1. SNLFull time

Predictions graded

Maribor1NS Mura1

HT 1–1Sun 6 Sept 2026, 15:30 Predictions graded

Predictions4–640%

Edges4–450%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 3 Sep 2026, 01:08 · Europe/Bucharest

Maribor's home win at 1.57 is the only market with a positive edge (+1.3 points), but it is thin and carries risk from Maribor's unnamed injury returnees and Mura's potential defensive response after their midweek cup exit.

All other markets are priced efficiently or against the model, with double chance, first-half result, HT/FT, and goals markets offering no value.

Context

Maribor are first in the 1. SNL with 15 points from seven matches.
They have won four and drawn three, scoring 13 goals and conceding only five. At home they have won all three matches, scoring eight and conceding one. This solid start suggests they can control the game against a struggling opponent.
- Maribor are 1st with 15 points from 7 matches (4W, 3D, 0L).
- Home record: 3 wins in 3 matches, 8 goals scored, 1 conceded.
- Recent league form: W, W, D, W, D (last five).
NS Mura are 9th in the 1. SNL with 7 points from 7 matches.
They have lost four of their last five league games, conceding 14 goals overall. Away from home they have lost two of four matches and conceded 10 goals. This defensive weakness could be exploited by Maribor's attack.
- NS Mura are 9th with 7 points from 7 matches (2W, 1D, 4L).
- Away record: 1 win, 1 draw, 2 losses in 4 matches, 6 goals scored, 10 conceded.
- Recent league form: L, L, W, L, L (last five).
The last five meetings between these teams have been in the 1. SNL.
Maribor won 3-0 at home in March 2026 and 1-0 at home in September 2025, while NS Mura won 2-1 at home in May 2026. Maribor's home wins show they can beat NS Mura comfortably, but the away loss in May shows NS Mura can compete.
- 2026-03-14: Maribor 3-0 NS Mura (home win for Maribor).
- 2025-09-13: Maribor 1-0 NS Mura (home win for Maribor).
- 2026-05-17: NS Mura 2-1 Maribor (home win for NS Mura).
Mura lost their regional cup tie 1-0 at Beltinci on 2 September, four days before this league match.
The short turnaround leaves limited recovery time and could influence Mura's selection or energy levels for the away trip. The defeat itself does not establish a tactical weakness, but the quick fixture congestion is a concrete preparation factor.
- Beltinci beat Mura 1-0 in the first round of the Pivovarna Union Cup.
- Ekipa’s team sheet lists Mura’s starting XI and five substitutions during the tie.
- NK Mura skozi čas also recorded Mura’s 1-0 cup defeat and the players used for at least five minutes.
ReportedSources checked 3 Sep 2026, 01:07 · Europe/BucharestEkipa reportekipa.svet24.si · 2 Sep 2026NK Mura skozi čas match reportnkmura.si · 2 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 7

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Maribor or Draw

1.15fair 1.18

BetBugs 85% · Market 87%

−2.0ppshort

Maribor's unbeaten league run supports avoiding defeat, but the odds are too short to justify a bet.

1 St Half ResultlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Maribor

1.95fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 51.3%

0.0ppshort

The market overestimates Maribor's first-half dominance relative to their actual HT lead rate.

HT/FTlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Maribor at half-time / Maribor at full-time

2.25fair 2.50

BetBugs 40% · Market 44.4%

−4.4ppshort

The market slightly overprices Maribor leading at both intervals given their modest first-half lead percentage.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.65fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 60.6%

0.0ppshort

Both teams' recent matches have trended towards higher scoring, especially Mura's leaky defense, supporting over 2.5 goals.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Yes

1.73fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 57.8%

0.0ppshort

Mura's ability to score despite poor results and Maribor's occasional defensive lapses make both teams scoring a plausible outcome.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.25fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have shown a tendency to be involved in first-half goals, making over 0.5 first-half goals likely.

Team to ScorewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Maribor to score

1.11fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 90.1%

0.0ppshort

Mura's inability to keep clean sheets and Maribor's consistent scoring make an away clean sheet unlikely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Maribor's strong home form and superior league position, combined with Mura's poor away record, make a home win the most likely outcome.
- Maribor are unbeaten in 7 league games (W4 D3), sitting 1st with 15 points.
- Maribor have won all 3 home league matches this season, scoring 8 and conceding 1.
- NS Mura are 9th with 7 points, losing 4 of 7, and have lost 3 of their last 5.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, Maribor have won 3, including a 3-0 home win in March 2026.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostMariborEstimated chance65%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given Maribor's unbeaten league record and Mura's struggles, the probability of Maribor avoiding defeat is very high.
- Maribor are unbeaten in 7 league games this season.
- Maribor have won all 3 home league matches, with no draws at home.
- NS Mura have lost 4 of 7 league games and have only 1 away win.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonMaribor or DrawEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Maribor's stronger first-half performance and Mura's tendency to trail at the break give Maribor an edge in the first-half market.
- Maribor have led at half-time in 40% of their matches this season.
- NS Mura have trailed at half-time in 60% of their matches.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, Maribor led at half-time in 2 matches, with 2 draws and 1 Mura lead.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostMariborEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Maribor's home dominance and Mura's poor away form make a Maribor half-time/full-time double a reasonable prediction.
- Maribor have won all 3 home league matches this season.
- Maribor led at half-time in 40% of matches and won 57% overall.
- NS Mura have lost 4 of 7 matches and trailed at half-time in 60%.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostMaribor/MariborEstimated chance40%

Goals3 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent matches have trended towards higher scoring, especially Mura's leaky defense, supporting over 2.5 goals.
- Maribor average 1.7 goals scored and 1.1 conceded per game this season.
- NS Mura average 1.1 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per game, with 14 goals conceded in 7 games.
- Maribor's home matches have averaged 3.0 total goals (8 scored, 1 conceded in 3 games).
- Mura's away matches have averaged 4.0 total goals (6 scored, 10 conceded in 4 games).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Mura's ability to score despite poor results and Maribor's occasional defensive lapses make both teams scoring a plausible outcome.
- Maribor have conceded in 5 of their last 7 league matches.
- NS Mura have scored in 6 of their last 7 league matches.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, both teams scored in 3 matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown a tendency to be involved in first-half goals, making over 0.5 first-half goals likely.
- Maribor average 0.6 first-half goals scored and 0.5 conceded.
- NS Mura average 0.5 first-half goals scored and 0.9 conceded.
- In Maribor's last 5 matches, 4 had at least one first-half goal.
- In Mura's last 5 matches, 4 had at least one first-half goal.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves have been productive in both teams' recent games, especially Mura's away matches, supporting over 1.5 second-half goals.
- Maribor's recent matches have seen an average of 1.1 second-half goals (total goals minus first-half goals).
- NS Mura's recent matches have seen an average of 1.2 second-half goals.
- Mura's away matches have averaged 2.5 second-half goals (4.0 total minus 1.5 first-half).
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Maribor's solid home defense and Mura's occasional scoring struggles give a moderate chance of a home clean sheet.
- Maribor have kept 2 clean sheets in their last 5 matches.
- Maribor have conceded only 1 goal in 3 home league matches.
- NS Mura have failed to score in 2 of their last 5 matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostNS Mura not to scoreEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Mura's inability to keep clean sheets and Maribor's consistent scoring make an away clean sheet unlikely.
- NS Mura have conceded in all 7 league matches this season.
- Maribor have scored in all 7 league matches this season.
- Maribor have scored at least 1 goal in every home match.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonMaribor to scoreEstimated chance75%