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Predictions graded

Hassania Agadir1RCA Zemamra1

HT 1–0Sun 28 Jun 2026, 17:00 Predictions graded

Predictions4–357%

Edges2–167%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 27 Jun 2026, 08:57 · Europe/Bucharest

A relegation six-pointer between two low-scoring, coach-troubled sides points to a tight, cagey draw.

The strongest betting edges are under 2.5 goals (+8.3pts), first-half under 0.5 goals (+23.0pts), and over 4.5 total cards (+15.6pts). Avoid the home double chance, which is overpriced despite the directional lean.

Context

Both teams are just above the relegation play-off place (UTS Rabat on 24 pts).
- Botola Pro rules state head-to-head goal difference is the first tiebreaker when teams are level on points.
- The last meeting this season ended 0-0, so a win here could be decisive in a tie.
Hassania's Amir Abdou left for Burkina Faso on 1 March 2026; Hilal Et-Tair took over on 10 March.
- Zemamra sacked Redouane El Haimeur in October 2025, hired Mohamed Fakhir in January 2026, then sacked him in February and reverted to caretaker Mehdi Mrani Alaoui.
- Both teams are playing under their second coach of the season, which can affect tactical consistency.
Zemamra's 13 away games: 5 wins, 0 draws, 8 losses.
- They have scored 14 and conceded 21 away, averaging 2.69 total goals per away game.
- Hassania's home record is 5 wins, 3 draws, 5 losses, showing they can be held.
Last 5 H2H: 0-0, 2-0, 0-1, 3-0, 2-2; only one match had over 2.5 goals.
- Both teams scored in only 1 of those 5 matches.
- The most recent meeting (Feb 2026) was a 0-0 draw at Zemamra.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
High-stakes survival match between two evenly matched, low-scoring sides with a recent H2H pattern of tight draws, making a stalemate the most probable outcome.
- H2H last 5: 2 draws, 2 home wins, 1 away win; 3 of 5 under 2.5 goals
- Hassania Agadir home record: 5W-3D-5L (13 matches), 12 goals scored, 14 conceded
- RCA Zemamra away record: 5W-0D-8L (13 matches), 14 goals scored, 21 conceded
- Both teams average ~1 goal scored per game overall, with negative goal differences
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Hassania Agadir's solid recent home form and Zemamra's inability to draw away tilt the double chance toward the home side, especially in a pressure match where avoiding defeat is crucial.
- Hassania Agadir home form last 5: 3W-1D-1L, including wins vs Renaissance Berkane and UTS Rabat
- RCA Zemamra away form last 5: 2W-0D-3L, with losses at Ittihad Tanger, Renaissance Berkane, and Difaa EL Jadida
- Hassania Agadir have lost only 5 of 13 home matches this season
- Zemamra have no draws away from home (0 in 13), suggesting they either win or lose
BetBugs · Double ChancewonHassania Agadir or DrawEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
With both teams showing a strong tendency to be level at half-time and very low first-half scoring, a draw at the break is the most probable outcome.
- Hassania Agadir half-time results: 13% lead, 33% trail, 54% draw
- RCA Zemamra half-time results: 13% lead, 33% trail, 54% draw
- H2H last 5 first halves: 0-0, 0-0, 0-0, 1-0, 1-1 (3 scoreless draws)
- Both teams average under 0.5 first-half goals
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While a draw in the second half is plausible given the teams' parity, the low confidence reflects the potential for a late winner from either side in a must-not-lose scenario.
- Hassania Agadir second half record: 4W-5D-4L in last 13 home matches (estimated)
- RCA Zemamra second half record: 3W-2D-8L in last 13 away matches (estimated)
- Both teams have negative goal differences and similar second-half performance
- High stakes likely lead to cautious second halves if score is close
BetBugs · Second Half Winnernot gradableDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Although a full-time draw is the most likely single result, the specific HT-FT combination of Draw/Draw has low historical frequency for both sides, making it a low-probability but possible outcome.
- Hassania Agadir home HT-FT: 2 Draw/Draw in 13 home matches (15%)
- RCA Zemamra away HT-FT: 0 Draw/Draw in 13 away matches (0%)
- H2H last 5: 1 Draw/Draw (0-0 in Feb 2026)
- Both teams draw ~25% of matches overall
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw/DrawEstimated chance25%

