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NS MuraBrinje Grosuplje

Sun 1 Nov 2026, 14:001 Nov, 14:00

7Probabilities7Priced7Edges85%Strongest

Strong lean

Quick Take

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Context last updated 31 Oct 2026, 07:17 · Europe/Bucharest

Two sides a place apart on 12 points meet with neither convincing: Mura have one home win in six, Brinje one on the road.

With Mura drawing four straight, a tight, low-scoring game they edge or draw is the likeliest shape. Both teams to score: No at 1.83, Mura to score one goal or fewer at 1.62 and Brinje level or ahead at half-time at 1.40 hold up; Mura or Draw at 1.33 and Under 3.5 at 1.25 ask more than the record shows.

Context

No availability or research news for either side; the sporting picture is ordinary lower-table form. The home and away scoring splits are the only materially distinct condition, and neither team arrives with a settled defensive record.

Mura took all three points from the only meeting between the clubs, winning 2-1 in Grosuplje on 16 August 2026. One match is a thin sample and says little about how either side will approach this one. It does show Mura can find a way past a Brinje team that has conceded 16 goals in six away league games.
- Brinje-Grosuplje 1-2 Mura, 1. SNL, 16 August 2026; winner: away.
- This is the only head-to-head meeting supplied for the fixture.
Mura's home matches this season have been short on goals at their end of the pitch.
Mura's home league record reads one win, two draws and three defeats, with three goals scored at 0.5 per game. They kept three clean sheets in those six matches, so the shortage sits at the attacking end. Brinje's away defence, 16 conceded in six, is the counterweight: if the visitors' road form holds, the home total could stay low, but a 1-6 home defeat by Aluminij on 13 September 2026 shows the floor can drop out.
- Mura home league matches 2026: 6 tracked, 1 win, 2 draws, 3 defeats.
- Goals for average 0.5 per home league game; 3 clean sheets across the same six matches.
Six draws in 13 league matches is nearly half of Mura's season, and the recent run is four straight. The 0-0s came at home to Celje on 20 September 2026 and Nafta on 17 October 2026, while the 3-3 at Olimpija on 10 October 2026 was the outlier. A side that keeps finishing level at home makes a stalemate a live part of this fixture, though one heavy defeat sits inside the same sample.
- Mura 2026 league record over 13 matches, 17 July to 27 October 2026: 2 wins, 6 draws, 5 losses.
- Goals for average 1.08 and goals against average 1.92 per league match across the same sample.
The away split is stark: Brinje have one win, one draw and four defeats on the road, with 16 conceded, while at home they have scored 10 and conceded nine in seven games. The 0-5 defeat at Koper on 18 October 2026 is the low point, though a 2-0 cup win at Videm on 25 October 2026 shows they can travel and keep a clean sheet. Six away matches is still a small sample for a firm read.
- Brinje away league record 2026 per the standings fetched 31 October 2026: 6 played, 1 win, 1 draw, 4 defeats, 5 scored, 16 conceded.
- Brinje home league record in the same table: 7 played, 2 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats, 10 scored, 9 conceded.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.

Result2 outcomes · top 78%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.33
The read
Mura's draw-heavy run and Brinje's weak away record make a home defeat less likely than Mura's low table position suggests.
- Mura have drawn 6 of 13 league matches and 5 of their last 6.
- Mura's home league record is 1W 2D 3L; Brinje's away league record is 1W 1D 4L.
- The reverse fixture finished Brinje 1-2 Mura.
BetBugs · Double ChanceNS Mura or DrawMarket price1.33Estimated chance66%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Mura's very low first-half scoring at home makes them less likely to lead at the break, while Brinje have been competitive in away first halves.
- Mura have scored one first-half goal in six home league matches, an average of 0.17.
- Brinje average 0.71 first-half goals for and 0.71 against in away matches.
- Mura's overall first-half scoring average is 0.46, against 0.69 conceded.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfDraw or Brinje GrosupljeMarket price1.40Estimated chance78%

Goals5 outcomes · top 85%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Despite both defences conceding regularly, most recent matches have stayed below four total goals.
- Mura's league matches average 3.0 total goals; Brinje's average 3.1.
- Mura's last six matches produced 17 goals; Brinje's last six produced 16.
- Both teams have one heavy defeat that inflates their goals-against figures.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderUnder 3.5Market price1.25Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.83
The read
The home/away splits point to a game where at least one side is likely to be kept out.
- Mura's home league games have seen both teams score only 2 of 6 times.
- Brinje's away league games have seen both teams score only 2 of 7 times.
- Mura kept three clean sheets in six home league matches.
- The reverse fixture did see both teams score, a 2-1 Mura win.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScoreNoMarket price1.83Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.62
The read
Mura's home attack has been very limited, scoring just three times in six home league games.
- Mura have scored three goals in six home league matches, an average of 0.5.
- Mura failed to score in two of their last three home league games.
- Brinje have conceded 16 goals in seven away matches.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalNS Mura under 1.5Market price1.62Estimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.18
The read
Both teams rarely score in the same first half, and Mura's home first-half scoring is especially low.
- Mura have scored one first-half goal in six home league matches.
- Mura's last six first halves produced one instance of both teams scoring.
- Brinje's last six first halves produced no instance of both teams scoring.
- Brinje's away first halves average 0.71 goals for and 0.71 against.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfNoMarket price1.18Estimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.33
The read
Both teams' first-half scoring rates are low, especially Mura at home, pointing to a quiet opening period.
- Mura's first halves average 1.15 total goals (0.46 for, 0.69 against).
- Mura have scored only one first-half goal in six home league matches.
- Brinje's last six first halves produced 1.5 or fewer goals in five.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalsUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfMarket price1.33Estimated chance75%