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Predictions graded

Stenhousemuir0Livingston3

HT 0–2Fri 30 Oct 2026, 19:30 Predictions graded

Predictions3–538%

Edges2–433%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 29 Oct 2026, 04:08 · Europe/Bucharest

Stenhousemuir's strong home record meets a Livingston side that has conceded only four goals in five away league games, with the September 1-0 win at Livingston as the reference.

A tight, low-scoring game with the home side avoiding defeat is the likeliest shape. Stenhousemuir or draw at 1.95, under 2.5 goals at 1.95 and both teams to score – no at 2.00 offer something, as does Livingston under 1.5 goals at 1.95; the 1.30 on the home side's under 1.5 goals does not.

Context

Stenhousemuir have made Ochilview the base of their second place in the Championship.
Their six home league games have produced four wins, one draw and one defeat, 8 goals for and 3 against. That sits against a run of three defeats in their last four league matches, two of them away from home. Livingston's away defence has conceded four in five, so the home side's scoring rate will be tested. The home form is the strongest argument for Stenhousemuir avoiding defeat.
- After 12 league rounds Stenhousemuir's home record is 4W-1D-1L from six games, 8 goals for and 3 against.
- Their full league record is 7W-2D-3L from 12 games, 13 goals for and 9 against.
On 4 September, Stenhousemuir won this pairing 1-0 at Livingston through Shinnie's early goal. That result provides the most recent direct meeting of the teams, while Shinnie's Livingston connection adds a personal layer and Bartley linked the goal to preparation. The return is eight weeks later at a different venue, however, and the available evidence does not establish that the same plan or personnel will be used.
- Stenhousemuir won 1-0 at Livingston, with A. Shinnie scoring after 13 minutes.
- Shinnie had previously played for Livingston, and the victory was Stenhousemuir's fourth straight league win.
- Marvin Bartley regarded Shinnie as highly professional and linked the goal to the side's preparation.
- The result put Stenhousemuir top of the second tier before a Premier Sports Cup quarter-final against Hearts the following Friday.
ReportedSources checked 29 Oct 2026, 04:06 · Europe/BucharestStenhousemuir 1-0 Livingston match reportwww.falkirkherald.co.uk · 5 Sep 2026
The 25 July League Cup tie at Ochilview ended 0-0, and the September league meeting between the same pair finished 1-0 to Stenhousemuir. The cup tie came in a different competition and squad usage is unknown, so it is supporting detail rather than a template. Even so, the two 2026 meetings produced one goal between them, which frames a low-scoring expectation for Friday.
- 25 July 2026, League Cup at Ochilview: Stenhousemuir 0-0 Livingston.
- 4 September 2026, Championship: Livingston 0-1 Stenhousemuir.
Livingston's five away league games have yielded two wins, one draw and two defeats, with 6 goals scored and 4 conceded. The goals-against figure is a large part of why the low-scoring case has support, and it also explains why a straightforward home win is not the obvious read. The goals-for figure of six in five games cuts the other way against an away clean-sheet win.
- Livingston's away league record after 12 rounds: 5 played, 2W-1D-2L, 6 goals for, 4 against.
- Their full league record is 5W-2D-5L from 12 games, 15 goals for and 11 against.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.95
The read
A strong home record and an away win over this same opponent make a home win or draw the most likely combined outcome.
- Stenhousemuir are 2nd on 23 points with a home league record of 4W-1D-1L (8 goals for, 3 against)
- Stenhousemuir won 1-0 at Livingston in the Championship on 2026-09-04
- Livingston's away league record is 2W-1D-2L with 6 scored and 4 conceded
BetBugs · Double ChancelostStenhousemuir or DrawEstimated chance64%