Goals2 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams struggle to score consistently, and the high-stakes nature of this relegation battle typically produces cautious, low-scoring affairs, strongly supporting under 2.5 goals.
- Hassania Agadir home matches: 12 goals scored, 14 conceded in 13 games (avg 2.0 total goals)
- RCA Zemamra away matches: 14 goals scored, 21 conceded in 13 games (avg 2.69 total goals), but 8 of 13 away games had under 2.5 goals
- H2H last 5: 0-0, 2-0, 0-1, 3-0, 2-2; 3 of 5 under 2.5 goals
- Both teams average under 1.0 goals scored per game overall this season
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Despite both teams occasionally finding the net, the historical H2H trend and the low-scoring nature of both sides in pressure situations suggest at least one team will fail to score.
- Hassania Agadir home: scored in 9 of 13, conceded in 9 of 13; both teams scored in 6 of 13 (46%)
- RCA Zemamra away: scored in 9 of 13, conceded in 11 of 13; both teams scored in 7 of 13 (54%)
- H2H last 5: both teams scored in only 1 of 5 matches
- Both teams average under 1.0 goals scored per game, with negative goal differences
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have extremely low first-half scoring rates and frequently go into the break level, making a 0-0 half-time score highly likely in this tense survival clash.
- Hassania Agadir first half goals: 0.4 per game; first half goals conceded: 0.6 per game
- RCA Zemamra first half goals: 0.3 per game; first half goals conceded: 0.6 per game
- Hassania Agadir led at half-time in only 13% of matches, trailed in 33%
- RCA Zemamra led at half-time in 13% of matches, trailed in 33%
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
As the match opens up in the second half due to fatigue and urgency, at least one goal is likely, consistent with both teams' higher second-half scoring and conceding rates.
- Hassania Agadir second half goals: 0.6 per game (1.0 total - 0.4 first half)
- RCA Zemamra second half goals: 0.9 per game (1.2 total - 0.3 first half)
- H2H last 5: second half goals in 4 of 5 matches
- Both teams concede more in second halves (Hassania 0.8, Zemamra 0.7 second half conceded)
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 0.5Estimated chance70%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average a high number of yellow cards, and the intense pressure of a direct relegation rival match is likely to push the total cards over 4.5.
- Hassania Agadir average 2.4 yellow cards per game, with 0.2 red cards
- RCA Zemamra average 2.9 yellow cards per game, with 0.1 red cards
- Combined average of 5.3 cards per game across both teams
- High-stakes relegation battle typically increases disciplinary actions
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Hassania Agadir's disciplinary record at home and the combative nature of the match suggest they may exceed 2.5 cards, though the low confidence reflects variability in officiating.
- Hassania Agadir average 2.4 yellow cards per game overall
- Home matches: 2.3 yellow cards per game (estimated from 30 cards in 13 home games)
- Recent home matches: 3, 4, 3, 3, 0 yellow cards in last 5 home games
- Zemamra opponents average 2.9 yellow cards per game away
BetBugs · Home Cards Over/Undernot gradableHassania Agadir over 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Zemamra's consistently high card count, especially away from home, makes over 2.5 cards likely as they battle to contain Hassania's attacks in a tense environment.
- RCA Zemamra average 2.9 yellow cards per game overall
- Away matches: 3.2 yellow cards per game (estimated from 42 cards in 13 away games)
- Recent away matches: 3, 2, 4, 4, 2 yellow cards in last 5 away games
- Hassania Agadir opponents average 2.4 yellow cards per game at home
BetBugs · Away Cards Over/Undernot gradableRCA Zemamra over 2.5Estimated chance60%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 3 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

0W · 2D · 3W

D0-0CR Khemis ZemamravHassania AgadirFeb 22, 2026BOT

L2-0CR Khemis ZemamravHassania AgadirJan 12, 2025BOT

L0-1Hassania AgadirvCR Khemis ZemamraSep 21, 2024BOT

L3-0CR Khemis ZemamravHassania AgadirMar 2, 2024BOT

D2-2Hassania AgadirvCR Khemis ZemamraOct 28, 2023BOT

RCA Zemamra unbeaten in 5 meetingsRCA Zemamra: 4 clean sheets2 goals/game avg

League Table

Botola Pro 2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
11	Hassania Agadir	27	8	7	12	25-35	31	DWLWW
12	RCA Zemamra	27	8	6	13	26-35	30	DLLWL

1pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Hassania Agadir

D0-0CODM MeknèsJun 25BOT

W1-0UTS RabatJun 21BOT

L1-2Yacoub El MansourJun 18BOT

W1-0Renaissance BerkaneJun 14BOT

W1-0Olympique DcheïraJun 8BOT

D0-0FUS RabatJun 4BOT

L2-3Wydad ACMay 23BOT

L2-3FAR RabatMay 10BOT

D2-2Difaa EL JadidaMay 7BOT

W2-1Olympique SafiMay 4BOT

L0-4Maghreb FèsApr 29BOT

D1-1Ittihad TangerApr 25BOT

L1-2Kawkab MarrakechMar 7BOT

L1-2Renaissance BerkaneMar 4BOT

L0-1Raja CasablancaMar 1BOT

RCA Zemamra

D1-1Olympique SafiJun 25BOT

L0-1Ittihad TangerJun 21BOT

L3-4Raja CasablancaJun 17BOT

W2-1CODM MeknèsJun 12BOT

L0-1UTS RabatJun 9BOT

W2-1Yacoub El MansourJun 3BOT

L0-1Renaissance BerkaneMay 24BOT

D0-0Olympique DcheïraMay 11BOT

W2-1Kawkab MarrakechMay 8BOT

W1-0Wydad ACMay 3BOT

L1-2Difaa EL JadidaApr 30BOT

L1-2Maghreb FèsApr 26BOT

W3-1Olympique SafiApr 22BOT

D0-0FAR RabatMar 7BOT

L2-3FUS RabatMar 1BOT

Squad & Injuries

Hassania Agadir

34 available

Attackers7

Midfielders12

Defenders11

Goalkeeper4

RCA Zemamra

30 available

Attackers8

Midfielders8

Defenders11

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw

Draw

Under 2.5

Under 0.5

Over 4.5

RCA Zemamra over 2.5

Result2 of 3 landed

Goals2 of 4 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

Hassania Agadir or Draw

Over 0.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Hassania Agadir

RCA Zemamra

Squad & Injuries

Hassania Agadir

RCA Zemamra