United StatesBrownsburg - USAFinished

Predictions graded

Henry Searle #217United Kingdom0Mees Rottgering #416Netherlands2

Sets 5-7 · 3-6Wed 12 Aug 2026, 14:00 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions2–433%

Edges1–325%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageHenry Searle · 199 places

Henry Searle

United Kingdom

Searle reached a career-high No. 214 in July 2026. The British left-hander won the Dublin Challenger on grass in June 2026; no reliable declared preferred surface was found.

Current ranking: #217
Peak ranking: #214 · 2026
Current age: 20
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 193 cm

Mees Rottgering

Netherlands

Rottgering reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 411 in July 2026 and remains close to that mark. No reliable declared preferred surface was found.

Current ranking: #416
Peak ranking: #411 · 2026
Current age: 19
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Aug 2026, 00:27 · Europe/Bucharest

Searle's strong overall form (12-3) is offset by a poor hard-court record (1-2), while Rottgering excels on hard courts (8-3) with a dangerous return game.

The match winner market overvalues Searle at 1.44, making the over 9.5 games in set one (1.91) a better value play. Expect a competitive match with potential for a tiebreak, but avoid backing either player in straight sets.

Context

Searle's last-15 hard-court record is 1-2 (33.3%) from only 3 matches, with 52.1% total points won.
- His last-15 overall record is 12-3 (80%), but 11 of those wins came on grass.
- On hard courts, his first-serve points won drops to 74.1% from 79.1% overall, and break points saved falls to 70.6% from 84.1%.
Rottgering's last-15 hard-court record is 8-3 (72.7%) from 11 matches, with 54.2% total points won.
- He wins 45.8% of return points on hard courts and converts 50% of break points.
- His last two matches in this tournament were straight-set wins over Johns (rank 381) and Kittay (unranked).
Searle's last-15 break-point save rate is 84.1% (53/63), but on hard courts it drops to 70.6% (12/17).
- Rottgering's hard-court return points won is 45.8%, and he converts 50% of break points (37/74).
- Searle's second-serve points won on hard courts is 55.4%, which Rottgering can attack.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

Henry Searle

1.44fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 69.4%

0.0ppshort

Searle's superior overall form and ranking give him an edge, but the model estimate of 62% is below the implied 69.4%, making the odds unattractive.

Set 1 WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

Henry Searle

1.50fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 66.7%

0.0ppshort

Searle's serve dominance (79.1% first-serve points won) gives him an edge in set 1, though Rottgering's strong return game on hard courts (45.8%) keeps it competitive.

Set BettinglostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Henry Searle 2-0

2.00fair 1.82

BetBugs 42% · Market 50%

0.0ppshort

Searle's superior break-point saving and set-win percentage on a fast hard court give him a clear edge in straight sets.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Searle's superior overall recent form (80% win rate vs 66.7%) and higher ranking (217 vs 416) give him an edge, though Rottgering's hard-court sample is larger and positive. Searle's lefty serve and strong grass form may translate to hard courts.
- Searle's last15 overall record: 12-3 (80%), with 57.8% games won and 53.9% total points won.
- Rottgering's last15 overall record: 10-5 (66.7%), with 56.5% games won and 53% total points won.
- Searle's last15 hard-court record: 1-2 (33.3%) in only 3 matches, but his overall form is strong from grass.
- Rottgering's last15 hard-court record: 8-3 (72.7%) in 11 matches, with 54.2% total points won and 45.8% return points won.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostHenry SearleEstimated chance62%

