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Predictions graded

Partick Thistle3Stenhousemuir0

HT 2–0Sat 24 Oct 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–555%

Edges2–433%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Oct 2026, 10:55 · Europe/Bucharest

Stenhousemuir lead the Championship by a point with a game in hand and visit a Partick side unbeaten in 24 home league games and yet to concede at Firhill in the league this season.

A tight, low-scoring Partick win or draw is the likeliest shape. Stenhousemuir to draw or win at 2.75, under 2.5 goals at 2.00, both teams not to score at 1.75 and a Stenhousemuir win at 6.00 all carry a case; Partick to win at 1.43 does not.

Context

Stenhousemuir were eight points clear after eight games and Bartley's September award followed four wins and four clean sheets in five league matches, which is why this trip to Firhill carries table-topping weight. The cushion has been trimmed since: the seven-match league winning run ended with a 2-0 defeat at Inverness Caledonian Thistle on 10 October, and a 1-1 home draw with Raith Rovers followed, so framing that describes an ongoing unbeaten or winning sequence is out of date. Partick Thistle have won three of their last four league games, which makes the leaders' margin the central question of the afternoon. Part-time status and two promotions in three seasons leave squad depth as the season-long caveat rather than anything specific to this match.
- Stenhousemuir won promotion from League Two in 2023-24 and from League One in 2025-26 and remain a part-time club.
- They were eight points clear at the top after eight Championship games, and Marvin Bartley took the September manager-of-the-month award after four wins and four clean sheets in five league matches.
- A 1-1 home draw with Raith Rovers on 17 October kept them top of the table.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 10:52 · Europe/Bucharest
The 15 September meeting was level until Kargbo struck on 76 minutes, so Stenhousemuir's win came from a tight game rather than a dominant one. Since then Thistle have taken 10 points from 12 in the league, scoring seven goals across those four matches, which is a different proposition from the side beaten at Ochilview. Stenhousemuir have since lost 2-0 at Inverness and drawn 1-1 with Raith Rovers, conceding three goals in two games after a month of clean sheets. The counterweight is that the one side to beat Thistle this season did it by holding a narrow lead late, and that Bartley's team had kept four clean sheets in five league matches in September.
- Hamzad Kargbo scored in the 76th minute, assisted by Ross Meechan, as Stenhousemuir beat Partick Thistle 1-0 at Ochilview Park on 15 September.
- The match was played in front of 1,774 spectators and was goalless at half-time.
- It is the only Championship defeat Partick Thistle have taken this season; they have won three and drawn one of their four league games since.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 10:52 · Europe/BucharestMatch report: Stenhousemuir 1-0 Partick Thistlewww.bbc.com · 15 Sep 2026
Thistle have not lost a home league game in 24 attempts, but the run is built partly on stalemates: goalless home draws with Queen's Park on 29 August and Raith Rovers on 19 September sit inside the sequence. Stenhousemuir have won at Ayr, Livingston and Queen's Park in the league this season and lost only at Inverness on the road, so the record is being tested by a side comfortable away from Ochilview. The milestone is unusual and concrete, yet it describes Thistle's floor rather than how they will play on Saturday. It mainly frames how much a first home league defeat in 25 attempts would mean.
- Partick Thistle made it 24 home league games unbeaten with a 3-0 win over Arbroath at Firhill on 3 October, a club record.
- Ben Stanway scored twice in that win for Mark Wilson's side.
- The record was noted as being on the line when Stenhousemuir visit on 24 October.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 10:52 · Europe/Bucharest
A manager publicly labelling a conceded goal unacceptable three days before a trip to the division's most durable home side points to defensive work on the training ground rather than a change of attacking intent. Stenhousemuir's season has rested on clean sheets, four of them in five league matches in September, so the criticism reads as a correction of a recent dip rather than a new direction. Partick Thistle have scored seven goals in their last four league matches, three of them against Arbroath, so any loosening at the back is the part of this fixture most exposed. The limitation is that two goals conceded in two games is thin evidence of a lasting problem, and Bartley's own award record argues the opposite.
- Marvin Bartley called the goal Stenhousemuir conceded in the 1-1 home draw with Raith Rovers on 17 October 'unacceptable'.
- The draw kept Stenhousemuir top of the Championship.
- Bartley was September's Championship manager of the month after four wins and four clean sheets in five league matches.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 10:52 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Partick have been very hard to score against at Firhill and carry the larger share of the match-winner chance.
- Partick's league home record is 3 wins and 2 draws with 6 goals for and none against.
- Partick have 9 clean sheets in 14 competitive matches this season.
- Stenhousemuir's away league record is 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss.
- Partick sit second, one point behind Stenhousemuir with a game more played.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonPartick ThistleEstimated chance49%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.40
The read
Partick have often been level at the break and the September meeting was goalless at half-time.
- Partick were level at half-time in 4 of their last 6 matches.
- Partick's recent home league games include two goalless draws.
- The September meeting was goalless at half-time.
- Stenhousemuir's away first-half scoring average is 1.0 goal per game.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second halves involving both teams have often been level, making a draw the largest single outcome.
- Partick's second-half goals-against average is 0.14 overall.
- Stenhousemuir's away second-half goals-against average is 0.14.
- Partick drew the second half in 3 of their last 6 matches.
- Stenhousemuir drew the second half in 3 of their last 6 matches.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance48%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Partick have been very hard to score against at Firhill and carry the larger share of the match-winner chance. Two well-organised sides and Partick's habit of drawing at home make a share of the points plausible.
- Partick's league home record is 3 wins and 2 draws with 6 goals for and none against.
- Partick have 9 clean sheets in 14 competitive matches this season.
- Partick have drawn 2 of 5 home league games.
- Stenhousemuir have drawn 1 of 5 away league games.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonPartick Thistle or DrawEstimated chance77%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Partick have scored more first-half goals than they concede and have not trailed at the break in their recent run. Partick have often been level at the break and the September meeting was goalless at half-time.
- Partick average 1.07 first-half goals and concede 0.21 overall.
- At home Partick average 1.33 first-half goals and concede none.
- Partick were level at half-time in 4 of their last 6 matches.
- Partick's recent home league games include two goalless draws.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonPartick Thistle or DrawEstimated chance81%

