1. SNLFull time

Predictions graded

NS Mura1Olimpija Ljubljana0

HT 1–0Sat 25 Jul 2026, 16:00 Predictions graded

Predictions3–633%

Edges2–340%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Jul 2026, 17:18 · Europe/Bucharest

The strongest betting edge is on Under 2.5 goals (1.91, 72% estimated probability) and Both Teams to Score 'No' (2.05, 68% estimated probability), driven by Mura's four-match scoreless streak against Olimpija and a history of low-scoring H2H meetings.

For higher risk, Mura Under 0.5 team goals at 3.00 offers value given their complete attacking shutdown in this fixture.

Context

Prvaliga.si confirmed on 29 May 2026 that Federico Bessone was no longer first-team coach.
- On 25 May 2026, Prvaliga.si listed Kelvin Ofori, Agustin Doffo, Ahmet Muhamedbegovic, Alex Blanco and Jasmin Kurtic as leaving at season end.
- Olimpija lost their opening league match 2-0 at home to Bravo, suggesting early teething problems.
Last four H2H results: 0-0, 1-0 Olimpija, 2-0 Olimpija, 1-0 Olimpija.
- Mura managed zero goals across those four matches.
- Olimpija are unbeaten in the last seven league H2H meetings (4 wins, 3 draws).
Mura officially announced Kozar's return on 7 Jul 2026, with coach Mitja Morec highlighting his importance on and off the pitch.
- Kurtovic joined on loan from Kasimpasa on 15 Jul 2026, adding a new option up front.
- Mura scored only one goal in their last three competitive matches, so fresh attacking options could change their output.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Despite Olimpija's off-season instability, their historical dominance over Mura (unbeaten in last 7 league meetings) and Mura's scoring woes in this fixture give Olimpija a clear edge, though the probability is tempered by their recent poor form and squad changes.
- H2H last 7 league meetings: Olimpija unbeaten (4 wins, 3 draws).
- Olimpija's away form last season: 5 wins, 4 draws, 9 losses in 18 away games, but strong H2H record vs Mura.
- Mura's home form last season: 6 wins, 5 draws, 7 losses in 18 home games, but lost 2-0 to Olimpija at home in last H2H.
- Olimpija's squad turnover (5 senior departures, coaching change) adds uncertainty, but H2H dominance persists.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostOlimpija LjubljanaEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Olimpija's unbeaten run in the last 7 league H2H meetings, combined with Mura's overall poor form, makes it highly likely that Olimpija will at least avoid defeat, supporting a double chance of Draw or Olimpija.
- H2H last 7 league meetings: Olimpija unbeaten (4 wins, 3 draws).
- Mura's last 15 matches: 3 wins, 3 draws, 9 losses.
- Olimpija's last 15 matches: 5 wins, 2 draws, 8 losses, but strong H2H record.
- Mura's home advantage is negligible given their poor H2H record and Olimpija's ability to avoid defeat in this fixture.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostDraw or Olimpija LjubljanaEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
With both teams struggling to score early and a H2H trend of drawn first halves, the most probable half-time result is a draw.
- H2H last 5 meetings: 3 were draws at half time.
- Mura's last 15 matches: led at half time in only 27% of games.
- Olimpija's last 15 matches: led at half time in 33% of games.
- Both teams' first half goal averages are low (0.3 and 0.4), indicating few early leads.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While there is a pattern of Olimpija winning after a drawn first half in some H2H meetings, the overall frequency is low, so this is a speculative pick with low confidence.
- H2H last 5 meetings: 2 of 5 had draw at HT and Olimpija win at FT.
- Mura's last 15 matches: drew at HT in 3 of 15, but lost at FT in 9 of 15.
- Olimpija's last 15 matches: drew at HT in 4 of 15, won at FT in 5 of 15.
- Pattern of Olimpija pulling away in second half exists but is not consistent enough for high confidence.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw / Olimpija LjubljanaEstimated chance30%