Games2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Searle's matches tend to be longer (23.5 avg games), and his hard-court matches averaged 25.3 games. Rottgering's quick wins lower the average, but a competitive match between two in-form players should exceed 21.5 games.
- Searle's last15 average games per match: 23.5 (353 games / 15 matches).
- Rottgering's last15 average games per match: 17.9 (269 games / 15 matches), but his hard-court matches average 17.0 games.
- Searle's last15 hard-court matches averaged 25.3 games (76 games / 3 matches).
- Both players have first-set win conversion rates of 89%, indicating competitive starts.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.91
The read
With both players converting first sets at 89%, the opening set is likely to be close. Searle's sets average over 10 games, and Rottgering's hard-court sets are just under 9, so over 9.5 is a reasonable expectation.
- Searle's last15 average games per set: 10.1 (353 games / 35 sets).
- Rottgering's last15 average games per set: 9.0 (269 games / 30 sets), but hard-court sets average 8.9.
- Both players have high first-set win rates, suggesting tight opening sets.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Searle's serve dominance (79.1% first-serve points won) gives him an edge in set 1, though Rottgering's strong return game on hard courts (45.8%) keeps it competitive. Searle's higher ranking and overall form tilt the first set in his favor.
- Searle's first-set win conversion: 89% career; Rottgering's: 89% career.
- Searle's last15 first-serve points won: 79.1%; Rottgering's: 71.9%.
- Searle's last15 return points won: 37.7%; Rottgering's: 43.6% (hard-court: 45.8%).
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostHenry SearleEstimated chance60%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Searle's price implies a 69.4% win probability, but his recent hard-court form (1-2) and Rottgering's strong hard-court results (8-3) suggest the true probability is closer to 62%, making the favorite overvalued.

Previous match context available

Henry Searle

12W 3L

7-5 2-6 6-3#179Lloyd Harris

6-4 6-4#202Clement Chidekh

7-5 6-2#250Max Basing

6-4 7-5#315Johannus Monday

6-3 6-2#679Amit Vales

6-4 6-7(2) 6-3#408Patrick Zahraj

7-6(5) 7-6(5)#120Vilius Gaubas

6-3 6-4#156Zhizhen Zhang

6-4 6-2#132Jurij Rodionov

4-6 6-2 6-2#121Kyrian Jacquet

7-5 3-6 6-1#175Alexis Galarneau

6-4 7-6(3)#241Yu Hsiou Hsu

7-6(3) 7-6(5)#208Elias Ymer

7-6(2) 3-6 6-3#482Karl Poling

6-2 6-2#309Hayato Matsuoka

Mees Rottgering

10W 5L

6-3 6-3#381Garrett Johns

6-2 6-3—Benjamin Kittay

7-5 6-4#267Abedallah Shelbayh

6-1 6-3#875Bryce Nakashima

6-3 6-3#241Yu Hsiou Hsu

6-4 6-4#326Fajing Sun

6-3 6-2#486Ozan Baris

7-5 ret.#530Timo Legout

6-2 6-4#708Evan Bynoe

6-1 6-2—Lev Seidman

6-1 6-1—Russell Lokko

7-6(2) 6-2#584Aidan Kim

5-7 6-3 6-4—Billy Suarez

6-4 2-0 ret.#121Kyrian Jacquet

6-4 6-2#893Peter Buldorini

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

HSHenry SearleSearle

Last 15

7–2

9 core stats · 0 even

Mees RottgeringRottgeringMR

Henry Searle carries the stronger recent form — Mees Rottgering's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 5–0

1st Serve In61.8%+6.0pp55.8%

1st Serve Won79.1%+7.2pp71.9%

2nd Serve Won57.4%+6.3pp51.1%

Aces / Match6.7+3.23.5

Double Faults / Match2.11.1 fewer3.2

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won37.7%+5.9pp43.6%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted40.7%+6.3pp47.0%

Break Pts Saved84.1%+25.5pp58.6%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won53.9%+0.9pp53.0%

Serve · 5–0

61.8%1st Serve In+6.0pp55.8%

79.1%1st Serve Won+7.2pp71.9%

57.4%2nd Serve Won+6.3pp51.1%

6.7Aces / Match+3.23.5

2.1Double Faults / Match1.1 fewer3.2

Return · 0–1

37.7%Return Pts Won+5.9pp43.6%

Pressure · 1–1

40.7%Break Pts Converted+6.3pp47.0%

84.1%Break Pts Saved+25.5pp58.6%

Points · 1–0

53.9%Total Pts Won+0.9pp53.0%