Vit Kopriva #63Czechia33 – 2Corentin Moutet #32France2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

The combination of solid serving and clay-court dynamics in a best-of-five format points to a longer match with over 35.5 games.

• Both players have high break point save rates (Moutet 59.6%, Kopriva 57.3%), indicating many holds and potential tiebreaks.
• In Bo5 clay matches, average total games often exceed 35 when players are closely matched.
• Kopriva's recent matches average 20.5 games per Bo3 match, projecting to over 35 in Bo5.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Kopriva's ability to keep matches close, even in defeat, supports covering a +5.5 game handicap.

• Kopriva's recent losses have been competitive, with an average game differential of -5.2 in his last 5 losses.
• Moutet's wins have an average margin of +4.8 games, but against weaker opponents.
• In a Bo5 match, a +5.5 handicap covers a close four-set or five-set loss.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Historical patterns show second sets often extend past 9.5 games as players adjust, though confidence is low due to variability.

• Kopriva's second sets in last 5 matches averaged 9.2 games, with 2 over 9.5.
• Moutet's second sets averaged 9.0 games, with 2 over 9.5.
• Both players tend to settle into service holds after the first set.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

The competitive balance and Bo5 format suggest at least 4 sets, with both players capable of extending the match.

• Kopriva has a 61% deciding set win rate, showing resilience in tight matches.
• Moutet has a 56% deciding set win rate and has played multiple three-set matches recently.
• No H2H history, but both players have similar rankings and clay-court proficiency.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

Extrapolating from Bo3 ace rates, over 12.5 aces is plausible in a longer match, though neither player is a big server.

• Kopriva has a 4% career ace rate, averaging about 4 aces per Bo3 match.
• Moutet has a 2.7% ace rate, averaging about 3 aces per Bo3 match.
• In a Bo5 match, combined aces could reach 12-15 based on extrapolation.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

Both players have similar double fault rates, and a longer match increases the likelihood of over 8.5 double faults.

• Kopriva has a 4.1% double fault rate, averaging about 4 per Bo3 match.
• Moutet has a 4% double fault rate, averaging about 4 per Bo3 match.
• In a Bo5 match, combined double faults could exceed 8.5 based on career rates.