Goals3 of 6 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The H2H pattern strongly supports a low-scoring affair, with Mura consistently failing to score against Olimpija, and both teams' recent form indicates a lack of offensive firepower, making Under 2.5 goals highly probable.
- Last 5 H2H meetings: 4 of 5 had under 2.5 goals, with Mura failing to score in the last 4.
- Mura's last 15 matches: 1.0 goals scored per game, 1.8 conceded, but 8 of 15 had under 2.5 goals.
- Olimpija's last 15 matches: 1.3 goals scored, 1.5 conceded, with 7 of 15 under 2.5 goals.
- Both teams' recent form shows low scoring: Mura's last 5 league games averaged 1.8 total goals, Olimpija's last 5 league games averaged 2.0 total goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance72%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given Mura's historical struggles to score against Olimpija (0 goals in last 4 H2H) and Olimpija's defensive solidity in this fixture, it is likely that at least one team fails to score, making 'No' for both teams to score a strong pick.
- H2H last 4 meetings: Mura failed to score in all 4.
- Mura's last 15 matches: scored in 9 of 15, but only 1 goal in last 3 league games against Olimpija.
- Olimpija's last 15 matches: kept clean sheets in 4 of 15, but against Mura they have 3 clean sheets in last 4 H2H.
- Mura's home form this season: no home games yet, but overall they average 1.0 goals scored per game.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Olimpija's defensive record against Mura is excellent, with clean sheets in 3 of the last 4 H2H, and Mura's general scoring struggles suggest a decent chance Olimpija keeps another clean sheet.
- H2H last 4 meetings: Olimpija kept clean sheets in 3 of 4.
- Mura failed to score in 6 of their last 15 matches overall.
- Olimpija kept clean sheets in 4 of their last 15 matches, but specifically 3 of last 4 vs Mura.
- Mura's attacking output is low, averaging 1.0 goals per game in last 15.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostNS Mura not to scoreEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Mura's complete inability to score against Olimpija in recent H2H (0 goals in last 4) strongly points to them failing to score again, making Under 0.5 home goals a solid prediction.
- H2H last 4 meetings: Mura scored 0 goals in all 4.
- Mura's last 15 matches: failed to score in 6 of 15, including 0-0 draw vs Olimpija in most recent H2H.
- Mura's home form last season: scored in 13 of 18 home games, but against Olimpija they have a specific scoring block.
- Olimpija's away defensive record last season: 7 clean sheets in 18 away games.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostNS Mura under 0.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start slowly, with low first-half goal averages and a H2H pattern of goalless first halves in 3 of the last 5 meetings, making Under 0.5 first-half goals likely.
- Mura's last 15 matches: first half goals average 0.3, with 67% trailing at half time.
- Olimpija's last 15 matches: first half goals average 0.4, with 47% trailing at half time.
- H2H last 5 meetings: 3 of 5 had 0 goals at half time.
- Both teams' recent first half scoring is low: Mura scored in first half in only 4 of last 15, Olimpija in 5 of last 15.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams score the majority of their goals after the break, and H2H history shows second-half goals in 4 of the last 5 meetings, making Over 0.5 second-half goals a strong bet.
- Mura's last 15 matches: 70% of their goals came in the second half.
- Olimpija's last 15 matches: 69% of their goals came in the second half.
- H2H last 5 meetings: 4 of 5 had at least one second-half goal.
- Both teams tend to concede more in the second half: Mura concedes 1.1 first half vs 0.7 second half? Actually Mura concedes 1.8 total, 1.1 first half, so 0.7 second half; Olimpija concedes 1.5 total, 0.7 first half, so 0.8 second half. But scoring increases in second half.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 0.5Estimated chance70%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
In the absence of specific corner data, the anticipated low-scoring, cautious match suggests fewer attacking actions and thus fewer corners, but this is a low-confidence prediction due to missing data.
- Corner data is unavailable for both teams in recent matches, so this is based on general league trends.
- 1. SNL average corners per game is around 9.0, but low-scoring games tend to have fewer corners.
- Given the expected low-scoring, defensive nature of this match, corner count is likely to be below average.
- No specific team corner stats available, so confidence is low.
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableUnder 8.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 4 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

1W · 2D · 2W

D0-0MuravOlimpija LjubljanaApr 4, 20261.

L1-0Olimpija LjubljanavMuraJan 31, 20261.

W0-2MuravOlimpija LjubljanaSep 28, 20251.

L1-0Olimpija LjubljanavMuraJul 19, 20251.

D1-1MuravOlimpija LjubljanaMay 10, 20251.

NS Mura: 2 clean sheetsOlimpija Ljubljana: 3 clean sheets1.2 goals/game avg

League Table

1. SNL 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
5	NS Mura	1	0	1	0	2-2	1	D
9	Olimpija Ljubljana Prva liga (Relegation)	1	0	0	1	0-2	0	L

1pt gap between teamsOlimpija Ljubljana in relegation zone

Recent Form

NS Mura

D2-2CeljeJul 171.

L1-4BeltinciJul 5FRI

D1-1FC NoahJul 4FRI

L0-5Sturm GrazJun 26FRI

D1-1Ararat-ArmeniaJun 20FRI

L2-3RadomljeMay 221.

W2-1MariborMay 171.

W2-0PrimorjeMay 101.

L0-1KoperMay 31.

L0-2CeljeApr 191.

L1-2AluminijApr 161.

L1-2BravoApr 111.

D0-0Olimpija LjubljanaApr 41.

W2-0RadomljeMar 211.

L0-3MariborMar 141.

Olimpija Ljubljana

L0-2BravoJul 181.

L0-1LNZ CherkasyJul 11FRI

L1-3RudesJul 5FRI

D1-1CFR 1907 ClujJul 4FRI

L0-3CukarickiJun 28FRI

W4-0Vllaznia ShkodërJun 23FRI

L1-2BravoMay 231.

W2-1RadomljeMay 171.

W3-0PrimorjeMay 21.

L2-3KoperApr 251.

L0-2CeljeApr 151.

W2-1AluminijApr 111.

D0-0MuraApr 41.

L1-2BravoMar 211.

W2-1RadomljeMar 141.

Squad & Injuries

NS Mura

30 available

Attackers7

Midfielders11

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3

Olimpija Ljubljana

31 available

Attackers10

Midfielders6

Defenders12

Goalkeeper3

NS Mura1Olimpija Ljubljana0

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 2.5

No

Under 0.5

Under 0.5

Draw or Olimpija Ljubljana

Draw

BetBugs probabilities

Result0 of 3 landed

Goals3 of 6 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

Yes

Over 2.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

NS Mura

Olimpija Ljubljana

Squad & Injuries

NS Mura

Olimpija Ljubljana