United StatesBrownsburg - USAFinished

Predictions graded

Lloyd Harris #1792Andrew Fenty #394United States0

Sets 7-6 · 6-1Wed 12 Aug 2026, 14:00 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions2–529%

Edges0–30%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageLloyd Harris · 215 places

Lloyd Harris

Reached a career-high No. 31 on 13 September 2021. He is currently No. 179, and his career results are strongest on hard courts.

Current ranking: #179
Peak ranking: #31 · 2021
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Andrew Fenty

United States

Fenty reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 382 on 8 June 2026. The ITF lists hard courts as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #394
Peak ranking: #382 · 2026
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Aug 2026, 00:12 · Europe/Bucharest

Andrew Fenty's dominant recent hard-court form, driven by superior return stats and break-point conversion, gives him a clear edge over Lloyd Harris.

Back Fenty to win at 3.75 and consider Fenty 2-0 at 7.00, while avoiding Harris at short odds. The total games over 21.5 is also a solid play in a competitive match.

Context

Fenty last 15 on hard: 10-5 record, 60.3% games won (167-110).
- Harris last 15 on hard: 3-2 record, 51.7% games won (60-56).
- Fenty's return points won (43.1%) and break conversion (44.6%) far exceed Harris's (35.4% and 38.7%) on hard.
Harris last 15 overall: 7-8 record, 50.3% games won (161-159).
- Return points won: 35.1% overall, break points converted: 36.0%.
- First-serve points won: 73.2%, keeping him competitive in many matches.
13 July 2026: retired vs. Jeff Wolf at 6-7(11) 4-1 ret.
- 30 June 2026: retired vs. Edward Winter at 3-0 ret.
- No other retirements in the last 15, but two recent physical issues raise a flag.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 3.75
The read
Fenty's superior recent form on hard courts, driven by a much higher return points won rate and break point conversion, gives him a clear edge over Harris, whose last 15 hard-court sample is smaller but less dominant.
- Andrew Fenty last 15 overall record: 10-5 (66.7%), Lloyd Harris 7-8 (46.7%)
- Fenty last 15 on hard: 10-5, 60.3% games won; Harris last 15 on hard: 3-2, 51.7% games won
- Fenty return points won last 15: 43.1%; Harris: 35.1%
- Fenty break point conversion last 15: 44.6%; Harris: 36.0%
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostAndrew FentyEstimated chance62%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Despite Fenty's recent dominance, Harris's serve and hard-court pedigree should keep sets competitive, pushing the total games over 21.5 in a best-of-3 match.
- Harris last 15 hard-court matches: average 23.2 games per match (116 games in 5 matches)
- Fenty last 15 hard-court matches: average 18.5 games per match (277 games in 15 matches), but 7 of 15 went over 21.5
- Harris career hard-court win%: 64%; Fenty: 56.4%, suggesting competitive baseline
- Both players have first-serve win% around 70-75% on hard, limiting quick breaks
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players hold serve effectively early in matches, making a tight first set with at least 10 games likely.
- Harris last 15 hard-court set1 average: 10.2 games (51 games in 5 sets)
- Fenty last 15 hard-court set1 average: 9.1 games (137 games in 15 sets), but 10 of 15 sets had 10+ games
- Both players have first-serve win% ~74% on hard in last 15, reducing early breaks
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance62%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 3.00
The read
Fenty's strong first-set record in recent matches, combined with his superior return game on hard courts, makes him likely to start fast against Harris.
- Fenty last 15 first set win rate: 73.3% (11-4); Harris: 53.3% (8-7)
- Fenty last 15 on hard: 60.3% games won; Harris: 51.7%
- Fenty return points won last 15: 43.1%; Harris: 35.1%
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostAndrew FentyEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Harris's high ace rate, especially on hard courts, combined with Fenty's moderate ace output, should push the total over 11.5 in a competitive match.
- Harris last 15 aces per match: 7.5 (113 in 15); on hard: 6.4 per match
- Fenty last 15 aces per match: 4.1 (62 in 15); on hard: 4.1 per match
- Combined average aces per match: 11.6, with Harris capable of double-digit aces on hard
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 11.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Fenty's high double-fault rate (3.1 per match) alone nearly covers the line, and Harris adds enough to push the total over 4.5.
- Fenty last 15 double faults per match: 3.1 (46 in 15); on hard: 3.1
- Harris last 15 double faults per match: 1.5 (22 in 15); on hard: 2.0
- Combined average double faults per match: 4.6, with Fenty prone to multiple double faults
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance58%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Harris's short odds heavily overrate his ranking and career record against Fenty's superior recent hard-court form.

Previous match context available

Lloyd Harris

7W 8L

0-6 6-3 6-4#149Dusan Lajovic

7-5 2-6 6-3#217Henry Searle

6-3 6-3#42Alex Michelsen

6-4 6-4#194Moez Echargui

7-6(5) 1-6 6-1#118Bu Yunchaokete

3-6 6-0 6-3#134Andrea Pellegrino

6-3 6-3#253Hugo Grenier

4-6 6-3 ret.#79Jaime Faria

6-4 6-2#144Mackenzie Mcdonald

6-4 6-4#149Dusan Lajovic

6-4 6-3#284Pierre-Hugues Herbert

6-2 6-1#170Marco Cecchinato

6-3 ret.#469Ivan Gakhov

5-7 7-6(6) 6-4#205Jerome Kym

7-5 7-5#236Alejandro Moro Canas

Andrew Fenty

10W 5L

6-1 6-4#840Evan King

6-4 6-1—Eli Dieveney

6-7(11) 4-1 ret.#282Jeff Wolf

3-0 ret.#348Edward Winter

6-4 6-1#415Masamichi Imamura

6-3 6-3#482Karl Poling

3-6 6-3 7-6(4)#552Gavin Young

6-3 6-4#216Braden Shick

6-4 6-2#484Enzo Aguiard

6-2 6-3—Victor Tosetto

6-3 1-6 6-3#486Ozan Baris

6-2 6-1—Lucas Marionneau

6-3 6-3—Thanaphat Boosarawongse

6-1 4-6 6-1#530Timo Legout

6-4 6-4#876Sebastian Gorzny

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

LHLloyd HarrisHarris

Last 15

4–5

9 core stats · 0 even

Andrew FentyFentyAF

Andrew Fenty carries the stronger recent form — Lloyd Harris's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In62.7%+0.8pp63.5%

1st Serve Won73.2%+2.8pp70.4%

2nd Serve Won48.7%+6.8pp55.5%

Aces / Match7.5+3.44.1

Double Faults / Match1.51.6 fewer3.1

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won35.1%+8.0pp43.1%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted36.0%+8.6pp44.6%

Break Pts Saved66.7%+2.0pp64.7%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won49.9%+4.2pp54.1%

Serve · 3–2

62.7%1st Serve In+0.8pp63.5%

73.2%1st Serve Won+2.8pp70.4%

48.7%2nd Serve Won+6.8pp55.5%

7.5Aces / Match+3.44.1

1.5Double Faults / Match1.6 fewer3.1

Return · 0–1

35.1%Return Pts Won+8.0pp43.1%

Pressure · 1–1

36.0%Break Pts Converted+8.6pp44.6%

66.7%Break Pts Saved+2.0pp64.7%

Points · 0–1

49.9%Total Pts Won+4.2pp54.1%