Goals3 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.95
The read
Both sides are low-volume attacking teams whose recent games and head-to-head meetings have been decided by single goals.
- Stenhousemuir's last six matches produced 7 goals in total; Livingston's last six produced 8
- The two 2026 meetings finished 0-0 (League Cup) and 1-0 to Stenhousemuir
- Stenhousemuir have 7 clean sheets in 15 competitive games, Livingston 7 in 14
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.00
The read
Two defensively solid sides with frequent clean sheets make a match where only one team scores the likelier shape.
- Stenhousemuir saw both teams score in only 4 of 15 competitive matches
- Livingston saw both teams score in 4 of 14, with 7 clean sheets
- Neither 2026 meeting produced goals for both sides
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Stenhousemuir's scoring has dried up recently and they face one of the tighter away defences in the division.
- Stenhousemuir scored 0 or 1 in each of their last six matches (3 goals total)
- Their league season shows 13 goals in 12 games
- Livingston have conceded only 4 goals in 5 away league games
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonStenhousemuir under 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.95
The read
Livingston's away scoring is modest and Stenhousemuir's home defence has been hard to break down.
- Livingston have 6 goals in 5 away league matches
- They scored 0 or 1 in four of their last six games
- Stenhousemuir have conceded just 3 goals in 6 home league games
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostLivingston under 1.5Estimated chance61%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.43
The read
Both teams start cautiously and generate few first-half goals, with Stenhousemuir's home first halves especially quiet.
- Stenhousemuir first halves: 0.53 scored and 0.53 conceded per game; at home 0.375 and 0.25
- Livingston first halves: 0.86 scored and 0.43 conceded; away 0.67 and 0.33
- First-half goals stayed under 1.5 in four of the last six games for each side
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both defences tighten after the break and neither side has shown the scoring output to produce a multi-goal second half.
- Livingston concede 0.14 second-half goals per game across 14 matches
- Stenhousemuir's second-half goals against average 0.33 overall and 0.5 at home
- Second halves in Stenhousemuir's last six matches produced only 3 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance71%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The most common shape in Stenhousemuir's recent wins is a single-goal, clean-sheet victory.
- Stenhousemuir won 1-0 at Livingston and beat Arbroath and Ayr 1-0
- Stenhousemuir have 7 clean sheets in 15; Livingston 7 in 14
- Livingston have scored only 10 goals in 14 competitive matches
BetBugs · Correct ScorelostStenhousemuir 1-0 LivingstonEstimated chance13%

Head-to-Head

1W · 1D · 3W

W0-1LivingstonvStenhousemuirSep 4, 2026CHA

D0-0StenhousemuirvLivingstonJul 25, 2026LEA

L1-3StenhousemuirvLivingstonJan 21, 2023FAC

L0-4StenhousemuirvLivingstonNov 10, 2020LEA

L0-1StenhousemuirvLivingstonApr 15, 2017LEA

Stenhousemuir: 2 clean sheetsLivingston: 3 clean sheets2 goals/game avg

League Table

Championship 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
2	Stenhousemuir Promotion - Premiership (Promotion: Semi-finals)	12	7	2	3	13-9	23	LLDLW
6	Livingston	12	5	2	5	15-11	17	WDLLW

6pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Stenhousemuir

L0-1DunfermlineOct 27CHA

L0-3PartickOct 24CHA

D1-1Raith RoversOct 17CHA

L0-2Inverness CTOct 10CHA

W1-0Ayr UtdSep 25CHA

W1-0ArbroathSep 19CHA

W1-0PartickSep 15CHA

L0-3Heart Of MidlothianSep 11LEA

W1-0LivingstonSep 4CHA

W3-1Inverness CTAug 29CHA

W2-0Queen's ParkAug 22CHA

W2-0MortonAug 8CHA

D1-1Raith RoversAug 1CHA

W2-1BrechinJul 18LEA

W2-0Forfar AthleticJul 11LEA

Livingston

W1-0ArbroathOct 24CHA

D0-0DunfermlineOct 17CHA

L1-2PartickOct 10CHA

L1-2Ayr UtdOct 3CHA

W2-0Raith RoversSep 25CHA

D2-2Inverness CTSep 19CHA

W4-1MortonSep 11CHA

L0-1StenhousemuirSep 4CHA

L0-1ArbroathAug 29CHA

W2-0DunfermlineAug 22CHA

L0-2PartickAug 7CHA

W2-0Queen's ParkAug 1CHA

W8-0Forfar AthleticJul 21LEA

W2-0BrechinJul 14LEA

W2-1Heart Of MidlothianJul 10FRI

Squad & Injuries

Stenhousemuir

25 available

Attackers4

Midfielders8

Defenders11

Goalkeeper2

Livingston

29 available

Attackers6

Midfielders13

Defenders8

Goalkeeper2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Stenhousemuir or Draw

Under 2.5

No

Livingston under 1.5

Under 1.5 goals in 1st half

Stenhousemuir under 1.5

Result0 of 1 landed

Goals3 of 7 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Stenhousemuir

Livingston

Squad & Injuries

Stenhousemuir

Livingston