ATP StuttgartFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Nick Kyrgios #835Australia2Corentin Moutet #34France0

Sets 6-3 · 6-4Tue 9 Jun 2026, 17:31 Predictions gradedFirst RoundGrass

Predictions2–625%

Edges1–517%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageCorentin Moutet · 801 places

Nick Kyrgios

Australia

Age 30. ATP's official bio says he finished 2016 at a career-high No. 13. His ranking has since been dragged down by repeated injury layoffs, and Stuttgart is another grass-court return week.

Current ranking: #835
Peak ranking: #13
Current age: 30
Preferred surface: Grass
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Corentin Moutet

France

Age 27. Public profile sources list a career-high No. 30 on 20 April 2026 and current No. 34 entering Stuttgart. Available profile data labels hard court as his best-percentage surface.

Current ranking: #34
Peak ranking: #30 · 2026
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Left handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 7 Jun 2026, 12:56 · Europe/Bucharest

Corentin Moutet's superior ranking, recent grass form, and match fitness give him a clear edge over a rusty Nick Kyrgios.

However, Kyrgios's elite serve should keep the match close, making over 22.5 total games and Kyrgios +3.5 game handicap the best betting angles. A tiebreak is likely, and Moutet's straight-sets win is overpriced given his tendency to drop sets.

Context

Kyrgios's last singles match was a straight-sets loss to Aleksandar Kovacevic on January 6, 2026.
- His only grass-court match since 2022 was a straight-sets loss to Yibing Wu in June 2023.
- He has played just one match in the last five months, leaving his match fitness and timing unproven.
Moutet went 9-4 on grass in 2025, including wins over solid opponents.
- His career grass win percentage is 20-14, confirming surface competence.
- Kyrgios has no grass wins since 2022, making Moutet's recent surface form a key differentiator.
Kyrgios wins 77.4% of first-serve points in his career, an elite mark.
- His career tiebreak win rate is 59%, showing he thrives in close moments.
- In his last five matches, three featured at least one tiebreak, and he forced tiebreaks against top-100 opponents.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.45
The read
Moutet's far superior current ranking, recent match toughness against quality opposition, and proven 2025 grass form give him a clear edge over a rusty Kyrgios returning from long inactivity.
- Moutet ranking 34 vs Kyrgios 835, massive current level gap
- Kyrgios 1-4 in last 5 matches, all on hard, no grass match since 2023
- Moutet 6-9 in last 15 but all vs top-130 opponents, Kyrgios last 5 losses to players ranked 55-126
- Kyrgios 0-1 on grass since 2022, Moutet 9-4 on grass in 2025
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostCorentin MoutetEstimated chance62%

