Garrett Johns #381United States00 – 2Mees Rottgering #416Netherlands2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50

The read

Rottgering's superior recent hard-court form (70% win rate vs 42.9%) and stronger return game (45.3% return points won) give him a clear edge in this Bo3 qualifying match.

• Rottgering's last-15 overall record: 9-6 (60%), Johns: 7-8 (46.7%)
• On hard courts last 15: Rottgering 7-3 (70%), Johns 3-4 (42.9%)
• Rottgering return points won on hard: 45.3% vs Johns 37.1%
• Rottgering break point conversion on hard: 49.3% vs Johns 50%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Rottgering's superior hard-court game win percentage (58.6% vs 50.6%) and his tendency to win by comfortable margins (5.6-game average in wins) support a -2.5 game handicap.

• Rottgering last-15 hard-court games won: 58.6%, Johns: 50.6%
• Rottgering average margin of victory in last 5 wins: 5.6 games
• Johns average margin of defeat in last 5 losses: 5.2 games
• Rottgering won 7 of last 10 hard-court matches by 3+ games

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.55

The read

Rottgering's dominant hard-court set win rate (68.4%) and superior return game suggest he is likely to take the opening set against Johns, who has dropped the first set in three of his last five matches.

• Rottgering first-set win conversion career: 89%, Johns: 89%
• Rottgering last-15 hard-court sets won: 68.4%, Johns: 47.4%
• Rottgering hard-court return points won: 45.3%, Johns: 37.1%
• Johns lost first set in 3 of last 5 matches

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

The combined hard-court ace average of 7.0 per match and Johns' tendency to serve 4+ aces in most recent hard-court matches support over 6.5 total aces.

• Johns last-15 aces per match: 3.1, hard-court: 3.9
• Rottgering last-15 aces per match: 3.5, hard-court: 3.1
• Combined hard-court ace average: 7.0 per match
• Johns served 4+ aces in 4 of last 7 hard-court matches

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

With both players averaging over 3 double faults per match on hard courts, the combined average of 6.8 makes over 5.5 double faults likely.

• Johns last-15 double faults per match: 2.5, hard-court: 3.4
• Rottgering last-15 double faults per match: 3.4, hard-court: 3.4
• Combined hard-court double fault average: 6.8 per match
• Both players exceed 2.5 double faults per match on hard courts