Olimpija Ljubljana3NS Mura3

HT 1–0Sat 10 Oct 2026, 18:15 Predictions graded

Predictions6–843%

Edges1–233%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 7 Oct 2026, 06:57 · Europe/Bucharest

Olimpija's home record — three clean sheets and three goals conceded in five home league games — meets a Mura side that has let in 21 across ten.

Mura did win July's meeting 1-0 and these games stay tight. Olimpija to win at 1.75 and both teams to score: No at 1.88 are the two quotes that hold up; the 1.30 on a first-half goal does not.

Context

The 34th-round meeting at Fazanerija produced two goals inside 20 minutes and then a red card for each side, the second arriving in stoppage time. Two dismissals in one match is unusual, and both teams finishing with ten men is the kind of detail that makes this fixture hard to model from form alone. Recent meetings do not settle the question either: Mura won the clubs' earlier meeting this season, so there is no one-directional head-to-head edge to carry into Saturday.
- Mura and Olimpija drew 1-1 at Fazanerija City Stadium in the 34th round of the 1. SNL.
- Tamm scored on 14 minutes and Vizinger on 19; Cipot was sent off on 36 minutes and Sana on 90+2.
ConfirmedSources checked 7 Oct 2026, 06:55 · Europe/BucharestNK Olimpija Ljubljana match reportnkolimpija.si · 9 May 2026
Aygün's exit leaves Olimpija's recruitment department without a permanent head a month after the transfer window closed, with a scout working in Spain lined up to replace him. Sporting-director turnover does not touch a starting XI, so the direct effect on selection for this fixture is minimal. It matters instead as a marker of an unsettled autumn at the country's biggest club, which also reshaped its squad late in the summer window.
- Necat Aygün is no longer Olimpija's sporting director.
- Branko Milovanović, a scout at UD Las Palmas, is named as the expected successor.
ReportedSources checked 7 Oct 2026, 06:55 · Europe/Bucharest
Both of Slovenia's dominant clubs going out to third-division opponents in the same early cup round is a striking competition story in its own right. The concrete link to this fixture is scheduling rather than selection: Olimpija have no cup tie in this block, so their only competitive football between the September international window and this match is league fixtures. The exit also thins out their routes to silverware, though that shapes the season rather than the Mura team sheet.
- Third-division Rudar Trbovlje knocked Olimpija out of the Pokal Pivovarna Union.
- The exit came in the round played before 16 September, in which third-division Korotan Prevalje also knocked out Maribor.
ReportedSources checked 7 Oct 2026, 06:55 · Europe/Bucharest
A friendly during a league break is preparation rather than evidence of form, and coaches typically spread the minutes across a squad. Olimpija's opponents treated it as their second warm-up of the pause and were level at half-time before the home side pulled clear. The relevance for this fixture is narrow but real: Olimpija go into the restart having faced a competitive opponent instead of sitting idle through the international window.
- Olimpija beat Slaven Belupo 2-1 in a friendly at Brežice on 1 October.
- Slaven Belupo described the game as their second preparation match during the league break.
ConfirmedSources checked 7 Oct 2026, 06:55 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1st Half GoalswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.30fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 76.9%

−8.9ppshort

Mura's away games often see early goals, and Olimpija can score in the first half.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.75
The read
Olimpija are stronger at home and Mura have struggled defensively, so Olimpija are clearly favored.
- Olimpija home league record: 3W-1D-1L, 6 goals scored, 3 conceded in 5 games.
- Mura away league record: 1W-2D-2L, 7 scored, 11 conceded in 5 games.
- Olimpija have won their last two home H2H meetings 1-0.
- Mura sit 9th with 21 goals conceded in 10 league games.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostOlimpija LjubljanaEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
First halves in Olimpija's matches are usually level.
- Olimpija were level at half-time in four of their last six league matches.
- Olimpija average 0.3 first-half goals overall.
- Mura average 0.55 first-half goals overall.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance47%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Olimpija are stronger after half-time and Mura often fade.
- Olimpija score 0.7 second-half goals per league game and concede 0.5.
- Mura concede 1.27 second-half goals per league game.
- Olimpija's home second-half goal difference is +2 (4 scored, 2 conceded).
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostOlimpija LjubljanaEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Olimpija are stronger at home and Mura have struggled defensively, so Olimpija are clearly favored. A draw is plausible because both teams often play low-scoring matches and Mura can be resilient away.
- Olimpija home league record: 3W-1D-1L, 6 goals scored, 3 conceded in 5 games.
- Mura away league record: 1W-2D-2L, 7 scored, 11 conceded in 5 games.
- Olimpija have drawn 2 of their last 6 league matches.
- Mura have drawn 2 of their last 5 league matches.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonOlimpija Ljubljana or DrawEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Olimpija are more likely to lead at half-time given Mura's early concessions. First halves in Olimpija's matches are usually level.
- Olimpija score 0.3 first-half goals per league game and concede 0.3.
- Mura concede 0.91 first-half goals per league game.
- Olimpija were level at half-time in four of their last six league matches.
- Olimpija average 0.3 first-half goals overall.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonOlimpija Ljubljana or DrawEstimated chance80%

Goals4 of 9 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
H2H matches are consistently low-scoring and Olimpija's home defence is solid.
- All of the last five H2H meetings finished under 2.5 goals.
- Olimpija home league games average 1.8 total goals.
- Mura have been shut out in 3 of their last 6 league matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.88
The read
Olimpija's home defence is strong and Mura's attack has been inconsistent.
- Olimpija have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 home league games.
- Mura have failed to score in 3 of their last 6 league matches.
- Olimpija home games average only 0.6 goals conceded.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Olimpija have not been prolific at home, so under 1.5 is the more likely outcome.
- Olimpija average 1.2 goals per home league game.
- Olimpija have scored 6 goals across 5 home league games.
- Mura conceded 1 goal or fewer in 3 of their last 6 league games.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostOlimpija Ljubljana under 1.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Olimpija's home defence should limit Mura to at most one goal.
- Olimpija have conceded just 3 goals in 5 home league games.
- Mura have scored 0 or 1 goal in 4 of their last 6 league matches.
- Mura average 1.4 away goals but that is inflated by a 2-1 win.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostNS Mura under 1.5Estimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Mura have enough attacking threat to break through Olimpija's defence.
- Mura scored in 3 of their 5 away league games.
- Olimpija conceded in 2 of their 5 home league games.
- Mura have scored in 2 of their last 3 league matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonNS Mura to scoreEstimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Mura can score, so Olimpija may win without a clean sheet or not win at all.
- Mura scored in 3 of 5 away league games.
- Olimpija conceded in 2 of 5 home league games.
- Mura have scored in 2 of their last 3 league matches.
BetBugs · Home Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Mura's away games often see early goals, and Olimpija can score in the first half.
- Olimpija's league games average 0.6 first-half goals total.
- Mura's league games average 1.46 first-half goals total.
- Three of Olimpija's last six league matches had a first-half goal.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
First-half goals for both sides are rare in Olimpija's matches.
- Olimpija have conceded only 3 first-half goals in 10 league games.
- Olimpija have conceded 0.3 first-half goals per game.
- Mura have conceded 0.91 first-half goals per game.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
There is a decent chance the second half stays under two goals.
- Olimpija's home second-half total averages 1.2 goals.
- Mura have scored 0 or 1 second-half goals in 4 of their last 6 league matches.
- Four of Olimpija's last six league matches had under 1.5 second-half goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance55%