MexicoATP Los CabosFinished

Predictions graded

Jenson Brooksby #77United States2Corentin Moutet #57France0

Sets 6-4 · 6-4Wed 29 Jul 2026, 02:40 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions1–614%

Edges0–40%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageCorentin Moutet · 20 places

Jenson Brooksby

United States

Reached career-high No. 33 in June 2022. He won his first ATP Tour title in Houston in 2025; his March 2023 wrist surgery is background history, with no current Los Cabos report identifying it as active.

Current ranking: #77
Peak ranking: #33 · 2022
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Corentin Moutet

France

Reached career-high No. 30 in April 2026 and says he likes all surfaces. He reported lingering hand-fracture pain at Roland Garros in May, but no current Los Cabos source confirms that it remains active.

Current ranking: #57
Peak ranking: #30 · 2026
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: All surfaces
Hand: Left handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 28 Jul 2026, 09:46 · Europe/Bucharest

Corentin Moutet holds a structural edge over Jenson Brooksby based on a dominant hard-court H2H win and superior recent return and serve stats.

Both players are inconsistent, but Moutet's 58% win probability offers value at 1.95 odds, while the match is expected to be competitive with over 22.5 games likely. Betting angles favor Moutet on the moneyline and the over on total games, with low ace counts making under 8.5 aces attractive.

Context

Moutet won 6-2, 6-1 in their only H2H, on hard court in July 2025.
- Moutet won 60% of return points and converted 43% of break points in that match.
- Brooksby won only 30% of return points and 50% of first-serve points.
Brooksby's last 15 includes just 1 hard-court match: a 7-5, 6-2 loss to Bergs in March 2026.
- On hard court in that window, he won only 44% of total points and 33% of return points.
- His overall last-15 record is 4-11, with all 4 wins coming on grass.
Moutet lost to Davidovich Fokina, Shelbayh, and Giron in his last three grass matches.
- He has not played a competitive match in 28 days.
- His last-15 record is 4-11, identical to Brooksby's.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.95
The read
Moutet's superior return stats and dominant H2H on hard court give him a structural edge, despite both players having similar recent form.
- H2H: Moutet won their only meeting 6-2 6-1 on hard in July 2025, dominating serve and return.
- Last 15 overall: Moutet has a higher total points won (49.0% vs 47.7%) and return points won (38.2% vs 35.9%).
- Hard court last 15: Brooksby's only hard match in window was a straight-set loss; Moutet has a 5-6 hard record in 2026.
- Recent form: Brooksby's last 5 includes 3 wins on grass but a loss to Sinner; Moutet lost last 3 on grass but had a month reset.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostCorentin MoutetEstimated chance58%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Recent first-set game averages for both players are near or above 10, making over 9.5 likely in a matchup of evenly matched returners.
- Last 15: Brooksby's first sets average 9.7 games (145 games / 15 matches); Moutet's average 10.1 games (152/15).
- Both have similar first-serve points won percentages (63.6% vs 66.9%), not dominant enough for quick sets.
- H2H: The only set was 6-2, but that was over a year ago; current form suggests tighter sets.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
With both players struggling for wins, matches tend to be closer; their combined game averages support a total above 21.5.
- Last 15 overall: Brooksby's matches average 23.0 games (345 games / 15 matches); Moutet's average 25.2 games (378/15).
- Both players have low win rates (26.7%) in last 15, leading to competitive sets.
- Hard court: Brooksby's only recent hard match had 20 games; Moutet's 2026 hard matches likely average over 22 games.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Moutet's superior hard-court form and dominant H2H suggest he can cover a small handicap, though recent inconsistency keeps confidence low.
- H2H: Moutet won by 9 games (12-3) in their only meeting.
- Last 15: Moutet's average game margin per match is -0.4, Brooksby's is -2.6, indicating Moutet is more competitive.
- Hard court: Moutet's 2026 hard record is 5-6, Brooksby's is 0-1 with a -13 game differential.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostCorentin Moutet -1.5Estimated chance52%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.90
The read
Moutet's better first-serve and return numbers in recent matches suggest he can start stronger, though confidence is low due to both players' inconsistency.
- H2H: Moutet won the first set 6-2 in their only meeting.
- Last 15 overall: Moutet's return points won (38.2%) is higher than Brooksby's (35.9%), aiding early breaks.
- Brooksby's last 15 first serve points won is 63.6%, below Moutet's 66.9%.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostCorentin MoutetEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players are low-volume ace hitters, and their recent averages sum well below 8.5, making the under probable.
- Last 15: Brooksby averages 2.8 aces per match, Moutet 2.6; combined average 5.4.
- Hard court: Brooksby had 3 aces in his only recent hard match; Moutet's hard court ace rate is likely similar to overall.
- Career: Brooksby 650 aces in 315 matches (2.1 per match), Moutet 1178 in 613 (1.9 per match).
BetBugs · Total AcesUnder 8.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Moutet's higher double-fault rate and the H2H evidence push the combined total near the over line, with a slight edge above 3.5.
- Last 15: Brooksby averages 1.1 double faults per match, Moutet 2.3; combined average 3.4.
- H2H: Moutet had 5 double faults in their only match, Brooksby 1.
- Hard court: Brooksby had 3 double faults in his only recent hard match; Moutet's hard court rate is likely similar to overall.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 3.5Estimated chance60%

Prediction history

Corentin Moutet has been unreliable when projected to win

In 7 matches where Corentin Moutet was predicted to win, he fulfilled only 2 predictions. The average estimated probability was 59.7%, expecting about 4 wins, but he lost 5 of those matches. His current probability of 58% is within the historical range of 54–65%.

