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Predictions graded

Hassania Agadir1KAC Marrakech1

HT 1–1Sun 5 Jul 2026, 17:00 Predictions graded

Predictions3–350%

Edges2–167%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 4 Jul 2026, 07:07 · Europe/Bucharest

Hassania Agadir's relegation pressure meets KAC Marrakech's safety in a final-day clash where motivation is lopsided but the data favors a low-scoring draw.

The best value is in under 2.5 goals (edge +5.5pts) and halftime draw (edge +9pts), while the home win is overpriced and should be avoided.

Context

Hassania have 32 points, only two more than 13th-placed Olympique Dcheira (30).
- Botola's first tie-breaker is head-to-head goal difference, so Hassania are not mathematically safe.
- KAC Marrakech are 10th on 35 points and cannot be caught by the bottom three.
Amir Abdou departed on 1 March 2026 to take the Burkina Faso national team job.
- Hilal Et-Tair was installed as head coach on 10 March 2026.
- KAC Marrakech have had Hicham Dmiai in charge since October 2025, giving them more coaching continuity.
KAC away record: 1 win, 6 draws, 7 losses.
- They have scored only 7 goals in 14 away games, averaging 0.5 per match.
- In their last five away matches, KAC have drawn twice and lost three times, all by narrow margins.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Hassania Agadir's final-day relegation pressure (Motivation/Stakes) and superior home form against KAC Marrakech's poor away record give them a moderate edge to win.
- Hassania Agadir home record: 5W-4D-5L, 13 goals scored, 15 conceded in 14 matches.
- KAC Marrakech away record: 1W-6D-7L, 7 goals scored, 14 conceded in 14 matches.
- Hassania Agadir last 5 matches: 2W-2D-1L, including home wins vs UTS Rabat and Renaissance Berkane.
- KAC Marrakech last 5 matches: 1W-2D-2L, with away losses to FAR Rabat and Olympique Safi.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostHassania AgadirEstimated chance40%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
KAC Marrakech's extremely poor away form (1 win all season) and Hassania Agadir's need to avoid defeat to secure safety (Motivation/Stakes) make a home win or draw highly likely.
- KAC Marrakech away record: only 1 win in 14 away matches (7% win rate).
- Hassania Agadir home record: 5 wins, 4 draws, 5 losses; 64% of home matches without defeat.
- Hassania Agadir last 5 home matches: 3W-1D-1L.
- KAC Marrakech last 5 away matches: 0W-2D-3L.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonHassania Agadir or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a high frequency of drawing at halftime, and the tense, must-not-lose dynamic for Hassania Agadir (Motivation/Stakes) encourages a slow start, making a halftime draw the most probable outcome.
- Hassania Agadir halftime results: 20% leading, 20% trailing, 60% drawing.
- KAC Marrakech halftime results: 27% leading, 27% trailing, 46% drawing.
- Hassania Agadir last 5 matches: 4 draws at halftime.
- KAC Marrakech last 5 matches: 2 draws, 2 losses, 1 win at halftime.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
If the match is tight at halftime, Hassania Agadir's greater urgency (Motivation/Stakes) and home advantage could see them push for a decisive second-half goal, though the low overall scoring makes this a low-confidence call.
- Hassania Agadir home matches: 5 wins, often decided by narrow margins.
- KAC Marrakech away matches: only 1 win, with 7 losses, many by a single goal.
- Hassania Agadir last 5 matches: 2 second-half comebacks to win/draw.
- KAC Marrakech last 5 matches: conceded second-half goals in 3 of 5.
BetBugs · Second Half Winnernot gradableHassania AgadirEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at halftime followed by a Hassania Agadir win is a plausible scenario given their need to push for a result (Motivation/Stakes) and KAC Marrakech's tendency to fade away from home, though the low probability reflects the difficulty of predicting exact sequences.
- Hassania Agadir home matches: 4 draws at halftime, 2 converted to wins.
- KAC Marrakech away matches: 6 draws at halftime, none converted to wins.
- Hassania Agadir last 5 matches: 2 instances of drawing at halftime and winning full time.
- KAC Marrakech last 5 matches: 0 instances of drawing at halftime and winning full time.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw / Hassania AgadirEstimated chance25%

