Eduardo Ribeiro #372Brazil22 – 0Max Alcala Gurri #171Spain0

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.18

The read

Alcala Gurri's dominant recent clay form (11-4, 58.8% games won) and superior return game (46.8% return points won) give him a clear edge over Ribeiro's 6-9 record and weaker return stats.

• Last 15 on clay: Alcala Gurri 11-4 (73.3%) vs Ribeiro 6-9 (40%).
• Alcala Gurri won 58.8% of games in last 15 clay matches; Ribeiro 50.2%.
• Alcala Gurri return points won 46.8% vs Ribeiro 40.7% in last 15.
• Ranking edge: Alcala Gurri #171 vs Ribeiro #372.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both players' recent matches average around 21 total games, and Alcala Gurri's straight-set dominance suggests a match under 21.5 games is likely.

• Alcala Gurri's last 15 clay matches averaged 21.2 total games.
• Ribeiro's last 15 clay matches averaged 21.8 total games.
• Alcala Gurri won 8 of last 15 matches in straight sets with ≤20 games.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Alcala Gurri's comfortable wins often exceed a 3.5-game margin, while Ribeiro's losses are frequently by 4+ games.

• Alcala Gurri's average game margin in wins: +5.2 games.
• Ribeiro's average game margin in losses: -4.8 games.
• Alcala Gurri covered -3.5 in 8 of 11 wins.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

First sets in their recent matches often end 6-3 or 6-4, with an average under 9.5 games, though variance is high.

• Alcala Gurri's last 15 first sets: 6-3, 6-3, 6-2, 4-6, 6-1, 6-4, 6-0, 3-6, 6-7, 2-6, 6-2, 7-6, 7-6, 6-3, 6-2.
• Ribeiro's last 15 first sets: 5-7, 1-6, 6-2, 4-6, 6-4, 5-7, 3-6, 6-1, 6-0, 6-3, 6-7, 6-4, 6-3, 6-7, 6-4.
• Combined average first-set games: ~9.2.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Second sets also trend toward 9.5 games or fewer, with many 6-3 or 6-4 scorelines, though confidence is limited by occasional tiebreaks.

• Alcala Gurri's last 15 second sets: 6-3, 7-6, 6-0, 7-5, 6-3, 6-2, 6-2, 4-6, 3-6, 4-6, 7-5, 6-1, 6-1, 6-2, 6-7.
• Ribeiro's last 15 second sets: 2-6, 4-6, 7-5, 4-6, 6-4, 2-6, 6-7, 6-2, 4-6, 7-5, 5-7, 6-4, 7-6, 6-7, 4-6.
• Combined average second-set games: ~9.3.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.29

The read

Alcala Gurri's strong start tendency (87% career first-set win conversion) and Ribeiro's frequent first-set losses make Alcala Gurri the likely set 1 winner.

• Alcala Gurri won 73.3% of last 15 matches, often in straight sets.
• Ribeiro lost first set in 9 of last 15 matches.
• Alcala Gurri's first-set win conversion career: 87%.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60

The read

Alcala Gurri's dominance in straight sets and Ribeiro's struggles to force deciders make a 2-0 win for Alcala Gurri the most likely exact score.

• Alcala Gurri won 8 of last 15 matches 2-0.
• Ribeiro lost 9 of last 15 matches 0-2.
• Alcala Gurri's games won %: 58.8% vs Ribeiro's 50.2%.