Raja Casablanca1Hassania Agadir1

HT 0–0Wed 28 Oct 2026, 18:00 Predictions graded

Predictions5–363%

Edges1–150%

PossPossession 61%–39%ShotsShots 13–9On targetOn target 3–4CornersCorners 5–2

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 27 Oct 2026, 15:16 · Europe/Bucharest

Raja Casablanca have won all five listed meetings with Hassania Agadir, yet Hassania arrive with two wins from two away league games and eight goals on the road.

Raja avoiding defeat is the likelier result, but the 1.13 for Raja or draw needs an 88.5% chance to break even and is not worth taking, and 1.40 for a first-half goal falls short too. No quoted price is worthwhile.

Context

Raja confirmed on 26 October that the fixture had moved from Mohammed V Sports Complex to Al Arabi Zaouli Stadium because of maintenance work. The change alters the listed match venue less than two days before kickoff and comes with special crowd-access arrangements at the lower-capacity ground. That can affect the matchday environment and each side's usual preparation for the host venue. Raja's notice does not indicate any change to the pitch specification, squad availability or tactical plan.
- Raja's official account announced on 26 October that Mohammed V Sports Complex had closed for maintenance and the match would instead be played at Al Arabi Zaouli Stadium.
- The club said that exceptional spectator-access arrangements had been coordinated with local and security authorities because of the replacement venue's limited capacity.
ConfirmedSources checked 27 Oct 2026, 15:13 · Europe/Bucharest
The July result is a single game, but it fits a fixture that has repeatedly ended with Raja on the right side of a tight scoreline. Hassania's two away wins and eight away goals this season are the main reason to expect a closer contest this time.
- 2 July 2026, Botola Pro: Raja Casablanca 2-0 Hassania Agadir.
Hassania's road form is the clearest reason this is not a straightforward home assignment: they have turned away trips into points and goals rather than sitting deep. The same four-game sample shows a 1-2 home loss to Maghreb Fès on 3 October, so the run is short and uneven.
- Standings as of 27 October 2026: Hassania Agadir have 7 points from 4 Botola Pro matches in 2026 (2W-1D-1L), with 2 wins from 2 away games, 8 goals scored and 4 conceded on the road.
- The same snapshot lists Raja Casablanca on 5 points from 3 league matches (1W-2D-0L).
That afternoon is the outlier in Hassania's recent run: five goals in a single away match after largely single-goal outputs elsewhere in the sample. It shows the ceiling of their road attack and is the strongest counterpoint to a low-scoring read on this fixture.
- 8 October 2026, Botola Pro: CR Khemis Zemamra 2-5 Hassania Agadir; Hassania led 3-2 at half-time and scored twice in the second half.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Raja Casablanca or Draw

1.13fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 88.5%

−16.5ppshort

Raja's home solidity and clean head-to-head edge make them hard to beat, even if the venue has changed.

1st Half GoalslostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.40fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 71.4%

−6.4ppshort

Recent first-half records for both sides suggest the opening period is more likely than not to contain a goal.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.13
The read
Raja's home solidity and clean head-to-head edge make them hard to beat, even if the venue has changed.
- Raja are unbeaten in 12 of 15 tracked matches (7W-5D-3L).
- At home Raja are 4W-1D-1L in six matches, conceding 0.50 per game.
- Raja have won all five listed head-to-head meetings, including 2-0 in July.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonRaja Casablanca or DrawEstimated chance72%

Goals2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Raja's home games have been low-scoring and the head-to-head pattern is mostly tight.
- Raja's home split averages 1.83 total goals per match (1.33 for, 0.50 against).
- Three of the last five head-to-heads finished under 2.5 goals.
- Raja kept a clean sheet in three of six home matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Raja's home clean-sheet record and Hassania's blanks in this fixture point to at least one side failing to score.
- Raja kept clean sheets in three of six home matches.
- Only two of Raja's six home matches had both teams scoring.
- Hassania failed to score in three of the five listed head-to-heads.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Recent first-half records for both sides suggest the opening period is more likely than not to contain a goal.
- Hassania's last six matches produced first-half goals in five of six.
- Raja's last six matches produced first-half goals in four of six.
- Hassania average 0.86 first-half goals away from home.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Raja have not been prolific at home, so two or more home goals is less likely.
- Raja's overall goals-for average is 1.33 per match.
- Raja's home split lists five goals scored across six home matches.
- Raja have been held to one goal or fewer in three of their last six matches.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonRaja Casablanca under 1.5Estimated chance62%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' tracked matches have generated enough shots on target for over five and a half to be likely.
- Raja's tracked matches average 9.0 total shots on target (2.33 for, 6.67 against).
- Hassania's tracked matches average 6.3 total shots on target (3.33 for, 3.0 against).
- Raja's one tracked home match had 11 shots on target combined (4 for, 7 against).
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 5.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' tracked matches show combined corner counts just above five and a half.
- Raja's tracked matches average 6.0 total corners (2.67 for, 3.33 against).
- Hassania's tracked matches average 6.3 total corners (2.33 for, 4.0 against).
- The one tracked Raja home match had eight corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 5.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The card counts in both teams' tracked matches have generally stayed below four and a half.
- Raja's tracked matches average 4.5 total yellow cards (2.25 for, 2.25 against).
- Hassania's tracked matches average 3.5 total yellow cards (2.0 for, 1.5 against).
- Hassania have no red cards in six tracked matches.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostUnder 4.5Estimated chance55%

Prediction history

Raja Casablanca: 6/8 recent goals projections matched

6 of 8 comparable goals projections involving Raja Casablanca matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Raja Casablanca8 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

5 Jul·Botola Pro