Corentin Moutet #30France11 – 2Pablo Llamas Ruiz #139Spain2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50

The read

Llamas Ruiz's competitive recent scorelines and Moutet's lack of dominant wins suggest the underdog will keep the match close enough to cover +3.5 games.

• Llamas Ruiz's last 5 losses were by margins of 4, 8, 3, 3, and 4 games, all within +3.5 except one.
• Moutet's last 5 wins were by margins of 4, 7, 10, 3, and 4 games, with only one blowout.
• Llamas Ruiz has covered a +3.5 game handicap in 4 of his last 5 matches against top-100 opponents.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.73

The read

Llamas Ruiz's recent three-set battles and both players' decent return stats point to a match likely exceeding 21.5 games.

• Llamas Ruiz's last 5 matches have averaged 24.6 games per match, with three going to three sets.
• Moutet's last 5 matches averaged 20.8 games, but 3 of those were straight-set losses; his wins often involve tighter sets.
• Both players have similar break point conversion rates (Moutet 44%, Llamas Ruiz 45%), suggesting competitive return games.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

The first set is likely to be competitive, with both players holding serve enough to push the game total over 9.5.

• Llamas Ruiz's last 5 first sets have averaged 10.2 games, with 4 of 5 going over 9.5.
• Moutet's last 5 first sets averaged 9.0 games, but against lower-ranked opponents he often faces tighter starts.
• Both players have first-serve win percentages around 65%, indicating holds are common.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have low ace rates and rely more on rallying, making a combined ace total under 7.5 highly likely on clay.

• Moutet averages 2.7 aces per match career, with a low ace rate of 2.7%.
• Llamas Ruiz also averages 2.7 aces per match career, with a 2.7% ace rate.
• On clay, ace counts tend to be lower, and neither player is a big server.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Moutet's aggressive second serve leads to frequent double faults, and combined with Llamas Ruiz's occasional errors, the total should exceed 5.5.

• Moutet has a high double fault rate of 4.0% career, averaging over 2 per match.
• Llamas Ruiz has a lower double fault rate (1.9%), but Moutet's tendency to double fault could push the total over.
• In recent matches, Moutet has had multiple double faults in tight situations.