Recent evidence for Corentin Moutet7 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

30 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#36Corentin Moutet1-3#86Marcos Giron

BetBugsCorentin Moutet to win·55%

Missed

30 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#36Corentin Moutet1-3#86Marcos Giron

Corentin Moutet to win

55%probability

Marcos Giron won

Missed

9 Jun·ATP Stuttgart

#835Nick Kyrgios2-0#34Corentin Moutet

BetBugsCorentin Moutet to win·62%

Missed

9 Jun 2026

ATP Stuttgart

#835Nick Kyrgios2-0#34Corentin Moutet

Corentin Moutet to win

62%probability

Nick Kyrgios won

Missed

26 May·ATP Roland Garros

#63Vit Kopriva3-2#32Corentin Moutet

BetBugsCorentin Moutet to win·62%

Missed

26 May 2026

ATP Roland Garros

#63Vit Kopriva3-2#32Corentin Moutet

Corentin Moutet to win

62%probability

Vit Kopriva won

Missed

9 May·ATP Rome

#30Corentin Moutet1-2#139Pablo Llamas Ruiz

BetBugsCorentin Moutet to win·65%

Missed

9 May 2026

ATP Rome

#30Corentin Moutet1-2#139Pablo Llamas Ruiz

Corentin Moutet to win

65%probability

Pablo Llamas Ruiz won

Missed

25 Apr·Madrid

#102Daniel Merida Aguilar2-0#30Corentin Moutet

BetBugsCorentin Moutet to win·58%

Missed

25 Apr 2026

Madrid

#102Daniel Merida Aguilar2-0#30Corentin Moutet

Corentin Moutet to win

58%probability

Daniel Merida Aguilar won

Missed

Head-to-Head

0-1 (1 meetings)

L6-2 6-1Jenson Brooksby#77vCorentin Moutet#57Jul 29, 2025

1 total meetings

Jenson Brooksby

4W 11L

6-4 6-3 6-4#1Jannik Sinner

6-2 6-2 6-3#34Ignacio Buse

7-6(7) 6-1 6-1#105Aleksandar Vukic

6-3 6-2#29Ugo Humbert

7-5 6-1#105Aleksandar Vukic

6-0 6-4#20Francisco Cerundolo

6-4 3-6 6-3#104Martin Damm

7-6(4) 5-7 6-1#156Zhizhen Zhang

6-4 6-4 6-4#44Mariano Navone

6-3 7-5#13Casper Ruud

6-2 7-5#74Alex Molcan

6-3 7-6(8)#53Sebastian Baez

6-3 7-5#97Emilio Nava

6-4 6-2#145Mackenzie Mcdonald

7-5 6-2#36Zizou Bergs

Corentin Moutet

4W 11L

4-6 6-4 7-5 6-4#85Marcos Giron

7-5 6-4#269Abedallah Shelbayh

6-4 6-3#25Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

6-7(5) 6-4 7-6(5)#87Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

6-3 6-4#899Nick Kyrgios

6-3 5-7 6-4 3-6 6-3#70Vit Kopriva

6-4 6-4#25Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

6-4 3-6 7-6(4)#129Pablo Llamas Ruiz

6-3 6-4#61Daniel Merida Aguilar

6-3 6-4#15Lorenzo Musetti

6-4 6-4#34Ignacio Buse

7-5 6-3#13Casper Ruud

6-4 6-1#132Alexandre Muller

4-6 6-3 6-4#91Marco Trungelliti

6-0 6-2#546Taha Baadi

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

JBJenson BrooksbyBrooksby

Last 15

3–5

9 core stats · 1 even

Corentin MoutetMoutetCM

Corentin Moutet carries the stronger recent form — Jenson Brooksby's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In69.8%+5.7pp64.1%

1st Serve Won63.6%+3.3pp66.9%

2nd Serve Won47.9%+1.7pp49.6%

Aces / Match2.8—2.6

Double Faults / Match1.11.2 fewer2.3

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won35.9%+2.3pp38.2%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted40.0%+2.5pp37.5%

Break Pts Saved53.0%+2.5pp55.5%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won47.7%+1.3pp49.0%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

69.8%1st Serve In+5.7pp64.1%

63.6%1st Serve Won+3.3pp66.9%

47.9%2nd Serve Won+1.7pp49.6%

2.8Aces / Match—2.6

1.1Double Faults / Match1.2 fewer2.3

Return · 0–1

35.9%Return Pts Won+2.3pp38.2%

Pressure · 1–1

40.0%Break Pts Converted+2.5pp37.5%

53.0%Break Pts Saved+2.5pp55.5%

Points · 0–1

47.7%Total Pts Won+1.3pp49.0%

Jenson Brooksby #77United States2Corentin Moutet #57France0

Player Profiles

Jenson Brooksby

Corentin Moutet

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 22.5

Corentin Moutet

Corentin Moutet

Corentin Moutet 2-1

BetBugs probabilities

Result0 of 1 landed

Games1 of 3 landed

Sets0 of 1 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Corentin Moutet has been unreliable when projected to win

Head-to-Head

Jenson Brooksby

Corentin Moutet

Stat Battle