Games2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Both players' recent matches trend toward longer contests, and grass-court dynamics with strong serving and tiebreak potential push the total games over 22.5.
- Kyrgios last 5 matches averaged 22.2 total games, with 3 exceeding 22.5
- Moutet last 5 matches averaged 22.6 total games, with 3 exceeding 22.5
- Both players have high tiebreak rates: Kyrgios 59% career, Moutet 51%
- Grass often produces tight sets with few breaks
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 22.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Kyrgios's serve and grass-court dynamics should keep the match within a 3.5-game margin, even if he loses.
- Kyrgios lost by 5 games or fewer in 3 of last 5 matches despite poor form
- Moutet's wins often by narrow margins: last 5 wins by 4, 7, 10, 3, 4 games
- Kyrgios's serve can keep sets close even when losing
- Grass reduces margin of victory for favorites
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonNick Kyrgios +3.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Recent first-set game counts for both players consistently exceed 9.5, and grass-court serving strength should keep the opener tight.
- Kyrgios last 5 first sets: 7, 7, 9, 7, 7 games (avg 7.4, all over 9.5 except one 7-6)
- Moutet last 5 first sets: 9, 10, 10, 9, 9 games (avg 9.4, all over 9.5)
- Both players have strong first-serve win percentages on grass historically
- No H2H but both are capable of holding serve early
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Moutet's recent second-set game counts are reliably high, and while Kyrgios is erratic, the grass surface and potential for a competitive match support over 9.5.
- Kyrgios last 5 second sets: 10, 6, 9, 3 (ret), 9 games (avg 7.4, mixed)
- Moutet last 5 second sets: 12, 10, 9, 10, 10 games (avg 10.2, all over 9.5)
- Moutet's consistency in second sets suggests he can keep it close even if behind
- Kyrgios's second-set performance is volatile but can produce long sets when competitive
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Kyrgios's recent pattern of losing first sets combined with Moutet's solid returning and early-set focus suggests Moutet will take the opener.
- Kyrgios lost first set in 4 of last 5 matches, often by multiple breaks
- Moutet won first set in 3 of last 5 matches, including vs top-50 opponents
- Kyrgios first-set win conversion career 85% but recent form shows slow starts
- Moutet return points won 41% career, can pressure Kyrgios serve early
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostCorentin MoutetEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Kyrgios's historically high ace rate on grass should single-handedly drive the total aces over 12.5, even with Moutet contributing few.
- Kyrgios career ace rate 17.4%, elite server on grass
- Moutet ace rate only 2.7% but Kyrgios alone can push total high
- Kyrgios averaged 10+ aces per match in his prime grass matches
- Grass surface amplifies ace counts for big servers
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 12.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Kyrgios's history of tiebreaks and the grass-court serving dynamics make a tiebreak likely in this match.
- Kyrgios career tiebreak win rate 59%, plays many tiebreaks
- Moutet tiebreak win rate 51%, also frequent tiebreak participant
- Kyrgios last 5 matches: 3 of 5 had at least one tiebreak
- Moutet last 5 matches: 2 of 5 had a tiebreak
- Grass courts increase tiebreak likelihood due to serve dominance
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have similar double fault rates around 4%, and in a potentially close match with pressure points, the total could exceed 5.5.
- Kyrgios double fault rate 4.1%, Moutet 4.0%, both moderate
- Kyrgios averaged 2-3 double faults per match in recent outings
- Moutet's aggressive second serve can lead to double faults under pressure
- Combined, they could reach 6+ in a tight match
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Estimated chance55%

Nick Kyrgios

7W 8L

6-3 6-4#67Aleksandar Kovacevic

7-6(3) 6-0#15Karen Khachanov

3-6 6-3 6-4#126Mackenzie Mcdonald

7-6(7) 3-0 ret.#55Botic Van De Zandschulp

7-6(3) 6-3 7-6(1)#125Jacob Fearnley

7-6(2) 6-7(4) 7-6(3)#83Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

7-5 6-3#92Yibing Wu

3-6 6-2 6-2#78Kamil Majchrzak

6-3 6-1#181Chun Hsin Tseng

7-5 4-6 7-5 6-7(3) 6-4#15Karen Khachanov

7-6(11) 3-6 6-3 6-2#8Daniil Medvedev

6-4 6-2 6-3#804Jeff Wolf

7-6(3) 6-4 4-6 6-4#95Benjamin Bonzi

6-3 6-4 7-6(4)#855Thanasi Kokkinakis

6-3 6-2#9Taylor Fritz

Corentin Moutet

6W 9L

6-3 5-7 6-4 3-6 6-3#66Vit Kopriva

6-4 6-4#23Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

6-4 3-6 7-6(4)#122Pablo Llamas Ruiz

6-3 6-4#86Daniel Merida Aguilar

6-3 6-4#11Lorenzo Musetti

6-4 6-4#31Ignacio Buse

7-5 6-3#16Casper Ruud

6-4 6-1#127Alexandre Muller

4-6 6-3 6-4#81Marco Trungelliti

6-0 6-2#505Taha Baadi

6-1 6-4#1Jannik Sinner

6-0 1-6 6-4#43Tomas Machac

4-6 6-3 6-4#84Marcos Giron

7-6(5) 6-4#111Nikoloz Basilashvili

6-4 6-4#90Quentin Halys

Nick Kyrgios

Corentin Moutet

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 22.5

Nick Kyrgios +3.5

Over 9.5

Over 2.5

Corentin Moutet

Corentin Moutet

Result0 of 1 landed

Games2 of 4 landed

Sets0 of 1 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Nick Kyrgios

Corentin Moutet