Goals3 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.00
The read
Both sides keep clean sheets often and recent meetings have been low-scoring, pointing to under 2.5.
- Partick concede 0.36 goals per game and have 9 clean sheets in 14 competitive matches.
- Stenhousemuir concede 0.73 goals per game and have 7 clean sheets in 15.
- The September league meeting finished 1-0 to Stenhousemuir.
- Partick's league home matches have produced 6 goals for and none against in 5 games.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.75
The read
Both teams have strong clean-sheet records, so at least one side is likely to be shut out.
- Partick have 9 clean sheets in 14 competitive matches.
- Stenhousemuir have 7 clean sheets in 15 competitive matches.
- The September league meeting finished 1-0 to Stenhousemuir.
- Partick's home league record includes 5 clean sheets in 5 games.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Partick's league home scoring is modest and Stenhousemuir concede relatively few away, so one goal or none is plausible.
- Partick's league home record is 6 goals in 5 games.
- Stenhousemuir concede 0.71 goals per away match across all competitions.
- Partick had two goalless home league draws this season.
- Stenhousemuir have 7 clean sheets in 15 competitive matches.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostPartick Thistle under 1.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Stenhousemuir have scored in most away games and already found the net twice at Firhill this season.
- Stenhousemuir scored in 6 of 7 away matches this season.
- The teams drew 2-2 at Firhill in the League Cup in July.
- Stenhousemuir have scored 5 goals in 5 away league games.
- Partick have kept clean sheets in all 5 home league games.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostStenhousemuir to scoreEstimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Most recent matches for both sides have produced a first-half goal, and Partick create regularly before the break.
- Partick average 1.07 first-half goals and Stenhousemuir 0.67 overall.
- Partick had a first-half goal in 4 of their last 6 matches.
- Stenhousemuir had a first-half goal in 4 of their last 6 matches.
- The September meeting was goalless at half-time.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance66%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' second halves have produced very few goals, so under 1.5 is much more likely.
- Partick average 0.5 second-half goals and concede 0.14 overall.
- Stenhousemuir average 0.43 second-half goals per away match.
- Partick's last six matches produced at most one second-half goal in each.
- Stenhousemuir's last six matches produced at most one second-half goal in each.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance78%

Head-to-Head

3W · 1D · 1W

L1-0StenhousemuirvPartickSep 15, 2026CHA

D2-2PartickvStenhousemuirJul 21, 2026LEA

W1-2StenhousemuirvPartickJul 9, 2022LEA

W1-2StenhousemuirvPartickJul 17, 2021LEA

W1-4StenhousemuirvPartickNov 16, 2019CHA

3.2 goals/game avg

League Table

Championship 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
2	Partick Thistle Promotion - Premiership (Promotion: Semi-finals)	11	6	4	1	12-4	22	DWWWD
1	Stenhousemuir Promotion - Premiership	10	7	2	1	13-5	23	DLWWW

1pt gap between teamsStenhousemuir leads the league

Recent Form

Partick Thistle

D1-1DunfermlineOct 20CHA

W1-0Ayr UtdOct 16CHA

W2-1LivingstonOct 10CHA

W3-0ArbroathOct 3CHA

D0-0Raith RoversSep 19CHA

L0-1StenhousemuirSep 15CHA

W1-0Ayr UtdSep 5CHA

D0-0Queen's ParkAug 29CHA

D1-1Inverness CTAug 21CHA

L0-1HibernianAug 16LEA

W2-0LivingstonAug 7CHA

W1-0MortonAug 1CHA

D2-2ClydebankJul 26FRI

W4-0Forfar AthleticJul 14LEA

W6-0BrechinJul 11LEA

Stenhousemuir

D1-1Raith RoversOct 17CHA

L0-2Inverness CTOct 10CHA

W1-0Ayr UtdSep 25CHA

W1-0ArbroathSep 19CHA

W1-0PartickSep 15CHA

L0-3Heart Of MidlothianSep 11LEA

W1-0LivingstonSep 4CHA

W3-1Inverness CTAug 29CHA

W2-0Queen's ParkAug 22CHA

W2-0MortonAug 8CHA

D1-1Raith RoversAug 1CHA

W2-1BrechinJul 18LEA

W2-0Forfar AthleticJul 11LEA

L0-1Alloa AthleticMay 16CHA

W3-1Alloa AthleticMay 13CHA

Squad & Injuries

Partick Thistle

26 available

Attackers7

Midfielders7

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3

Stenhousemuir

25 available

Attackers4

Midfielders8

Defenders11

Goalkeeper2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw or Stenhousemuir

Under 2.5

No

Stenhousemuir

Draw

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

Result3 of 5 landed

Goals3 of 6 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Partick Thistle

Stenhousemuir

Squad & Injuries

Partick Thistle

Stenhousemuir