-5 6-4#267Abedallah Shelbayh

6-1 6-3#875Bryce Nakashima

6-3 6-3#241Yu Hsiou Hsu

6-4 6-4#326Fajing Sun

6-3 6-2#486Ozan Baris

7-5 ret.#530Timo Legout

6-2 6-4#708Evan Bynoe

6-1 6-2—Lev Seidman

6-1 6-1—Russell Lokko

7-6(2) 6-2#584Aidan Kim

5-7 6-3 6-4—Billy Suarez

6-4 2-0 ret.#121Kyrian Jacquet

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

LHLloyd HarrisHarris

Last 15

5–4

9 core stats · 0 even

Mees RottgeringRottgeringMR

Lloyd Harris carries the stronger recent form — Mees Rottgering's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In62.7%+6.6pp56.1%

1st Serve Won73.4%+1.6pp71.8%

2nd Serve Won47.3%+4.3pp51.6%

Aces / Match7.7+4.33.4

Double Faults / Match1.51.6 fewer3.1

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won36.0%+7.1pp43.1%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted36.0%+11.5pp47.5%

Break Pts Saved65.9%+8.5pp57.4%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won50.2%+2.7pp52.9%

Serve · 4–1

62.7%1st Serve In+6.6pp56.1%

73.4%1st Serve Won+1.6pp71.8%

47.3%2nd Serve Won+4.3pp51.6%

7.7Aces / Match+4.33.4

1.5Double Faults / Match1.6 fewer3.1

Return · 0–1

36.0%Return Pts Won+7.1pp43.1%

Pressure · 1–1

36.0%Break Pts Converted+11.5pp47.5%

65.9%Break Pts Saved+8.5pp57.4%

Points · 0–1

50.2%Total Pts Won+2.7pp52.9%