Goals1 of 3 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low-scoring profiles, especially in their respective home/away splits, and recent form shows a strong trend toward under 2.5 goals, reinforced by the cautious nature of a relegation-deciding fixture.
- Hassania Agadir home matches: 13 goals scored, 15 conceded in 14 games (avg 2.0 total goals).
- KAC Marrakech away matches: 7 goals scored, 14 conceded in 14 games (avg 1.5 total goals).
- Hassania Agadir last 5 matches: 4 of 5 had under 2.5 goals.
- KAC Marrakech last 5 matches: 4 of 5 had under 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
KAC Marrakech's away scoring struggles (only 7 goals in 14 away games) and the high-stakes context (Motivation/Stakes) likely leading to a tight, low-scoring affair suggest at least one team will fail to score.
- KAC Marrakech away: scored in only 5 of 14 away matches (36%), conceded in 10 of 14 (71%).
- Hassania Agadir home: scored in 9 of 14 home matches (64%), conceded in 9 of 14 (64%).
- Hassania Agadir last 5 matches: both teams scored in 2 of 5.
- KAC Marrakech last 5 matches: both teams scored in 2 of 5.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average only 0.5 first-half goals and frequently go into halftime scoreless, a pattern likely to continue given the cautious approach expected in a relegation-pressure match (Motivation/Stakes).
- Hassania Agadir first half goals: 0.5 per game average; only 20% of matches led at halftime.
- KAC Marrakech first half goals: 0.5 per game average; 27% led at halftime.
- Hassania Agadir last 5 matches: 0 first-half goals in 3 of 5.
- KAC Marrakech last 5 matches: 0 first-half goals in 3 of 5.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Limited corner data suggests both teams generate few corners, and a low-event match is expected, but the evidence is sparse, warranting low confidence.
- Hassania Agadir average corners: 2.0 per game (limited data).
- KAC Marrakech average corners: 1.5 per game (limited data).
- Hassania Agadir last match with corner data: 4 corners vs Raja Casablanca.
- KAC Marrakech last match with corner data: 3 corners vs Maghreb Fès.
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableUnder 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Hassania Agadir's high card average and the tense, high-stakes nature of the match (Motivation/Stakes) could push total cards over 3.5, though KAC Marrakech's lower card count and limited data make this a low-confidence prediction.
- Hassania Agadir average yellow cards: 2.7 per game; red cards: 0.2 per game.
- KAC Marrakech average yellow cards: 1.5 per game; red cards: 0.0 per game.
- Hassania Agadir last 5 matches with card data: 3+ cards in 4 of 5.
- KAC Marrakech last 5 matches with card data: 3+ cards in 2 of 5.
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableOver 3.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 4 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

2W · 1D · 2W

L2-1Kawkab MarrakechvHassania AgadirMar 7, 2026BOT

L0-2Hassania AgadirvKawkab MarrakechAug 29, 2025FRI

W1-2Kawkab MarrakechvHassania AgadirMar 27, 2024CUP

D1-1Kawkab MarrakechvHassania AgadirMar 3, 2021CUP

W5-1Hassania AgadirvKawkab MarrakechMar 27, 2019BOT

3.2 goals/game avg

League Table

Botola Pro 2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
12	Hassania Agadir	28	8	8	12	26-36	32	DDWLW
9	KAC Marrakech	28	8	10	10	26-25	34	DWLLL

2pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Hassania Agadir

L0-2Raja CasablancaJul 2BOT

D1-1CR Khemis ZemamraJun 28BOT

D0-0CODM MeknèsJun 25BOT

W1-0UTS RabatJun 21BOT

L1-2Yacoub El MansourJun 18BOT

W1-0Renaissance BerkaneJun 14BOT

W1-0Olympique DcheïraJun 8BOT

D0-0FUS RabatJun 4BOT

L2-3Wydad ACMay 23BOT

L2-3FAR RabatMay 10BOT

D2-2Difaa EL JadidaMay 7BOT

W2-1Olympique SafiMay 4BOT

L0-4Maghreb FèsApr 29BOT

D1-1Ittihad TangerApr 25BOT

L1-2Kawkab MarrakechMar 7BOT

KAC Marrakech

D0-0Maghreb FèsJul 2BOT

D1-1Difaa EL JadidaJun 28BOT

W2-0FUS RabatJun 25BOT

L0-2FAR RabatJun 21BOT

L0-2Ittihad TangerJun 17BOT

L0-1Olympique SafiJun 12BOT

W2-0Raja CasablancaJun 9BOT

D0-0UTS RabatJun 1BOT

W3-1CODM MeknèsMay 22BOT

W3-1Riadi SalmiMay 15CUP

L1-2Yacoub El MansourMay 11BOT

L1-2CR Khemis ZemamraMay 8BOT

W2-1Olympique DcheïraMay 4BOT

W1-0Renaissance BerkaneApr 30BOT

D0-0Wydad ACApr 25BOT

Squad & Injuries

Hassania Agadir

34 available

Attackers7

Midfielders12

Defenders11

Goalkeeper4

KAC Marrakech

30 available

Attackers10

Midfielders8

Defenders10

Goalkeeper2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw

Under 2.5

Under 0.5

Hassania Agadir or Draw

Result2 of 3 landed

Goals1 of 3 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

Hassania Agadir

No

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Hassania Agadir

KAC Marrakech

Squad & Injuries

Hassania Agadir

KAC Marrakech